An Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack? I'm skeptical.
The subject at hand is Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) as a military weapon; that is, an electromagnetic pulse generated by the detonation of an atomic bomb at an altitude of 15 to 250 miles over the center of the United States.
Parts and pieces for this page have been floating around on this website for years, and I've finally made an attempt to organize it for presentation as a topic of its own. At the same time, I'm doing a little research to back up my assumptions, which is what the internet is for.
What I have found is that an atomic weapon was set off at an altitude of 250 miles for a project called Starfish Prime in the summer of 1962. At the moment of the explosion, strings of street lights blew their fuses in Hawaii, and (AM) radio reception was poor-to-none for about 15 minutes, but apparently that was the bulk of the immediate damage. The bomb used in Starfish Prime was a 1.4-megaton fusion device, which is a weapon that only a handful of countries have ever built. As far as I know, only the U.S. and three or four other countries have ever tested a weapon of that caliber, and those countries do not include North Korea or Iran.
Based on decades of observing the news media and the constant expansion of the federal budget (based largely on crises that don't exist), my opinion is that EMP isn't nearly the doomsday threat that the news media says it is.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), if
it is pointed in our direction, would be far worse than EMP, and would be impossible to predict, deflect, or prevent. A CME would
be far more likely to knock out electric power systems on a grand scale; but even then, we wouldn't be killed immediately, just set back
to about 1875, and some of us would be well prepared to deal with the complete loss of electricity. And gasoline, and food, and
clean water.
Grain of salt: I have no formal credentials in the areas of physics, chemistry, or electrical engineering. But I do have healthy skepticism, common sense, and decades of experience with the news media. My assertions below may be entirely wrong, or one hundred percent correct. Take them for what they're worth.
Here is the outline:
I. An EMP attack is unlikely
A. Only a few other countries have atomic weapons
1. Those who do would probably prefer to use the explosive force of the weapon instead of its electromagnetic impact.
B. Few other countries have rockets or balloons that could deliver such a weapon to the middle of North America.
C. Few other countries are so hostile to the U.S. that they would risk retaliation.
D. Atomic weapons are too expensive to be used repeatedly, so the first attack is gonna have to work really well.
1. If it is a surprise attack, they would have to be absolutely sure that the EMP effect outweighs the explosive effect.
E. The people who seem to be the most agitated about EMP threats are also afraid of global warming and dozens of other things.
F. The EMP activists are in a big hurry to spend the taxpayers' money without first proving that a threat exists.
G. It could be that my optimism is unfounded, because of facts and experiments that are not in the public domain (military secrets).
II. An EMP attack is unlikely to succeed
A. Nobody has ever tried it, as far as I know.
1. But everyone (i.e., politicians and columnists) seems absolutely sure it will work the first time.
2. If anybody has tried EMP as a weapon, it went unnoticed!
3. During the atomic bomb tests of the 1950s, did anybody's telephones or radios quit working?
B. Lightning protection is EMP protection.
1. Power lines get hit by lightning often, and the resulting outages are almost always small and isolated.
2. Lightning can strike the top of a power pole and knock splinters off it without interrupting the utility power.
3. Computers that operate on uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) are well protected from surges on the power line.
C. Landline telephones are mostly connected by optical fiber, which is non-conductive.
D. Cellular telephones have a broad range of exposure to an EMP threat at any moment, depending on their location.
1. Cell phones that are underground or in the interior of an office building are fairly safe.
2. Cell phones that outdoors and exposed to the sky are not protected.
E. Your personal computer is in a shielded box
1. which prevents it from radiating signals that might interfere with other services, and
2. this shielding keeps unwanted signals OUT just as well as it keeps them IN.
3. Its only connection to an antenna is for wi-fi or bluetooth.
F. Every component of the power grid is designed to pass 60-Hertz power, not sub-microsecond pulses.
1. Electric power is delivered through transformers (and fuses). Power transformers have limited high-frequency (pulse) response.
G. All the big data centers and phone companies are hardened already.
H. Communications satellites are probably quite vulnerable, but
1. as noted above, the countries with one or two atomic weapons are unlikely to use them for EMP instead of destroying cities.
J. The power grid is fairly rugged (for the purposes of this topic)
1. The power grid is often described as near collapse, but that's because it accepts power from multiple intermittent sources like windmills and solar panels
2. The only devices affected by EMP would be those that are most sensitive and connected to antennas, i.e., TV's and cell phones.
K. Most of the energy from an atomic weapon detonated in space would radiate away from the earth; thus,
1. only a fraction of the energy released would affect us, and
2. any electromagnetic energy absorbed by lakes and pastures and mountain ranges would have no consequences.
III. If an EMP attack happens
A. It is unlikely to be completely unexpected and unannounced
1. It takes time for intercontinental missiles to arrive, and the U.S. is well separated from other hostile countries.
a. Assuming we aren't attacked by Mexico or Canada.
2. Even a few minutes advanced notice would allow interconnected systems to be isolated, so they don't bring each other down.
B. Even if such an attack succeeds
1. The results could vary widely:
a. Best case: Nobody notices, and some hostile country wasted a nuke, or it wasn't big enough.
b. Bad case:
i. Cell phones and TV sets are damaged, but the utility power stays on.
c. Very bad case:
i. Some computer networks and equipment fail, too. This is unlikely, in my opinion.
ii. Maybe some other electronic systems fail unexpectedly, like your new car's computer or electronic ignition.
iii. What's likely to keep working:
A. Vacuum tube radios. But you don't have one.
B. A portable generator. Everybody talks about getting one, but hardly anybody does.
iv. The government will almost certainly use an event like this to justify all kinds of tyranny.
A. They learned this from the Covid years.
B. Call me a paranoid nut case, but it wouldn't surprise me if our own government staged an EMP attack, merely to justify tyranny.
d. Worst case: Utility power goes out for a while.
i. This is extremely unlikely, in my opinion.
A. The power distribution system is designed to pass 60 Hertz, not sub-microsecond pulses.
B. Utility power is protected against lightning (and surges) with fuses and circuit breakers.
C. The distributed resistance and reactance in the wires themselves would quench transient spikes.
ii. This is why you shouldn't make fun of "preppers."
iii. Your biggest hazard at that point is probably looters, so perpare accordingly.
2. You'll be surprised at the number of things you own with warranties that are voided by acts of war.
3. Mass media is unlikely to be of any help
a. TV news readers don't understand technical topics -- and many of them boast about their ignorance!
b. TV news readers think you understand less than they do, which is why they expain everything in one-syllable words
c. TV news readers are very reluctant to make any assertions of facts without attributing them to some government official.
i. Government officials and academic "experts" have the final word on any alleged facts.
ii. This is because of lawyers: Nobody can afford to be wrong, so they err on the side of caution.
d. When was the last time your local TV news team told you anything of substance that you didn't already know, or that wasn't self-evident?
e. If the impact is severe, mass communication might be scarce for a while.
f. Be wary of everything you hear on social media, if that's your only source of news.
g. If you suddenly can't pick up any TV stations,
i. TV stations have generators and backup systems, at least in big cities.
ii. If you were getting 55 channels yesterday, but now you see none, your TV is broken.
4. If half of the TV sets in town stop working
a. You're back in 1947. Would that be so bad?
i. You might have to read a book or take a walk.
ii. Don't you have a portable radio?
iii. Does your car radio still work?
iv. Admit it -- you only leave the TV on because it makes background noise.
b. Perhaps the era of TV repairmen would return, because all the TV sets would have the same problem.
c. TV sets are cheap right now, but they won't be if there's a crowd of people wanting to buy a new one.
d. If you're really worried about EMP, keep your least-used TV disconnected (from power and antenna), so at least that one will work.
5. If half of the cell phones in town stop working
a. Most of the calls you make are unnecessary anyway.
b. About 99 percent of the calls your teenagers make are unnecessary.
c. If the Indian telemarketers can't contact you, aren't you better off?
d. Right now, every ten-year-old in town has a cell phone. This would be your opportunity to re-evaluate that need.
6. Recovery would be fairly quick
a. Nothing has to be re-invented, just repaired or replaced.
b. All the cell phone towers would still be in place, and all the radio frequencies would still be the same.
c. Cell phone repair and replacement would likely be prioritized, with spoiled 10-year-old girls given the lowest priority.
C. If EMP is proven to be an effective weapon (the first time it is used)
1. The U.S. would be in the best position to use it on everybody else
2. The most likely time for the second EMP attack would be as soon as repairs (necessitated by the first one) are completed
3. Every country in the world would soon adapt to EMP and render it useless
4. Everybody will be more self-reliant for the next 50 years or so.
Discussion:
The notion that a single nuclear weapon could produce an electromagnetic pulse that would knock out all the electric power in North America is dubious at best.
1. Those who are the most agitated about this threat are absolutely sure that such an attack would succeed, even though it's never been attempted.
2. The EMP Weapon Threat is very much like the Global Warming hoax or the over-population scare: The whole thing is based on computer simulations, fearmongering, and pessimistic predictions. The entire purpose appears to be the acquisition of taxpayer money to solve a problem we don't have.
3. There are only a few countries with the ability to launch an EMP weapon and detonate it at the right altitude over the right place, and it is unlikely that any of those countries want to gamble that EMP will work the first time. It is much more likely that they would use their weapons to destroy buildings or specific cities.
4. Any time you hear alarmists say, "We've got to do something - quick!" you should beware. All that urgency is a license to spend money without much supervision, e.g., the USA Patriot Act, Obamacare, Ukraine, Global Warming, Green New Deal, sending men back to the Moon, etc.
5. The United States and the USSR used to detonate nuclear weapons above ground, back in the 1950s, and as far as I am aware, those explosions — with a few minor exceptions — didn't knock out nearby electrical or communications systems.
6. I don't think the electric power grid is as fragile as many people make it out to be. The same equipment that protects power equipment from lightning would be highly effective against EMP. The power system is connected through transformers that are designed to pass 60-Hertz energy, not sub-microsecond pulses. The distributed resistance and reactance in power lines would make them rather poor UHF antennas. Your neighborhood power grid is replete with fuses and breakers.
7.
There are more generators -- large and small -- installed in the U.S. than anyone realizes, and power would be systematically restored within a matter of days.
I can't imagine that a single pulse from 1,000 miles away would burn up a 10,000-amp generator at the power station. There just isn't that much energy
released by an atomic bomb, even for a microsecond.
8. Your personal computer is inside a metal case, to keep radio interference inside the box. Shielding works in both directions. The major data centers in the U.S. have been hardened already, with EMP in mind.
9. Even IF every last cell phone tower were to be blown out by EMP, they could all be quickly rebuilt, because the technology has already been debugged, spare parts are surely on hand, and the towers would still be in place.
Background information:
Why
the U.S. once set off a nuclear bomb in space. The results from the 1962 Starfish Prime test serve as a
warning of what might happen if Earth's magnetic field gets blasted again with high doses of radiation.
Typical news articles on this subject or closely-related subjects:
The
First 24 Hours After an EMP. For example, if there was a moderate earthquake in
San Francisco, then FEMA and the California National Guard and 100 other agencies would
immediately respond. [...] Although there would be localized violence and crime in this scenario,
most people would know that aid was coming and the nation would do everything it could to
help. The situation would be vastly different with the second type of disaster. This is
when catastrophe strikes and there's little hope for aid from the government or anyone else.
For example, terrorists or a rogue nation launch an EMP attack, and the nationwide power grid is
down long-term. Or, a major solar storm takes out the grid. In those scenarios, police
won't arrive because the pumps don't work and there is no gas. The government can't help
because it, too, is without power and gasoline. Millions of people would be desperate, and
most of the nation's food would spoil in a matter of days.
The Editor says...
The writer of the article above assumes that all the rumors about the effectiveness of EMP weapons are
true. The damage caused by EMP weapons is entirely hypothetical at this point. It is
as if multiple writers across the country have all watched the same apocalyptic movie over and
over, and are convinced an EMP attack is a huge threat — but no such movie has been made,
as far as I know.
The
coming terrorist attacks. One terrorist attack vector ignored by the
Biden — now Harris — Administration is electromagnetic pulse —
EMP — attacks. Such weapons, which can be quite small, have the potential to
return parts of America to the pre-industrial age in a millisecond. Properly employed, they
fry anything electronic — cars, watches, cell service, electric generation and
dispersal, medical devices, refrigerators, computers, anything electronic within range of the
detonation will be instantly destroyed. Ironically, electric vehicles would be
scrapped. There would be no rebooting of unshielded electronics. All would have to be
replaced or repaired. Repairmen would be overwhelmed, and the supply chain shut down.
The destruction of everything that makes modern life possible would kill hundreds of thousands,
even millions, while leaving the trappings of civilization intact.
The Editor says...
How does the writer know all this is true? What makes everyone so sure an EMP weapon will work
perfectly the first time it is used? [#2] This "small" EMP weapon is something new.
If it is something designed to target an office building, then [a] this isn't a nuke that's going to be
detonated 100 miles over Nashville, and [b] the weapon is probably only a threat to a single
building. How is the destruction of one building going to bring an end to civilization?
'Even
the cockroaches won't survive': Expert discusses Hezbollah's new EMP weapon. The
Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported that Iran has supplied Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy
forces with electromagnetic ordnance, which can disable communication systems and shut down
radars. Rotem Mey-Tal, CEO of Asgard Systems, a company developing military technology for
the defense industry and the initiator of the "30U30 in Defense" competition for 2024, discussed
the issue. First, what is electromagnetic ordnance? "Describing electromagnetic
ordnance is like talking about something no one has ever seen, but everyone understands exists and
is present in reality — in our case, on the geopolitical and military chessboard of the
Middle East. In essence, imagine lightning striking the building you live in, not hitting a
lightning rod or antenna, but the entire building, causing all the electrical panels, water
heaters, water and electrical systems, household appliances, computers, television systems, and
even life-saving medical systems to stop working. It's like a power outage, but in this case,
the systems can also burn out from the inside like in an electrical short."
Solar
storms are simply no longer a threat. Today's Chicken Little Report: When NOAA
predicted on May 9, 2024 that a powerful solar flare had erupted from the Sun and was aiming a
major solar storm directly at the Earth, the scientists at the federal government's Space Weather
Prediction Center could not help underlining the disaster potential, and were ably aided by the
mainstream press. [...] Yet, the most significant consequence of that storm — the most
powerful to hit the Earth in more than two decades and possibly the most powerful in two
centuries — were the spectacular auroras it generated, some at latitudes farther south
than had been seen in years. There were some minor disruptions in the electrical grid is a
few places, but nothing significant or worrisome.
We
may have just witnessed some of the strongest auroras in 500 years. This month's
ramped-up auroras may have been even more remarkable than we thought. The auroral displays
that wowed observers around the world two weekends ago, including folks as far south as Florida in
the U.S. and Ladakh in northern India, may have been among the strongest such light shows since
record-keeping began. "With reports of auroras visible to as low as 26 degrees magnetic
latitude, this recent storm may compete with some of the lowest-latitude aurora sightings on record
over the past five centuries, though scientists are still assessing this ranking," NASA officials
said in a statement.
US
Power Grid and Communication Networks Survive Extreme Geomagnetic Storm. The Space
Weather Prediction Center of NOAA warned on Friday night [5/10/2024] about an "extreme" G5
geomagnetic storm impacting Earth, which lasted into the early morning hours. While there
have been disruptions in communications, no significant failures in the US power grid have been
reported. Intense solar storms can disrupt the digital economy.
The Editor says...
In regard to that last sentence, when has that ever happened?
No
Major Disruptions to Electric Power Grid Reported as Solar Storm Hits Earth. A
powerful solar storm put on an amazing skyward light show across the globe overnight but has caused
what appeared to be only minor disruptions to the electric power grid, communications, and
satellite positioning systems. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) said extreme geomagnetic storm conditions continued Saturday, and there were preliminary
reports of power grid irregularities, degradation of high-frequency communications and global
positioning systems. But the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said that, so far,
no FEMA region had reported any significant impact from the storms.
For
Half a Century, Our Calculations on Nuclear Explosions in Space Have Been Wrong, Los Alamos
Scientist Reveals. On July 9, 1962, the largest in a series of tests involving
nuclear explosions in space was conducted by the United States. Dubbed Starfish Prime, the
test involved the launch of a W49 thermonuclear warhead developed at Los Alamos from Johnston Atoll
in the Pacific Ocean. The warhead detonated approximately 250 miles above the Earth,
producing belts of radiation as high-energy electrons became trapped, amplifying the magnitude of
the natural Van Allen radiation belt and increasing the potential adverse effects of the trapped
radiation. [...] Following the 1962 Starfish Prime test, the effects of the creation of artificial
radiation belts disabled at least six satellites during the ensuing months, with radiation causing
significant damage to their electronic systems and solar arrays. Among the satellites damaged
were Telstar, the first commercial relay satellite, as well as the Transit Research and Altitude
Control (TRAAC) satellite, Transit 4B, and Ariel 1, the first British-American satellite.
Today, researchers rely on heliophysics models to explore natural phenomena that includes shielding
provided by Earth's magnetic fields against the solar wind and cosmic rays. These models also
help determine the processes underlying how electrons become trapped in the near-Earth environment
following a nuclear explosion in space, forming artificial radiation belts that are capable of
damaging spacecraft in orbit.
Texas'
Winter Electrical Grid Failures Highlight Nation's Vulnerability to EMP Attacks. During the blackout last
month, several million customers were without power in Texas. Indeed, nearly half of the state's electricity production
was interrupted at one time as a result of the record cold temperatures. In the media, scenes flickered across our
(well-powered) screens of the significant challenges facing Texans from the blackout and the weather, including freshwater
shortages and finding warmth in the cold as the blackouts loomed. But severe storms are not the only threat to
America's electrical grid. What happened in Texas could be repeated on a national scale, affecting millions more
Americans — but this time not at the hands of Mother Nature. Instead, it would be at the hands of a foreign
enemy in the form of an electromagnetic pulse — or EMP. An EMP is a large burst of energy that can cause
significant damage to electronics. Human-generated EMPs, which differ from naturally occurring geomagnetic disturbances
(e.g., space weather), are created by artificial sources, which can include a possible premeditated explosion of a nuclear
warhead (or warheads) high above the United States by a rogue state or other international competitor.
New
EMP warning: US will 'cease to exist,' 90 percent of population will die. At a time when the military is
starting to take the potential for an attack on the national electric grid more seriously, a newly declassified report is
warning of an electronic world war launched by Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China that could wipe out North America,
Europe, and Israel. With ease and using a primitive nuclear weapon, a "New Axis" of those aggressive nations could
"black out" the Western world, dismantle all electricity and electronics, end water and food supply, and lead to millions of
deaths in America. "Nine of 10 Americans are dead from starvation, disease, and societal collapse. The United
States of America ceases to exist," warned the report declassified by recently decommissioned U.S. Commission to Assess the
Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack.
Long Overdue
Action on EMP. Much of what we read in the news is trivial. This isn't. I have been hearing about
the threat posed by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) for quite a few years. A high altitude EMP can occur if a nuclear
device is detonated over the Earth's surface. It potentially could wipe out all electrical systems, effectively
disabling the United States. Some estimate that an EMP attack could kill 90 percent of Americans. A number of
countries, including Russia, China and North Korea, are believed to have the ability to detonate weapons creating one or more
EMPs over the U.S.
Congress
[was] warned that NoKo EMP attack could kill 90% of Americans. The House Homeland Security Committee heard expert
testimony yesterday on the effects of a high-altitude nuclear detonation that could knock out the U.S. electrical grid for up
to a year, resulting in the deaths of 90% of Americans. A nuclear attack from space would generate an electromagnetic
pulse, or EMP, that would "inflict devastating damage" on the U.S.
The
Government's Do-Nothing Approach to EMP Threats. EMPs — pulses of electromagnetic energy created by
natural or manmade causes, such as a terrorist attack — have the potential to critically damage our electrical
grid and catastrophically disrupt communications, transportation, emergency services, and food and water supplies, virtually
destroying the world we live in today. Even worse, lives are at stake. According to Dr. Peter Pry, the
executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, EMPs pose "existential threats that could kill 9 of
10 Americans through starvation, disease, and societal collapse."
Survival in the Age of
EMP. An EMP attack is within reach for Iran, North Korea, and perhaps a terrorist organization. These
entities are not necessarily rational and may not be deterred by threats of retaliation, assuming we can even identify the
source of the attack. There are lots of ways to harden our infrastructure against EMP at reasonable cost, but the
government isn't doing anything, and the Obama administration is studiously ignoring the matter, perhaps because it might
make the administration's Iran policy look dangerous or interfere with its clean energy boondoggles.
What
is the deal with those FEMA/DHS AM backup transmitters? Back last February, it was reported that
FEMA/Department of Homeland Security was mysteriously constructing prepackaged AM transmitter buildings at various
PEP (Primary Entry Point) transmitter sites across the country as something call "Primary Entry Point Expansion."
These buildings contain a 5 KW Nautel AM transmitter, EAS gear, satellite equipment (the exact equipment list
is undisclosed) and a backup generator all in a shielded (Faraday Cage), prefabricated building placed inside of a
fenced in compound at the station's transmitter site. The buildings are being put in place, but not connected
to anything in the outside world.
Document location http://akdart.com/emp.html
Updated September 20, 2024.