Synopsis by The Editor:
Under President Obama, bad news about the economy was always unexpected. Under President Trump, good news is always unexpected.
administration touts policy wins in annual report. The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations across
a number of areas, according to the annual Economic Report of the President. That report along with details from the
Council of Economic Advisers shows growth in output, employment, and employee compensation all exceeding pre-2017 forecasts.
Facts About Trump That Are Deadly For Democrats. Trump laid out a long list of his economic achievements in his
State of the Union address, yet there's actually more. As we noted here Tuesday, four days after the speech the Bureau
of Labor Statistics told us the economy created 225,000 more jobs than expected in January. The BLS also announced
average hourly wages grew 3.1% over a year ago, another mark that beat expectations. It was also the 18th straight
month in which wages increased by at least 3%.
Says 291,000 New Jobs in January; It's More Like 336,000. The jobs report from ADP on Wednesday [2/5/2020]
understated job growth in January. Based on its own payrolls, the growth of private employment in the United States
wasn't 291,000. It was actually 336,100 when new jobs created by franchises were included. The new jobs appeared
in every sector of the economy, from small businesses to large and from goods-producing to service-providing. Small
businesses added 94,000 new jobs; medium sized companies added 128,000 while large companies (500 employees and up) added
69,000. Those running franchise operations hired 45,100 new people in January. Construction and manufacturing added
55,000 jobs, while professional and business services hired 49,000. Education added 70,000, while the leisure and
hospitality sector brought on 96,000 new people.
Labor Force Participation at Trump-Era High As Labor Force Grows by 574,000. President Donald Trump never
misses an opportunity to plug the strong employment picture for which he takes credit, and today he earned more bragging
rights: The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy created 225,000 in January, well above estimates.
Jobs Added in January, and Still No Media-Predicted Recession. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
report found that the Trump economy is continuing to pump jobs into the market. And yet, still no evidence of the
recession the liberal media have been howling about. The most recent jobs report found that the U.S. economy added
225,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the month of January, destroying economists' expectations of 158,000 jobs.
U.S. Jobs Top
Estimates With 225,000 Gain, Wages Accelerate. U.S. employers ramped up hiring in January and wage gains
rebounded, providing fresh evidence of a durable jobs market that backs the Federal Reserve's decision to stop cutting
interest rates and hands President Donald Trump an early election-year boost. Payrolls increased by 225,000 after an
upwardly revised 147,000 gain in December, according to a Labor Department data Friday that topped all estimates of economists.
job growth blows past Wall Street's expectations in January with 291,000 added. Private employers added 291,000
jobs in January, soaring past economists' expectations for the best monthly gain in more than five years, according to the
latest ADP National Employment Report. The total far exceeded the 156,000 jobs that economists surveyed by Refinitiv
were expecting. "Mild winter weather provided a significant boost to the January employment gain," Moody's chief
economist Mark Zandi said in a statement. "The leisure and hospitality and construction industries in particular
experienced an outsized increase in jobs."
Housing Starts Jump 16.9% in December, 1.608 Million Units. The Commerce Department announces U.S. housing
starts in December jumped a whopping 16.9 percent in December with 1.608 million units. Blowing away forecast
expectation of 1.375 million units; with the largest gain since 2006.
Claims Unexpectedly Drop 10,000 to 204,000. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment
benefits fell sharply last week. Jobless claims fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ended
January 10. Economists had expected a small rise from 214,000 to 215,000.
Payroll Release: December Employment Jumps +202,000. A new ADP Payroll Report shows job gains of 202,000
from November to December 2019 far surpassing expectations. The increase was the largest gain since April '19: "largest
gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services. Job creation was strong across companies of all
sizes, led predominantly by mid-sized companies."
the stock market collapse after big, bad Iran threatened to destroy the world? Stock markets love global
stability, because no matter where there is instability, chances are good there are funds invested in the region. So it
made sense — somewhat — that oil prices rose following President Donald Trump's decision to send
Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani to hell with a Hellfire missile. But you'd have thought that the entire financial
world was going to collapse. After the strike, "WorldWar3" was trending all over social media despite the fact that the
Iranian regime and military would not last 48 hours under a withering U.S. assault.
Trillion Dollars Repatriated So Far, Reports Commerce Department. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce
American companies have repatriated more than a trillion dollars of their overseas profits since Trump's "tax holiday" was
announced in 2017. As part of his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act corporate profits held overseas would enjoy a one-time levy of just
15.5 percent tax on profits held overseas instead of the punishing 35 percent rate that existed prior. As Walter
Wriston, former chairman and CEO of Citicorp, famously said, "Capital will always go where it's welcome and stay where it's
well treated." But forecasters at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania weren't impressed. They
predicted "that TCJA (Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) will raise [just] $254 billion in revenue over the next ten
years." Instead, Trump's tax law raised four times that amount in just two years.
Aside, Trump Just Had A Great Week. [Scroll down] The past week has also seen a string of still more good
economic news, which suddenly caused mainstream economists to put aside their dire warnings of a recession next year.
Now they are forecasting steady, if modest, growth in 2020.
Unexpected Jobs Boom Leaves Dems Incoherent. Job growth in November came in 79,000 higher than economists had
expected, something that has become a regular occurrence under President Trump, where the economy has repeatedly defied what
the "experts" forecast. [...] How about unemployment? The CBO figured the unemployment rate would be 4.7% by now, and
climbing. Instead, it's now down to 3.5% — the lowest since December 1969.
jobs report is a disaster for doomsayers and Democrats. Friday's November jobs numbers offered another example
of why [the Democrats] cannot discuss the issue with any credibility — and also why their challenge to Trump is an
uphill climb. The November jobs report showed that the U.S. economy remains strong, even as the rest of the world slows
down. Not only were an astounding 266,000 net jobs added to the economy last month — far above expectations —
but the previous two months were revised upward as well for a combined gain of an additional 35,000 jobs. Unemployment, already at a
level below what economists once thought to be full employment, ticked downward again to 3.5%. And for Democrats, this is a disaster.
a Strong Job Market Has Proved the Experts Wrong. There are a lot of good things to say, and few bad things to
say, about the November employment numbers that were published Friday morning [12/6/2019]. Employers added 266,000
jobs, a blockbuster number even after accounting for the one-time boost of about 41,000 striking General Motors workers who
returned to the job. Revisions to previous months' job counts were positive. The unemployment rate fell to
3.5 percent, matching its lowest level since 1969.
Created 266,000 Jobs in November. The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs for the month and the unemployment rate
fell to 3.5 percent, matching the lowest level in 50 years. Economists had expected the economy to add 180,000 jobs
and for unemployment to remain unchanged at 3.6 percent, according to Econoday. Adding to the picture of strength for the
labor market, previous jobs numbers were revised up. September's figure was revised up by 13,000 to 193,000. October
was revised up by 28,000 to 156,000. Together, that adds 41,000 more jobs than previously reported.
are running into Trump's economic buzzsaw. For the past couple of years, the potential for an economic downturn
has kept jittery Democrats from getting too nervous about the 2020 presidential election. Even if Robert Mueller and
his Russia investigation didn't get President Trump — and now the Ukraine impeachment investigation —
then the American economy surely would. There was no way four years of Trump's trade wars and general incompetence
wouldn't result in a nasty recession and a one-term Trump presidency, right? Now it's looking more and more like the
back-up plan might need a back-up plan. Wall Street economists and forecasting models don't see more than a
one-in-three chance of an economic downturn next year. There's even a reasonable scenario of an economic upturn.
adds better-than-expected 128,000 jobs in October as economy holds strong. The U.S. created 128,000 new jobs in
October and hiring was stronger at the end of summer than previously reported, suggesting the economy is still holding up
better than expected despite trade turbulence and a slowdown in global growth. The increase in hiring last month easily
topped the 75,000 forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Wall Street had expected a six-week GM GM, +1.53%
strike to result in a much smaller increase in employment last month.
adds surprisingly strong 128,000 jobs in October amid GM strike. The US labor market took a hit in October from
an extended strike at General Motors but the economy kept adding jobs at a solid pace, the government reported Friday
[11/1/2019]. The steady hiring showed demand for workers remained resilient despite President Donald Trump's protracted
trade war with China, which has chilled investment and slowed the economy.
added 128K jobs in October, beating estimates. The U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October and the
unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%, according to new data released Friday [11/1/2019], overcoming the drag from a monthlong
General Motors strike that ended last week. The monthly employment report from the Labor Department far exceeded
expectations from forecasters, who predicted 75,000 jobs would be created in October, a sharp dip from 136,000 in September.
Unemployment was expected to increase slightly to 3.6% from 3.5% last month when the country saw a 50-year low.
It's The Economy, Stupid.
A little more than three years ago, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicted that a Trump presidency would
cause the economy to spiral into a recession. This week, Zandi is predicting that the strong economy could all but
assure a Trump reelection. No wonder Democrats avoid the topic like the plague. "It's pretty clear that everyone
would end up in a pretty bad place," is how Zandi described life under President Donald Trump in June 2016. That was assuming
Congress enacted Trump's agenda, which Zandi said was highly unlikely. Zandi wasn't alone, of course. He is,
in fact, the epitome of conventional economists.
Economy: 1.6 Million More Jobs Than The 'Experts' Predicted. The economy created 136,000 jobs in September,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of businesses. The separate household survey, which is used to track
unemployment, showed that the number of unemployed dropped by 275,000. Not only did the job market pull 275,000 off the
unemployment line last month, it pulled more than 100,000 who had dropped out of the labor force back into the job market.
This is good news, but it continues to confound mainstream economists, who solemnly predicted at the start of Trump's
administration that we faced a "secular stagnation." Any talk of strong economic growth was a fantasy. When the economy
started to outperform expectations, liberals shrugged it off by claiming that the upturn in growth was all baked in the cake
when President Obama was president. That is false.
Too Much Good MAGAnomic Data, Bloomberg Cancels the Recession. Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor
Department's report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels. Also last week, the
Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007. Then came the
Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue
to expand. And if that wasn't too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was
Sentiment Rebounds More Than Expected, Dousing Recession Fears. After plunging in August, U.S. consumer
rebounded by more than expected in the first weeks in September, according to data released Friday [9/13/2019] by the
University of Michigan. Consumers felt better about both current conditions and their expectations for the future,
according to the preliminary September survey. Economists had expected the University of Michigan's gauge to bounce to
91 after the August decline to 88. On Friday, however, the reading was 92.
Retail Sales Jump Higher
as Car Sales Shift to Higher Gear and Online Purchases Climb. Americans boosted their spending on cars and
online purchases in August, supporting economic growth and pushing retail sales higher than economists had expected.
Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in August from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday.
The figures include sales at department stores, restaurants, car dealerships, gas stations, and online shops.
Sales Show "Unexpected" Growth in August -AND- Despite Tariffs, Import Prices Drop. The recession-hoping
pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations. The Commerce
Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had
predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year. These excellent
results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.
Private Sector Payroll Results Exceed Expectations. ADP Payroll analysis for August reflects continued strong
gains in the jobs market beating all expectations from the financial pundits. The official government stats will be
released tomorrow (private and public sector); in the interim the ADP payroll of private sector job creation shows that Main
Street continues to be very strong.
US job growth stumbles in
August with 130,000 added. U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in August, missing Wall Street's expectations, as
trade uncertainty and slowing global growth darkened the economic outlook. The unemployment rate remained steady at
3.7 percent, near a 50-year low, while the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.2 percent. Average
hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose 3.2 percent over the past year to $28.11. That was slightly higher than projections
of 3.1 percent.
The Only Reason For Recession?
The Prospect Of Trump Ever Leaving Office. If wishing for a recession could make it so, then the economy would
be headed over a steep cliff. The hate-Trump left's drumbeat for a hoped-for R word has been growing louder and more
persistent with every passing day. They point to polls of economists predicting a 2020 recession and never mind that
this is the same crowd of academics who told us that Trump election would cause a "global economic calamity." These are
the people who said the economy was overdue for a recession three years ago. These are the very same prophets who said
the Trump tax cut wouldn't work to create jobs and higher wages. These were the academic whiz kids who said the economy
couldn't grow faster than 2 percent ("the new normal") and who said that manufacturing and mining jobs weren't coming back.
Consumer Confidence Index Beats Expectations. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to
talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic
highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about
current and future expectations.
Spending Beats Expectations. If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the
financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results. July spending more than doubled
expectations. July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent. Consumer
spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy. Doesn't exactly sound like Main Street is
on the precipice of a recession.
payrolls add 164,000 new workers in July. U.S. employers hired 164,000 workers in July, bolstering an erratic
labor market whose growth remains significantly slower than in 2018.
The Editor says...
Slower growth is still growth.
Jobless Claims Plunge to 209,000. The number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits
unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market has continued to strengthen following a brief stumble in May.
Initial claims dropped by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended July 6, the Labor Department said
on Thursday [7/11/2019]. Economists had expected claims to rise to 223,000.
growth, and higher wages leave Democratic contenders searching for excuses. Friday's [7/5/2019] June jobs
report, with its expectations-shattering gain of 224,000 net jobs (including 17,000 manufacturing jobs) and its 4%
unemployment rate (effectively full employment), reinforces what was already popularly understood about the Trump-era
economy. Unemployment is historically low. Job creation is historically strong. Wages continue rising under
Trump after a long period of stagnation under predecessors of both parties.
weird things the left is doing in response to the mighty Trump economy. The economy is roaring as today's
non-farm payrolls report shows. June job gains showed a greater-than-expected 224,000 gain. The unemployment rate
"nudged" higher to 3.7%, solely because 335,000 discouraged workers are finally reentering the workforce. [...] It follows on
from Wednesday's news that U.S. stocks hit an all-time high, with the DJIA ending at just under 27,000. Nasdaq and S&P hit
all-time highs, too. And don't forget the record low black, Latino, female, handicapped, and even ex-con unemployment
rates. We've never seen anything like this before.
America Created 224,000 Jobs in June! Job creation reignited in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising 224,000 and
unemployment ticking up to 3.7 percent. The June number will be closely watched after a surprisingly poor showing
in May, when the U.S. economy was initially reported to have added just 75,000 jobs.
157,005,000 Employed; 19th Record of Trump Era. After the Fourth of July fireworks, the fifth of July brings
another reason for Americans to celebrate. A record 157,005,000 people were employed in June, the most since February
and the 19th record of Trump's presidency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday [7/5/2019]. And the
economy added a strong 224,000 jobs in June, well above the estimate of 160,000. The unemployment rate, the lowest in
50 years, ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.7 percent.
Strong job growth is back:
Payrolls jump in June well above expectations. Payroll growth rebounded sharply in June as the U.S. economy
added 224,000 jobs amid concerns that both the employment picture and overall growth picture were beginning to weaken.
The unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% as labor force participation rose, according to the Labor Department. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 165,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%.
Street Wrong Again — Import Prices Decline During Full Year of Import Tariffs. The latest set of
statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on
imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality. In actuality the year-over-year prices of
import products are actually dropping.
Job Growth Exceeds Estimates: 275,000 New Jobs Created in April. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected just
177,000 new jobs to have been created by the U.S. economy in April, once again applying rear-view-mirror thinking to their
forecasts. Instead, not only did the economy generate 275,000 new jobs (according to payroll giant ADP with some help
from Moody's), but the gains were across every sector and size of business.
predicted economic Armageddon under Trump — where are they now? The economy is strong, unemployment
is low and wages are rising, according to the latest economic data released Friday, which is in stark contrast to what the
vast majority of elite economic opinion predicted just a few years ago from a Trump presidency. The latest unemployment
report has joblessness at 3.6 percent. Where is the Trump Armageddon Squad now?
New Jobs: The Trump Economy Continues To Defy the 'Experts'. Even before President Trump took office,
then Fed chair Janet Yellen was warning that the economy was dangerously close to "maximum employment." Strong job growth
going forward, she said in early January, could spark inflation. In May of that year — almost exactly two
years ago today, in fact — the media's favorite economist, Mark Zandi at Moody's, declared that: "With the
economy at full employment and seeming destined to blow past it, the current expansion is likely entering its later
stages. An overheating economy, where tight labor markets result in significant wage and price pressures, has been a
necessary condition for all past recessions." Oops. The economy created about 5 million new jobs after Zandi
made that statement. The expansion gained strength. And inflation is nowhere to be seen.
Drops To 3.6%, Payrolls Up 263,000, Showing Economy Remains Strong. U.S. employers added a better-than-expected
263,000 jobs in April, as the nearly decade-old economic expansion shows no signs of slowing. And the unemployment rate
dropped to 3.6% — the lowest in nearly 50 years. In March, the jobless rate was 3.8%. A monthly
snapshot from the Labor Department showed solid hiring in services, construction and health care.
US job growth surges in April,
beating expectations with 263,000 added. The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in
April, soaring past Wall Street's expectations for an increase of 185,000 jobs, while unemployment fell to the lowest rate
since 1969. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent, beating analysts' expectations of 3.8 percent.
The labor force participation rate, meanwhile, was little changed at 62.8 percent, from 63 percent the month
prior. Average hourly earnings — which investors were closely watching for signs of inflation —
rose by 6 cents to $27.77. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by about 3.2 percent, slightly
missing expectations of 3.3 percent.
Unemployment hits 49-year low as
US employers step up hiring. Hiring accelerated and pay rose at a solid pace in April, setting the stage for
healthy U.S. economic growth to endure despite fears of a slowdown earlier this year.
payrolls surge by 275,000 in April, blowing past estimates in biggest gain since July. Private payrolls grew by
275,000 last month, the biggest increase since July, when they expanded by 284,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected
private payrolls growth of 177,000. Services-providing jobs increased by 223,000 in April, led by a gain of 59,000 positions
in professional and business services. Education and health services companies added 54,000 jobs while employment within
the leisure and hospitality industry expanded by 53,000.
Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama. The U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning [4/26/2019], showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000,
stronger than analysts expected. The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook
the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain. With the December jobs number,
President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.
growth rebounds at 3.2 percent pace in first quarter. The U.S. economy grew more quickly than most economists
expected during the first quarter of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. During the
three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts' expectations
of 2.5 percent. [...] Stocks rose on the better-than-expected results in pre-market trading.
U.S. economy hit
the gas in the first quarter. The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter,
sprinting past analysts' growth forecasts of 2.3 percent.
economy grew at 3.2 percent in first quarter, exceeding expectations. Economic growth in the U.S. blew past
expectations in the first quarter of 2019, easing fears of an impending slowdown that kicked off the year [...] Economists
had expected U.S. GDP to grow roughly 2.5 percent between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019, typically one of the weaker
periods for the American economy.
Created 196,000 Jobs in March, Beating Expectations for 170,000. The American economy added 196,000 jobs in
March. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent, the government said Friday [4/5/2019]. Economists had
expected 170,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.
Experts Who Are Always Wrong Really "Experts" At All? Why are all the "experts" always so [very] shocked by the
jobs reports? So, the U.S. economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, shocking all the eminent high muckety-muck
economists, who predicted from their high towers that the number would be more like 180,000. Of course, it wasn't just
these mysterious "expert" economists who were flummoxed by the wonderful report — the fake news media that has
been doing its best to tank the U.S. economy since January 20, 2017 was also in a state of shock about it all.
Here's a sampling of the headlines this morning: [...] The hilarious thing about this is that all these same "experts" were
also shocked at every jobs report during the Obama years, but they were invariably shocked because the actual numbers were so
low when compared to their pie-in-the-sky expectations.
U.S. Job Growth Surged in December
With 312,000 Payrolls Added. U.S. employers added the most workers in 10 months as wage gains accelerated and
labor-force participation jumped, reflecting a robust job market that nevertheless faces mounting risks in 2019. Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 312,000 in December, easily topping all forecasts, after an upwardly revised 176,000 gain the prior month,
a Labor Department report showed Friday [1/4/2019]. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% from a year earlier, more than
projected and matching the fastest pace since 2009. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose from a five-decade low to 3.9%,
reflecting more people actively seeking work.
Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama. The U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning, showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than
analysts expected. The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock
market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain. With the December jobs number, President Trump
now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.
in December, employers added 312,000 jobs. US employers added 312,000 jobs in December, well above what
economists expected and underlining that the American economy remains strong despite recent market turbulence. The
unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as more people were looking for work. It had been at a 50-year low of 3.7% for two of
the last three months. Employers added 2.6 million jobs in 2018, compared to 2.2 million in 2017.
Revisions to the October and November estimates added an additional 58,000 jobs to the 2018 total.
The Editor says...
Notice the quietly revised numbers from previous months.
Jobs Report Smashed Expectations With 312,000 Jobs. Economists predicted we'd only see around 176,000 new jobs
in December 2018, but the jobs report showed employers added 312,000 jobs instead. 2018 also went out with a bang by
averaging 220,000 new jobs every month, which is the best average since 2015. Unemployment rate went from 3.7% to 3.9%,
but that's because labor force participation increased to 63.1%.
Report Blows Away All Expectations! The jobs numbers released Friday [1/4/2019] exceeded expectations of
economists and are through the roof! The economy is soaring despite the Democrats efforts to damage it. How will
they spin this? U.S. jobs increased by 312,000, far better than the predicted 176,000 jobs. That's nearly double
the amount expected! Wages also grew 3.2% year-over-year vs. an estimated 3%.
Too high or too low. Why are the expectations always wrong?
growth falls short of expectations in November: 155,000 payrolls created vs 198,000 estimate. Job growth slowed
in November amid fears that economic growth is losing steam. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 for the month while
the unemployment rate again held at 3.7 percent, its lowest since 1969, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of 198,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady.
Average hourly earnings, a closely watched sign of whether inflation pressures are building, again rose at a 3.1 percent pace
from a year ago. The monthly earnings gain of 0.2 percent fell short of estimates for a 0.3 percent increase.
The average work week edged lower by 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.
The US economy
added better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October. The US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, significantly
exceeding expectations, the government announced Friday [11/2/2018]. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, a 49-year
low. Hispanic unemployment reached its lowest rate ever, at 4.4%. Wages grew 3.1%, relatively robust growth after
years of stagnant paychecks.
up 3.1 per cent, 250,000 new jobs and 50-year low unemployment. U.S. employers added a stellar 250,000 jobs
last month and raised average pay by the most in nearly a decade — in a dose of good news for President Trump as
he barnstorms the country to try to preserve unified Republican control of national power. The Labor Department's
monthly jobs report, the last major economic data before Tuesday's congressional elections, also showed that the unemployment
rate remained at a five-decade low of 3.7 percent. On a key metric that affects voters, average hourly earnings also
increased. They rose by 0.2 percent from September, an annualized gain of 3.1 percent. And unemployment
remained at a 48 year low.
Economy Created 250,000 Jobs in October, Wages Rise More Than 3% for First Time Since Recession. The U.S.
economy added 250,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, according to Labor Department
figures released Friday [11/2/2018]. Economists had predicted the economy would add 190,000 jobs and the unemployment
rate would to hold steady at 3.7 percent, the lowest level of joblessness in 49-years. Friday's data shows that
hiring bounced back after an unusually weak September when employers added just 118,000 jobs — the smallest monthly
increase in a year. Over the past 12 months, employers added an average of 211,000 jobs each month.
September Payrolls Grew by 230,000 in September. Hold on to your MAGA caps there's a winner wonderland
ahead. According to the latest ADP private payroll release today [10/3/2018], private sector payrolls grew by a
stunning 230,000 jobs in September. [They were anticipating 185k] Massive jobs gains amid small, medium and large sized
companies. This comes on the heels of the latest stats on paychecks which show *average* wage gains around 2.6%
over last year. Key word "average". There are multiple job sectors with wage increases of four to seven
percent; well above the rate of consumer price inflation.
advances by 4.2% in 2Q. America's economy extended its strong momentum in the second quarter, with gross
domestic product (GDP) increasing at a 4.2 percent rate, according to the final revision. The prior, first
revision pegged second-quarter GDP at a 4.2 percent annual rate, above the originally reported 4.1 percent.
No Attention To That 'Unexpected' Good Economic News Over There. The past week saw more signs that the growing
economy is benefiting middle class households, including another jump in household income. Not that you'd know it from
the coverage, which is wall-to-wall Brett Kavanaugh.
hits 138.4 in September, vs. 132 estimate. Consumer confidence rose in September, notching its highest level in
about 18 years. The Conference Board's index rose to 138.4 this month from 134.7 in August. Economists polled by
Reuters expected consumer confidence to dip to 132. "Consumers' assessment of current conditions remains extremely
favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth," said said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at
the Conference Board. "These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending,
and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season." Franco added September's
index print is near the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.
Is Beating The Last Administration's Low Expectations. Americans are now seeing more jobs, higher wages, and
greater investment. The president of the New York Fed remarked that the economy was neither growing too quickly nor too
slowly, describing it as a "Goldilocks economy." Business optimism has been surging since the last election and the latest
National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) survey of small business optimism hit a record high.
Pelosi Trashes Jobs Report Analysts Call 'Greatest of All Time'. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who
would likely become Speaker of the House if Democrats win the midterm elections in November, trashed Friday's [9/7/2018] jobs
report — even though Blackrock called it "the greatest of all time." The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
that the U.S. economy created 201,000 new jobs in August — more than the 190,000 expected — and unemployment
stayed at 3.9%. Moreover, wages grew 2.9% year-on-year.
payrolls top growth projections with 201,000 new jobs in August. The economy gained a better-than-expected
201,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
Friday [9/7/2018]. Economists had predicted 189,000 new jobs, and the report should further solidify the Federal Reserve's
plans to raise interest rates amid what officials previously labeled a "strong" U.S. economy. Experts say job growth should
continue into the second half of 2018, fueled partly by last year's tax cuts.
Wage Gains Pick Up to 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000. American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the
most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift
interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.
than Expected Job Growth and Wage Gains in August Signal Economic Strength. The American economy added 201,000
jobs in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent. Economists had forecast 191,100 new jobs and the
unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent. Average hourly earnings increased 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized
basis, according to a Department of Labor report released Friday. That also beat expectations for 2.7 percent wage
growth. In dollar terms, average hourly earnings increased 10 cents from the previous month to $27.16. Private
sector payrolls rose by 204,000. Mining added 6,000 new jobs. Construction added 23,000, bringing its total to over
300,000 for the year.
Claims Unexpectedly Plunge to New Post-1969 Record. Jobless claims fell last week even further to a new
post-1969 record of 203,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims for state unemployment benefits since December
6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The 4-week moving average, considered a better gauge of the labor market because it smooths
out week-to-week volatility, fell to 209,500 from 212,250. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6,
1969 when it was 204,500.
There's That Word Again.
Remember during the dark days of the Obungler administration when the Fake News Media always had "unexpected" news about the
economy? Every summer was "recovery summer" but the bad economic news was always "unexpected". I mean we had the "light
bringer", the "almost a god", the Obamessiah in the White House. What could go wrong? I had a friend back in St. Louis
who voted for Obumbler in 2012 because he "saved us from a depression". I was shocked when he told me that. He obviously got
his news from the Fake News Media. I don't believe the myth about the Oblunder recovery. I maintain that we were in a
recession during most of Obongo's term of office. We were certainly in a jobs recession. [...] Remember, the labor participation
during the those disastrous 8 years was very very low. Under Trump the U6 has been consistently falling and now stands at
7.5%. Yep! We are finally in a recovery. And retail sales are up. Of course, this was "unexpected".
Think U.S. Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low. Economists expect the low U.S. unemployment rate to go even
lower over the next year, reaching levels not seen in a half-century. Private-sector economic forecasters surveyed in
recent days by The Wall Street Journal on average saw the jobless rate — 4% in June after touching 3.8% in
May — falling to 3.7% by the end of 2018 and 3.6% by mid-2019.
Nancy Pelosi freaks
out over strong jobs report. The Labor Department announced Friday that June's job report beat expectations.
The U.S. economy added 231,000 new jobs, and over 600,000 new workers entered the workforce as optimism about our nation's
future grows. That's great news to everyone, except House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
claims rise to 231,000, but are still running at historic lows. New claims for unemployment insurance benefits
rose 3,000 to 231,000 to end June, the Department of Labor reported Thursday [7/5/2018], but the report contained good news
overall. The small increase in jobless claims defied forecasters' expectations for claims to drop by 4,000 to 223,000.
Payrolls rise better than expected 213,000 but
unemployment rate back at 4%. The employment part of the economy continued to power forward in June, adding another 213,000
jobs though the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent, according to a government report Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had
expected a nonfarm payrolls gain of 195,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.8 percent, which had been tied for the lowest since 1969.
report could signal a 'stampede' back into the workforce. The better-than-expected June jobs report, which saw
the addition of 213,000 new positions to the U.S. economy and an increased labor force participation rate, is evidence of an
economy that's returning to work, according to the Council of Economic Advisers chairman. "What we want to do is
reconnect people who were discouraged by the bad economy that President Trump inherited, and we want to bring them back into
society and get them back to work," Kevin Hassett said during a FOX Business interview with Charles Payne on Friday.
"It's clear that this is the real message of work, almost the stampede back into the labor department."
Pelosi Trashes June Jobs Report, Warns of 'Brewing Storm' of Wealth and Opportunity. Former Speaker of the
House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) trashed the June jobs report — even though it showed rapid job growth, rising wages, and
low unemployment. The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that employers created 213,000 new jobs in
June — 22,000 more than economists had expected. Manufacturing jobs in particular rose by 36,000. The
unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.8% to 4.0% — but that was partly because so many people are entering (or
re-entering) the labor force.
jobs growth jumps with 213K jobs added while unemployment rises. The U.S. economy added a higher-than-expected
number of jobs in June, with 213,000 positions created versus analysts' expectations for 195,000. The unemployment rate moved
higher, off an 18-year low, to 4% from May's 3.8%. Economists say the slight move higher is a positive as it reflects more workers
entering the workforce after sitting on the sidelines, drawn by the plethora of jobs. In June, 601,000 Americans entered the
labor force, and not all found jobs.
The Editor says...
This is because so many people abandoned the prospect of finding a job while Obama was president, and the workforce participation
rate dropped like a stone. Now that some of those workers are re-entering the job market, it's inevitable that some won't be
able to find a job immediately.
weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May as consumers
bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods even as they paid more for gasoline, the latest indication of an
acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.
Weekly Jobless Claims Fall
Unexpectedly. Weekly jobless claims continue to fall as the labor market flourishes. Last week's fall was
unexpected as 1,000 fewer Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits than the week before even though economists had
predicted an increase.
Adds 223,000 Jobs In May. The U.S. added 223,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent,
according to Labor Department figures published on Friday [6/1/2018]. Economists forecasted 190,000 additional nonfarm
payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9 percent. Manufacturing performed strongly, adding 18,000
jobs. Construction grew by 25,000 new positions. The Mining sector expanded by 6,000. Service providers added
171,000 jobs, with an increase in retail of 31,100.
report surprises to the upside. The U.S. added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in May — with
the Labor Department reporting that 223,000 jobs were added, more than the 188,000 jobs analysts polled by Thomson Reuters
were expecting. Job creation was also above the average 190,000 jobs created each month after the past year. The
unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from April's 3.9%. The unemployment rate is now at an 18-year low.
was best month in history for U.S. budget, according to CBO figures. The federal government took in a record
tax haul in April en route to its biggest-ever monthly budget surplus, the Congressional Budget Office said, as a surging
economy left Americans with more money in their paychecks — and this more to pay to Uncle Sam. All told the
government collected $515 billion and spent $297 billion, for a total monthly surplus of $218 billion.
That swamped the previous monthly record of $190 billion, set in 2001. CBO analysts were surprised by the surplus,
which was some $40 billion more than they'd guessed at less than a month ago.
Falls to Lowest Rate Since 2000 Despite Smaller than Expected Jobs Gains in April. The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs
in April and unemployment ticked down to 3.9 percent, the lowest since before the bursting of the tech bubble at the end of the
last century. Economists had forecast nonfarm payrolls to grow by 192,000 and unemployment to tick down from 4.1 percent to
4.0 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. The unemployment rate had been stuck at 4.1 percent for sixth months.
Nonfarm payrolls increase
by 103,000 in March, vs 193,000 jobs expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in March while the unemployment
rate was 4.1 percent, falling well short of Wall Street expectations during a month where weather caused havoc on the jobs
market, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists had been expecting a payrolls gain of 193,000
and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent. The monthly reading was a huge slip from the
326,000 reported in February.
The Editor says...
Wait a couple of weeks for the "revised" numbers to come out.
economy adds 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations. In February, nonfarm payrolls grew by 313,000 and
the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last three months, job
gains have now averaged 242,000 per month. February's payrolls gain was the largest since July 2016. February
marks the fifth-straight month the unemployment rate has been at 4.1%, which is the lowest level since December 2000.
Economists had expected the report to show nonfarm payrolls grew by 205,000 during the second month of the year with the
unemployment rate falling to 4%.
jumps 441 points, Nasdaq hits record as February job growth blows past estimates. Stocks posted sharp gains
Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a record high, as investors reacted to stronger February job growth than expected.
Non-farm payrolls increase
by 313,000 in February vs. 200,000 est. The economy added 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations,
while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent, according to a Labor Department report Friday [3/9/2018] that could
help quell inflation fears. Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting nonfarm payroll growth of 200,000 and the
unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent. An increase in the labor force participation rate to its
highest level since September helped keep the headline unemployment number steady, as the number of those counted as not in the
workforce tumbled by 653,000 to just over 95 million.
jobs grow by 235,000 in February, vs 195,000 expected: ADP/Moody's Analytics. Job creation saw another
powerful month in February, with companies adding 235,000 positions, ADP and Moody's Analytics reported Wednesday [2/7/2018].
The total again defied Wall Street expectations, as economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting payrolls to grow by
195,000. Growth actually decelerated slightly, as January posted an upwardly revised 244,000 from the initially reported
Adds 200,000 Jobs in January, Beating Expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 2oo,000 in January while the
unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [2/2/2018]. Economists had
expected nonfarm payrolls to grow by 180,000.
Fed Sees GDP Rocketing to 5.4% in First Quarter. The American economy is on track to grow at a 5.4 percent
annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Monday [1/29/2018].
The regional Fed's forecast rose from last week's 4.2 percent growth following a report on manufacturing that showed more expansion
than expected. The forecast of real consumer spending growth rose from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent, while the forecast of
investment growth soared from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.
Anyone Noticed That Trump's Economy Keeps Beating Expectations? The number of people filing for unemployment
benefits last week came in "unexpectedly" low. Instead of 240,000 claims, there were 236,000, which marked the third
week in a row this number has dropped. That's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. It's just one
measure, after all, and the differences aren't huge. Except it adds to a pile of "unexpectedly" good economic reports
that have been coming out these days.
Business Optimism Beats Forecast, Hiring Strongest Since 1999. The National Federation of Independent Business
(NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rose to 105.2, fueled by significant gains in hiring. The headline number beat the
103.2 consensus forecast. A seasonally adjusted net 19% said they plan to create new jobs, a gain of 4 points to the
highest level since December 1999. Among the 10 components making up the Small Business Optimism Index, 7 improved, 2
declined and 1 was unchanged.
Now let's look at the unexpectedly bad news under Obama:
Related topic: Obama's Destruction of America's Economy.
Rises To 5 Percent In September; 94,184,000 Out of Labor Force. The national unemployment rate in September
rose to five percent, as the United States economy added only about 156,000 jobs, according to statistics released by the Labor
Department on Friday [10/7/2016]. That number is lower than analyst expectations, who predicted a 175,000 boost in jobs.
growth in May worst in 5 years. The unemployment report for May is an absolute disaster. "Unexpectedly,"
after economists predicted that 164,000 new jobs would be created, only 38,000 nrew jobs were counted. While the
"official" unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the reason for the drop was familiar: more people became discouraged about
looking for work and dropped out of the labor force entirely. In fact, that broader measure of joblessness was more
than twice the "official" rate: 9.7%.
House says May jobless report is 'disappointing'. The White House acknowledged Friday [6/3/2016] that the economy grew at
a "disappointingly low" rate in May, blaming a strike by Verizon workers in part for the sluggish performance. Jason Furman, the
top economic adviser to President Obama, said the telecommunications strike and "volatility in monthly data" contributed to job growth
that was "considerably below" expectations. Employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, the lowest gain in five years.
Retail Sales Fell Unexpectedly In March As Americans Cut Back On Buying Cars. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly
fell in March as households cut back on purchases of automobiles, further evidence that economic growth stumbled in the first
quarter. The Commerce Department said Wednesday [4/13/2016] that retail sales declined 0.3 percent last month after
being unchanged in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1 percent last
month. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services ticked up 0.1 percent last
month after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February.
Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits
dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department
said on Thursday [4/2/2015].
Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Four-Month High. More Americans unexpectedly
filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating companies let go of seasonal
workers following the holidays. Jobless claims climbed by 19,000 to 316,000 in the week ended
Jan. 10, the most since early September, from a revised 297,000 in the prior period, a Labor
Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg called for 290,000.
Obama! 1st Quarter GDP Was Actually a Disastrous -2.9%. So basically it was three
times as bad as first reported, but let's all pretend things will improve in the second quarter.
This is all so unexpected.
economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1. The first-quarter contraction
reported Wednesday [6/25/2014] by the Commerce Department was even more severe than the
1 percent annual decline it had estimated a month ago.
Yellen surprised by jobs
report. In January, the US added just 113,000 new jobs, up from an even more disappointing 75,000 in December. Both
figures were well below economists' forecasts. Last year, the economy added an average of 194,000 jobs per month. "I was
surprised that the jobs reports in December and January, the pace of job creation, was running under what I had anticipated. But
we have to be very careful not to jump to conclusions in interpreting what those reports mean," she said.
Jobs: The Report, the Spin, and the Fear. The
monthly employment numbers are out and even the New York Times is dismayed. The economy added 113,000 jobs in January, which was (all
together now) unexpectedly short of the 180,000 economists were predicting.
Jobless claims rise more than
expected. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department
said on Thursday [1/30/2014]. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.
Unexpectedly! 4th quarter GDP cratered after Obama
reelected. C'mon now, what did anyone really expect when they re-elected the guy whose ecomomic policy is
"destroy America." The Food Stamp president and his magic unicorns still haven't fixed our economy. In fact, it's gone into a
nosedive. And it doesn't look like he's in any kind of hurry to change course either.
Dem leader Reid: 'We are in a recovery'.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Thursday said the American economy is "in a recovery" despite the decline in the nation's gross
domestic product (GDP). Reid made the remark after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blamed the White House for the
unexpected contraction in the economy.
In the Obama years, bad news has always surprised the media.
'Unexpectedly'. Certainly, a media that wanted to paint a more dire portrait of the economy would
have no shortage of material to work with. There's considerable evidence that America's problems in job
creation are much worse than the most widely cited numbers would indicate.
In the age of unexpectedly.
It is, of course, as with all historical periods, difficult to pinpoint exactly when it began. Perhaps the earliest sign was a Reuters story
dated May 19, 2009, which reported that "new U.S. housing starts and permits unexpectedly fell to record lows in April ... denting hopes that
stability in the housing market was imminent."
Great Expectations, Disappointing
Results. The media breathlessly report an "unexpectedly" large increase in unemployment applications
with inflation rising "faster than expected." Given the wasteful spending spree we've been on, what do
What Do You Expect with
Obama? It's funny how the media almost always use the word "unexpectedly" whenever they report
this country's state of affairs under the Obama administration.
Double Standard Disease [is] an affliction that causes the media to ignore, rationalize or trivialize in
order to defend, support and advance the tax-the-rich, spread-the-wealth, expand-the-government agenda of President Obama
and his party. ... [For example,] When the economy recovered under President George W. Bush, the major news media
pronounced it a "jobless recovery." Now, despite unemployment stalled at 9.7 percent for several months, the
same media call it a "surprising" or "unexpected" recovery.
These days, it's best to expect
the 'unexpected'. The national economy is in the tank — unexpectedly. At least
it's "unexpected" by the mainstream media, and professional economists. After all these months, these
pampered pukes remain flummoxed by how clueless their hero Barack Obama has shown himself to be on economic
(and other) issues.
The cost of
progressivist worship. Why is it that one government report after another "unexpectedly" bears
more bad news about jobs? Last week, according to Bloomberg, "The number of unemployment claims unexpectedly
shot up." Before that, Reuters reported, "Employers unexpectedly cut jobs." This "unexpectedly" bit
has been going on for quite a while, suggesting that journalists continue to be surprised that President Obama's
progressive agenda has failed to revive private-sector job creation. One might as well say, "Monday
unexpectedly will come next week."
Consumer Sentiment Index Unexpectedly Declines. Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly
dropped to a one-year low in September, indicating the biggest part of the economy is being handcuffed by
a struggling labor market.
Daffy Ducks. "In
a surprising setback, the nation's unemployment rate climbed to 9.8 percent in November, a seven-month high, as hiring
slowed across the economy," the Associated Press reports. Another surprising setback!
Jobs Don't Matter To the EPA.
The EPA doesn't look at the impact on jobs at all when they issue regulations. They don't
consider jobs to be part of a "detailed economic analysis." That goes a long way toward explaining why
President Obama keeps talking about his "economic recovery" when every week seems to bring fresh "unexpected"
news about the shrinking U.S. workforce.
media always shocked by bad economic news. Unexpectedly! As megablogger Glenn Reynolds,
aka Instapundit, has noted with amusement, the word "unexpectedly" or variants thereon keep cropping up in
mainstream media stories about the economy.
Here's an example:
Jobs Data is
'Last Nail in the Coffin' of Economic Recovery. April's gain was revised downward to 232,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 9.1 percent in May from 9 percent a month earlier.
Clearly the labor market is in a precarious state.
tunes out, and business goes on hiring strike. Last week I noted that various forms of the word
"unexpected" almost inevitably appeared in news stories about unfavorable economic developments. You can
find them again in stories about Friday's shocking news, that only 54,000 net new jobs were created in the
month of May and that unemployment rose to 9.1 percent. But with news that bad, maybe bad
economic numbers will no longer be "unexpected."
headline: 'New Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise'. When will bad economic news be "expected?"
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid unexpectedly edged higher last week, stoking
fears of a stalled economic recovery even as a separate report showed record U.S. exports in April.
"Unexpectedly bad" ends up being "much worse".
There's little doubt that journalists are getting a bit touchy about using "the U-word," especially since,
far more often than not during the past several years, it has meant "unexpectedly bad." On Tuesday, in
the wake of yet another downward slide in consumer confidence after "experts" had predicted improvement, both
Bloomberg and the Associated Press let the U-word slip into their initial reports but purged it in later
Payrolls Grow at Slowest Pace in 9 Months. American employers added jobs at the slowest pace in
nine months in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent, sending global
stocks sliding on concern the world's biggest economy is faltering.
Liberalism: Out of a Job.
Robert Samuelson at the Washington Post provides details of the jobs report. First of all, few expected
the numbers to be this bad. The job numbers "unexpectedly" fell. The analysts expected a net
gain of 140,000 jobs. The actual was 18,000 — far below the number needed to keep pace
with new entrants. That was shocking in an of itself.
Completely Expectable 'Unexpectedness'.
Last Friday [7/8/2011], Americans revisited two of the most depressingly recurring themes they have been forced
to endure for almost three years. First, $3 trillion of debt-bloating, economy-killing, spread-the-poverty
around Keynesian economics once again proved itself to be a colossal failure. Second, economists who use
the word "unexpected" to describe that which is painfully obvious to everyone else have once again proven they
are unrelentingly clueless. The unemployment rate? "Unexpectedly" up to 9.2 percent. Job
creation? 18,000, "uber-unexpectedly" below the prediction of 90,000.
claims rise above expectations. Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region rebounded
in July, but stubbornly high new filings for jobless benefits suggested an expected pick-up in economic
growth in the second half of 2011 would be modest.
More unexpectedly bad news:
Employers Added No New Jobs In August. Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs
last month, down from 117,000 in July. The unemployment rate stayed, as expected, at
9.1 percent. The fact that no net new jobs were added in August was yet another
dose of bad news for the economy. ... Another disappointing sign was a drop in the average
workweek to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent
when economists were expecting an increase of 0.2 percent. ... A more accurate portrait of
jobless America may be 16 percent to 20 percent, according to some experts.
The Editor says...
This is ABC doubletalk at its finest. "Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs", but there were
zero new jobs, just as they expected. If that makes sense to you, keep watching ABC News.
Sales Stall on Lack of Job Growth. Retail sales in the U.S.
unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income
growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall.
Consumer Prices, Jobless Claims Exceed Forecasts. The cost of living in the U.S.
climbed more than forecast and unemployment claims rose, battering the confidence of Americans
squeezed by stagnant wages and higher prices of food, housing and energy.
Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise to Highest Level Since June. Applications
for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since the
end of June, underscoring the risk of further weakness in the labor market. Jobless
claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 that included the Labor
Day holiday, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington.
Sinking Under Obama's Policies. Hardly a day goes by without some bit of bad news the media calls
"unexpected." But investors have noticed.
Volt sales don't have expected spark. General Motors insists it will sell 10,000 Chevrolet Volts
in the U.S. by the end of this year, but as of now, the numbers don't look good.
Does 99 Weeks of Unemployment Buy? Every Thursday, the financial markets wait with bated breath
for the weekly jobless claims report. The pundits claim any number below 400,000 is reason for optimism. ... In
addition to the magical Thursday number are the always expected words "revised from an initial estimate."
Somehow, the BLS always understates the initial number and then always revises it upward. Is it even
statistically possible to have that happen week after week after week?
Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise in Holiday-Shortened Week. More Americans than forecast filed
applications for unemployment benefits during the holiday-shortened week, signaling limited recovery in the
labor market. Jobless claims climbed by 6,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Nov. 26 that included
the Thanksgiving holiday, Labor Department figures showed today [12/1/2011] in Washington.
1 Million Workers Vanished Under Obama. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 24,000
last week to 399,000 as more workers lost their jobs, the Labor Department said Thursday [1/12/2012]. At the
same time, the economy continues to lose workers. In the 30 months since the recession officially
ended, nearly 1 million people have dropped out of the labor force — they aren't working, and
they aren't looking — according to data from Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the past
two months, the labor force shrank by 170,000.
laying off 1300 due to low Volt sales. General Motors Co. announced the temporary suspension of
Chevrolet Volt production and the layoffs of 1300 employees, as the company is cutting Volt manufacturing
to meet lower-than-expected demand for the electric cars.
US Adds 120,000 Jobs; Unemployment Falls to 8.2%. Employers added
120,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the smallest increase since October. Economists polled by
Reuters had expected nonfarm employment to increase 203,000 and the unemployment rate [cnbc explains] to hold at 8.3 percent.
Than Projected Filed Jobless Claims Last Week. More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week and consumer confidence declined by the most in a year, signaling that a cooling labor market may restrain household spending.
Jobless claims fell to 388,000 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures
showed today [4/26/2012] in Washington. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 35.8 from minus 31.4 the
in U.S. Expands at 2.2% Annual Rate, Less Than Forecast. The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the first
quarter as a smaller contribution from inventories overshadowed the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than a year.
Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate,
Commerce Department figures showed today [4/27/2012] in Washington.
Sitting Out Obama.
We recently saw lots of sit-down strikes and demonstrations — the various efforts in Wisconsin, the Occupy movements, and
student efforts to oppose tuition hikes. None of them mattered much or changed anything. There is a sit-down strike,
however, that has paralyzed the country and has been largely ignored by the media. Most economists since 2009 have been
completely wrong in their forecasts, reminding us that their supposedly data-driven discipline is more an art than a science.
Private Sector Adds Just 119,000 Jobs in April: ADP. Private-sector
employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP that puts a dent into the notion that the jobs market
is on the path to a solid recovery. The report was well below forecasts of 170,000 and comes after a string of stronger
Job news bad for Obama. A
25 percent drop in the number of jobs added nationwide from March to April could spell trouble for President Barack
Obama's re-election hopes as the economy now struggles to recover at a slower-than-expected pace, local experts said
Obama's weakly job numbers.
The Labor Department reported Thursday [4/26/2012] that initial unemployment claims for the previous week had fallen by 1,000. This was
the sixth reported decline in the last eight weeks. The overall impression is that the situation is improving, slowly but
surely. Over that same period, however, the actual number of new jobless per week has increased by almost 40,000. The
Obama administration is managing perceptions by revising the weekly numbers upward after the fact. Every week for at least
the last eight weeks, the initial jobless number has been raised after it was released, sometimes significantly. So while
the combined initial figures over that period show a 13,000 new jobless decline, this is only because 49,000 jobless were not
included in the initial reports.
The Obama Jobs Disaster Worsens.
April's payroll job creation news was even worse than expected, as hiring slowed to only 115,000 jobs, well below the consensus
expectation. This marks the third consecutive year in which hiring has collapsed in the spring after showing some signs of life in
the winter. Interestingly, not all news outlets are willing to continue covering for the Obama administration.
The awful April jobs report. Any
way you slice or dice it, the April jobs report was terrible — and terribly disappointing. Employers added just 115,000 workers to their payrolls
last month, way below the 180,000 Wall Street economists were expecting.
Jobs report a
trainwreck. The U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, well below expectations of 150,000 job gains, according
to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not only did BLS report terrible numbers for May, but it made downward
revisions to previous months job growth numbers, which were already considered weak.
A No Confidence Vote For
Obamanomics. Analysts had predicted the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would climb to 70 in May.
Instead it dropped more than four points to 64.9, the biggest drop since last fall. It's the latest in another round of
disappointing numbers. Just a few weeks ago, new jobs came in "unexpectedly" low. And before that, GDP data
disappointed. Underperforming economic indicators have been so common under Obama that the only mystery is why the
experts keep getting caught off guard.
Does Anyone Still Like
Obama? In another blow to Obama's reelection bid, consumer confidence, which has been low throughout Obama's
presidency, stumbled badly last month after economists initially predicted confidence would go up.
Message from the flight
deck. [Scroll down] Well, last Friday [6/1/2012] the cockpit warning lights for our economy lit up.
The Labor Department reported that the number of jobs produced in May was a dismal 69,000 — well below predictions.
Additionally, the job creation numbers for March and April were revised significantly downward and, overall, the unemployment rate
edged up from 8.1% to 8.2%.
Jobless claims on the rise.
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits climbed last week, indicating continued trouble for the labor market.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that 386,000 people filed new jobless claims in the week ended June 9, up 6,000 from the previous
week's revised figure. That was 11,000 more than expected.
More Americans Than
Forecast File for Jobless Benefits. More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week,
indicating the labor market continues to struggle.
Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction. All 70 economists polled by Bloomberg came in on the high side.
Collapses are never expected.
June Jobs Report Unexpectedly Worse Than Lowered Expectations. The
experts who constantly guess wrong thought we'd create 90,000 jobs in June. We created 80,000. Unemployment rate holds
Next Month's Job Growth Could Be Even
Lower. The Labor Department released jobs numbers for June today [6/8/2012] and the results were disappointing. Estimates were that non-farm
payroll would add around 100K jobs last month. Instead they added just 80K, which is just over half the number needed to keep up with population growth.
Corn-Crop Forecast Cut as Drought Dims Supply Outlook. The U.S. cut its corn-harvest estimate 12 percent
and said inventories next year will be smaller than forecast in June as the worst Midwest drought since 1988 erodes prospects
for a record crop. Farmers will harvest 12.97 billion bushels (329.45 million metric tons), down from a June
prediction of 14.79 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Analysts expected
13.534 billion, based on the average of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Manufacturing Unexpectedly Shrinks for Second Month. American manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in July
for a second month, reflecting a drop in orders that threatens to undercut a mainstay of the recovery. The Institute for
Supply Management's factory index was 49.8 last month, little changed from a three-year low of 49.7 reached in June, the Tempe,
Arizona-based group said today [8/1/2012]. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a reading of 50.2, according
to the median estimate, just above the 50 mark that separates expansions and contractions.
Jobless claims hold steady.
The number of people filing for their first week of unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, following three straight
weeks of increases, the government said Thursday [8/30/2012]. The Labor Department said 374,000 people filed first-time
jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 25. That was slightly more than the forecasts of economists surveyed by
Briefing.com. The previous week's reading was raised from the initially reported 372,000.
Weak jobs report fuels QE3 hopes.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% from 8.3%, but only as a result of a significant drop in the number of people looking for
jobs. Economists were expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.3%.
August Jobs Miss Expectations: 96k Jobs Added, Rate
at 8.1%. The Department of Labor released its initial report on August non-farm payrolls this morning [9/7/2012].
Job growth in August was a sub-par 96k jobs created. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% though, as more people left the workforce.
Consensus on Wall Street had been for a 125,000 increase in the number of jobs last month. That number is slightly below the
number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth.
Weekly Jobless Claims Jump. The number of Americans filing new claims for
jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, with several states reporting an increase related to Tropical Storm Isaac.
Jobless claims rise more than expected.
Initial claims for unemployment benefit rose more than expected last week, hitting 382,000 compared with a forecast of 370,000 in a
Reuters poll and up from 367,000 the previous week.
Jobless Claims to U.S. Leading Index
Add to Weakness. More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits and an index of leading indicators declined for second
time in three months, adding to signs of weakness in the world's largest economy. Jobless claims decreased by 3,000 in the week ended Sept. 15
to 382,000, Labor Department figures showed today [9/20/2012] in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected
375,000. The New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months fell 0.1 percent after a 0.5 percent
increase in July.
Durable goods drop worst since recession.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday [9/27/2012] durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy
was in the throes of a recession. Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported
4.1 percent gain.
in U.S. Shrinks for First Time Since 2009. Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in September for the first
time in three years, adding to signs manufacturing will contribute less to the economic recovery.
Jobless Claims Hit Four-Month
High. For the third straight week, the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits rose. Thursday's [4/4/2013]
increase was quite dramatic. Though economists expected new claims to fall to 350,000, claims actually rose to 385,000 —
the highest number since November. The four-week rolling average also increased to 354,250.
in U.S. Tapers Off as Economy Fails to Gain Speed. American employers increased their payrolls by 88,000 last month,
compared with 268,000 in February, according to a Labor Department report released Friday [4/5/2013]. It was the slowest
pace of growth since last June, and less than half of what economists had expected.
The 'New' Economy Takes
Shape. It is amazing just how wrong economists were in their predictions for the number of jobs that were to be created in
March. The "consensus" figure was 200,000 — a far cry from the actual number created which was 88,000. Totally
"unexpected," as usual.
Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic
Recovery. The unexpectedly large number of American workers who piled into the Social Security Administration's disability
program during the recession and its aftermath threatens to cost the economy tens of billions a year in lost wages and diminished tax revenues.
GDP Might Fuel Slow-Growth Fears. The economy regained speed in the first quarter, but not as much as expected, heightening
fears it could struggle to cope with deep government spending cuts and higher taxes. Gross domestic product expanded at a
2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, after growth nearly stalled in the fourth quarter. Economists
had expected a 3.0 percent growth pace.
Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery.
Anyone hoping for signs of a healthy economic recovery was disappointed by lower-than-expected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2013 — a
mere 2.5%, far short of the forecast 3.2%.
GDP grows 1.8% in Q1, below estimates.
The economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the government reported Wednesday [6/26/2013], well below previous estimates of
2.4% growth and missing forecasts.
U.S. Economy Adds 195,000 Jobs in June. The U.S. economy added
195,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and more than May's figure, perhaps alleviating some concerns that the labor market is stuck in neutral and not
contributing enough to the economic recovery. The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%. Economists had predicted an increase of
165,000 jobs and that the rate would drop to 7.5% from a month earlier.
Economy added a disappointing 162,000
jobs in July. July was supposed to mark the starting point for an amped-up economy. Instead, data on Friday [8/2/2013] showed the
recovery remains stuck in second gear. The Labor Department said that the economy added 162,000 jobs in July — enough to nudge the
unemployment rate down to 7.4 percent, but short of analysts' expectations.
Canadian Job Creation Triples Forecasts in
August. Canadian employment rose faster than economists forecast in August, gaining for the first time in three months led by part-time work
and service industries. [...] Canada's dollar jumped as the gain contrasted with a U.S. report that showed payrolls rose by less than was forecast.
2013 ends with weakest job growth in years.
The job market suddenly looks a lot weaker than economists' had thought. Hiring slumped sharply in December, as the economy added only 74,000
jobs, according to the government. This was the weakest month for job growth since January 2011 and came as a huge surprise to economists,
who were expecting an addition of 193,000 jobs.
All Your Health Are Belong to Us.
"Expect the unexpected" has been good advice for anyone following American economic news since 2009. That news has usually been bad, and
almost always "unexpectedly" so. [...] A cynical observer might suggest that there is an element of deliberate spin involved, with reporters
hoping to keep readers' expectations afloat until next month's report.
Temperatures Lift US Economy. Economists had expected growth to accelerate in 2014 after two years of
slow and steady improvement. But an unusually bitter winter sent factories, hiring and consumer spending into
U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks by 1 Percent. We know that... err... certain things
shrink on contact with the cold, and the winter is among the factors being blamed for an unexpected
1 percent contraction in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). After healthy growth in the fourth
quarter of 2013, a slight slowdown was expected at the beginning of 2014, but the downturn caught
economists by surprise. The last economic contraction was during the first quarter of 2011.
than forecast file jobless claims. The number of Americans filing for unemployment
benefits unexpectedly rose last week to a two-month high, interrupting a steady decrease to the
lowest level since before the last recession. Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 315,000 in the
week ended Sept. 6, which included the Labor Day holiday, a Labor Department report showed Thursday
[9/11/2014]. It was the highest reading since June 28 and exceeded the Bloomberg survey median
forecast of 300,000. The data are difficult to adjust during holiday periods, a Labor Department
spokesman said as the figures were released.
claims surge to 11-week high. The number of people who applied for new unemployment
benefits in the week before Thanksgiving jumped to an 11-week high and topped the 300,000 mark for
the first time since early September, fresh government data showed Wednesday [11/26/2014]. Initial
jobless claims leaped by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the Labor Department said.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast claims to total a seasonally adjusted 288,000.
surges as U.S. unemployment stays steady at 5.8 percent. The U.S. economy added a
whopping 321,000 jobs in November — far more than analysts had expected —
although the national jobless rate remained stuck at 5.8 percent, the Labor Department reported
Friday [12/5/2014]. The November number of new jobs was nearly 50 percent higher than the
consensus economist forecast, and sparked an early rally on world stock markets. The Labor
Department also revised September's report up by 15,000 to 271,000 jobs, and revised October up by
29,000 jobs to 243,000.
U.S. Adds 142,00 Jobs in September, Badly
Missing Expectations. The U.S. added 142,000 new jobs in September, a disappointing figure that fell well below expectations.
[...] The headline unemployment rate held steady 5.1%, according to figures released by the U.S. Labor Department, but the labor force
participation rate fell slightly to 62.4% from the prior month, another ominous sign that usually suggests discouraged job seekers are
no longer even looking for work. Economists had forecast 203,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate would remain at 5.1%.