The Unexpected

Synopsis by The Editor:
Under President Obama, bad news about the economy was always unexpected.  Under President Trump, good news is always unexpected.

Anyone Notice That The Trump Recovery Is Doing Much Better Than Expected?  A news report out on Monday [9/21/2020] said that 83% of companies in the S&P 500 beat expectations for earnings in the second quarter of the year, the first time that's happened in more than a decade.  That's been a common refrain over the past several months, as the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns has repeatedly outperformed what the "experts" expected.  Here's a sampling of headlines:
  •   "US economy added 1.8m jobs in July, beating expectations"
  •   "Jobs Numbers in July Beat Expectations for Third Straight Month"
  •   "Corporate Earnings Beat Analysts' Lowered Expectations"
  •   "US consumer sentiment hit a 6-month high in September, beating economist forecasts"
  •   "U.S. new home sales beat expectations in July"
In some cases, the difference between what economists were predicting at the start of the pandemic and what's actually occurred is stark.

Optimistic Recovery — Weekly Jobless Claims 860k, Lower Than Expected.  The U.S. Department of Labor has released weekly jobless claims totals showing an employment recovery effort still underway.  While the initial claims are 860,000 they are lower than expectations, highlighting positive job gains in the overall economy.

Media Pushes Unverified Gossip To Hide Trump's Amazing Economic And Foreign Policy Achievements.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced another historic month of job growth as the economy added 1.4 million jobs in August.  It was the fourth-best month of job growth on record dating back to 1939 (and likely ever), beaten out only by the preceding three months.  As a result, the country's unemployment rate dropped to 8.4 percent from its post-pandemic high of 14.7 percent.  Recall that in April the Congressional Budget Office forecast a 16 percent unemployment rate for the third quarter.  By historical measures — by any measure, really — this is a remarkable resurgence.

Number of Job Openings Rose Far More than Expected in July.  The number of job openings rose significantly more than expected in July, up to 6.6 million from an upwardly revised 6.0 million, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.  While hires fell to 5.8 million in July from a historically high level around 7.0 million over the last two months, total separations were largely unchanged at 5.0 million.

Jobs numbers show the 'second wave' hasn't stopped the economy.  When Nancy Pelosi sneaked into a San Francisco salon maskless for an illegal coiffing, it turns out that her actions reflected those of her fellow citizens across the country.  We refer not to the illegality of her actions — most people feel bound by and obey local laws — but to the fact that members of the public, like the speaker, refused to submit to perpetual lockdown.  Instead, regardless of how their state or local governments reacted to the second surge of coronavirus cases, people spent the month of August reopening and getting back to work.  In the end, 1.4 million more people were back on the job last month than in July.  But even more impressive was the unexpected plunge in the unemployment rate back down to the single digits — just 8.4%, down sharply from April's high of 14.7% — shows that nothing can keep this country's spirit down.

Trump's Recovering Economy Beats Expectations Again!.  President Donald Trump's economy has once again beaten expectations, this time with unemployment falling to single digits for the first time since COVID hysteria hit the country.  The U.S. economy also added another 1.37 million jobs in August as the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the first time it has been under ten percent since early this year.  Economists were a bit more dour with their predictions and had forecast a pick up of 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent.  Trump beat both of those predictions.

ABC News downplays good news in latest jobs report.  The latest unemployment report issued by the government was unexpectedly positive, but readers wouldn't know it from the tweet ABC News issued Friday morning [9/4/2020].  [Tweet]  While the tweet correctly noted the number of jobs added last month, it also said that the unemployment rate fell "slightly" to 8.4% from July.  Slightly?  In July ,the government reported that the unemployment rate was 10.2%.  Expectations by economists predicted that the August rate would be in the neighborhood of 9.8% which would qualify as a slight improvement.

Trump economy adds another 3.7 million jobs in August with 13.8 million total jobs recovered since April as rapid recovery continues.  The U.S. economy added another 3.7 million jobs in the month of August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey of Americans reporting they have jobs, bringing the total up to 13.8 million jobs that have been recovered since labor markets bottomed in April, something almost nobody but President Donald Trump was predicting.  The news comes as COVID-19 cases continue to stabilize nationwide, including in Texas, California, Florida and Arizona where cases saw a brief uptick this summer.  At the worst of the coronavirus recession, as many as 25 million jobs were lost by April, and now more thanhalf of those jobs have been regained, as a V-shaped recovery has clearly formed.

Better Than Expected!  U.S. Economy Added 1.37 Million Jobs in August, Unemployment Fell to 8.4%.  The U.S. economy added 1.37 million jobs in August and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, providing reassurance that the labor market has kept up some of its post-lockdown momentum.  Economists had forecast an addition of around 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent from 10.2 percent last week.

Unemployment plunged to 8.4% in August as the economy added 1.4M jobs.  The economy added 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell 1.8 percentage points to 8.4%, the Labor Department reported on Friday [9/4/2020], as hiring has slowed from prior months.  The report beat economists' expectations, which were for about 1.3 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 9.8%, although the job gains were boosted by temporary hiring for the Census.

ADP's Disappointing July Jobs Report Offset by June's Upward Revision.  ADP's National Employment Report was a massive miss.  Most private economists were expecting job growth in July to approach two million, as the economy continues to recover from the COVID shutdown.  Instead, ADP reported just 167,000 new jobs were created in July.  The miss, however, is likely to be offset when the Department of Labor reports on Friday, with expectations that it will show July job growth more in line with expectations of about two million.  ADP's miss was also softened by its revision upward of June's jobs numbers, from the 2.4 million new jobs it reported last month to 4.3 million as more accurate data became available.

U.S. stocks hits record high, ending shortest bear market in history.  Defying the coronavirus pandemic's mounting human and economic toll, stocks closed Tuesday at a record high, bringing an end to the shortest bear market in U.S. history.  After notching three consecutive weeks of gains, the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 3,389, gaining 0.2 percent on the day.  The finish capped a remarkable comeback from the March plunge that slashed 34 percent off the previous record, set Feb. 19, as the pandemic tightened its grip on the country.  Investors Tuesday [8/18/2020] brushed aside worries about the nation's continuing struggle to contain the pandemic, focusing instead on signs of strength in the housing and retail sectors.  Housing starts in July rose 22.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of nearly 1.5 million, the Commerce Department said.  Permits also rose sharply for both single- and multifamily dwellings.

More Good Economic News.  The July jobs report came out today [8/7/2020], and it exceeded Wall Street's expectations with 1.8 million new payroll jobs.  Unemployment dropped to 10.2%.  Together with job gains in May and June, 42% of the jobs that were lost in March and April have now been regained.  Democrats have been hoping that COVID shutdowns would cause enough pessimism about the economy to push them to victory in November.

July Jobs Report — 1.8 Million Jobs Recovered.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July jobs report earlier this morning.  Overall during this phase of the economic recovery the U.S. added 1.8 million jobs in July, with strong recovery in:  Leisure and Hospitality (+592k), Retail Trade (+258k) and professional and business services (+170k).  Strong steady gains continue in manufacturing, construction and transportation as more businesses begin to re-open and provide products and services into an economy with strong underlying demand.  Durable goods inventories are low, those need to be replaced.

U.S. Adds 1.8 Million Jobs, Unemployment Drops to 10.2 Percent.  The U.S. unemployment rate dropped from 11.1 percent to 10.2 percent in July, beating economists' predictions even as many states have paused or reversed their reopenings in light of coronavirus case spikes.  Employers added 1.8 million jobs in July, according to the Labor Department's Friday jobs report, a significant slowing down from the 4.8 million jobs created in June, which was the highest recorded.  While the economy has recovered 42 percent of the 22 million jobs it lost during the pandemic over the past three months, there are still 10.6 million more unemployed Americans today than there were in February.

Wholesale Prices Drop in June; Economists Confounded.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday [7/10/2020] that wholesale prices dropped by 0.2 percent in June.  Economists were expecting an increase of 0.4 percent.  Confounding those economists further, wholesale prices have dropped by nearly one full percentage point over the last year.  Common sense says that when the supply of money and currency increases, price increases are sure to follow.  And the money supply has certainly been increasing.  From the currency creator itself, the Federal Reserve, comes this:  In the last 12 months, from May 2019 through April 2020, the M1 money supply (cash plus checking accounts) has increased by 33.5 percent.

U.S. adds record 4.8 million jobs in June, Labor bureau reports.  The U.S. added 4.8 million jobs during the month of June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday [7/2/2020].  The unemployment rate fell to 11.1%.  The jobs figure exceeds the 3 million estimate from economists.

Republicans must hold firm and reject unemployment extension.  On July 9, weekly jobless claims slowed to 1.3 million.  While still high by historical standards, the number was lower than expected and well below the stunning 6.6 million claims filed in just one week of April.

Five Million Americans Back to Work in June.  Nearly five million Americans returned to work last month, new data released Thursday show, with unemployment numbers outpacing economists' projections for the second month in a row.  The overall unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, with drops in unemployment across all sexes and ethnic groups.

Jobs Not Mobs.  The jobs report released Thursday smashed expectations, with the creation of over 4.8 million new jobs in June.  That welcome news follows 2.5 million jobs added in May as the economy continues to rebound under Trump's leadership post-lockdown.  But that's not all.  After years of negotiations, the president just inked the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Monday, benefitting America's farmers and car manufacturers.  The International Trade Commission estimates it will create up to 589,000 new American jobs.

Jobs Report Shows Nearly Five Million Jobs Added in June.  The U.S. economy, recovering from the government-mandated lockdowns to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus, rebounded sharply in June, exceeding forecasters' expectations and confirming yesterday's report from ADP.  According to the Labor Department, the economy generated nearly five million jobs in June, as those mandates lifted and restaurants and bars reopened.  The unemployment rate dropped to 11 percent, down two percent from May and nearly half what it was in April.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by three million jobs.

Private Sector Employment Gains 2,369,000 Jobs in June, Historic Rebound in May.  The ADP National Employment Report found private sector employment increased by 2,369,000 jobs in June and the prior month was revised to show historic job gains.  The historic gains come after a historic loss in April. [...] While the headline number missed the forecast, a large and expected upward revision to the month prior more than makes up for the miscalculation.

Economy Gained 4.8 Million Jobs in June as Unemployment Rate Declines for Second-Straight Month.  The U.S. economy added nearly 5 million jobs in June, beating expectations for the second straight month as unemployment fell to 11 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday [7/2/2020].  Non-farm payrolls rose by a record 4.8 million for the month, with over 40 percent of that coming in 2.1 million new jobs for the leisure and hospitality industries.  The numbers are nearly double the gains in May, which saw 2.5 million jobs added.

Manufacturing Recovery Was Much Stronger Than Expected in June.  Factory activity in the U.S. surged higher than expected in June, suggesting that the broader economy grew for the second consecutive month after April's contraction.  The Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity jumped 9.5 percentage points to 52.6 in June.  The gauge of new orders rose 24.6 points to 56.4, the largest ever monthly increase.  The production component of the index also rose by more than 24 points to 57.3.

New Home Sales Skyrocket 16.6% Blowing Past Expectations.  New home sales jumped a whopping 16.6% in May, blowing past the estimates of a 2.9% rise.  The May increase in sales is nearly 13 percent higher than the same month one year ago.  Home sales are a key indicator of economic health because purchases of homes requires (1) income, a stable job; and (2) an optimistic financial outlook from the buyer.

Retail Sales Jump Nearly 20% In May, Economy Shows Signs Of Resurgence.  Retail sales had an incredible rebound in May, according to economic experts, charging up 17.7% as stores and other businesses reopened following coronavirus-related lockdowns.  The Trump administration has been touting a possible "v-shaped" economic recovery for weeks as initial unemployment claims have begun to taper off and Americans leave their homes and re-enter society for the first time following months of pandemic-related isolation.  Many key economic indicators are beating expert projections, leading the White House to suggest that the American economy may be swiftly bouncing back from its sudden — but largely unavoidable — recession.

Advance Retail Sales Soar 17.7% in May, Largest Monthly Gain Ever.  The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance retail sales came in at $485.5 billion in May, soaring a record 17.7% (± 0.5%) and recovering more than the loss in April.  While still down 6.1% (± 0.7%) from the year-ago level, it's the largest monthly gain ever on record and far better than economists expected.

New York Manufacturing Index "Unexpectedly" Surges.  The U.S. media are in ideological alignment with blue state governors and congressional democrats to hype COVID-19 panic as a method to keep the economy from reopening.  To advance this narrative the crowds during mass protects they approve of are ignored; but any crowd at an event they do not align with is used to push panic.  Everyone can see this.  The New York manufacturing index shocked everyone earlier today [6/15/2020] showing a strong rebound.  The index "unexpectedly" surged 48 points in June surprising all economic forecasters.

Shocked Reactions to Stupendous May Jobs Report.  There was quite a bit of shock today [6/5/2020] when it was announced that the unemployment rate declined in May despite most economists predicting it would rise to 20%.  Here are a few shocked reactions to the May jobs report.  My favorite reaction is from the angry guy who is whining that the unemployment really rose but that the stats were faked by the Labor Department.  [Video clip]

Signs the economy will escape the worst-case pandemic scenario.  The economy won't suffer the worst-case scenario following the pandemic, if the most recent signs are predictive.  Employers added 2.5 million jobs in May, the Labor Department reported Friday [6/5/2020] in a report that shocked forecasters, who expected millions more in job losses.  The details of the report suggest that workers who were laid off as social distancing began are beginning to get rehired and that aspects of the government effort to keep them connected to their old jobs are working.

Unemployment Falls to 13.3% and Economy Adds 2.5 million Jobs.  The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent and payrolls unexpectedly rose by 2.5 million workers as the easing of restrictions on business activity and government aid led to new hiring in May.  The U.S. unemployment rate fell below last month's record-high 14.7 percent, which was the highest on record in data going back to 1948. [...] Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to nearly 20 percent and the economy to shed an additional 8 million jobs.

May's unemployment report was stunning — here's what happened, and why economists got it wrong.  Most economists expected May's jobs report to be a disaster, possibly even the worst on record.  Instead, the Labor Department reported Friday morning that employers actually added 2.5 million jobs last month — easily the most ever created in a one-month period — and the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 percent. [...] What happened, and why did economists get it so wrong?

The Trump recovery is ahead of schedule.  President Trump claimed vindication Friday as a surprise positive jobs report previewed what he called the "greatest comeback in American history" for a coronavirus-crippled economy — and perhaps for his own reelection campaign.  Unemployment dropped to 13.3% in May as the economy added 2.5 million jobs, the Department of Labor reported.  Forecasters had expected a loss of 8 million jobs and an unemployment rate of 20%.  Trump himself might not have been expecting such success so soon.

Best news yet of 2020: Signs America's bouncing back fast.  Just when it felt like the country was completely falling apart comes great news:  surprising, unprecedented job growth along with clear signs that the national pandemic has ebbed far from its peak.  This doesn't resolve the convulsions following the killing of George Floyd, but at least America is finally starting to put the previous crisis behind.  Even as much of the nation has begun to reopen, economists predicted that the May jobs numbers would continue to depress.  Many predicted US unemployment to reach Depression-era levels of around 20 percent.

Donald Trump Celebrates Unexpected Jobs Jump.  President Donald Trump on Friday celebrated a new jobs report showing better-than-expected economic numbers in the month of May. [...] The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May from a record high of 14.7 percent in April and payrolls unexpectedly rose by 2.5 million workers.  Economists estimated the unemployment rate would rise to nearly 20 percent in May and that the economy would shed an additional 8 million jobs.

Unemployment rate falls to 13.3 percent as economy gains surprise 2.5 million jobs despite coronavirus.  The U.S. economy gained 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 percent.  That's down from 14.7 percent in April, according to the monthly employment report released Friday [6/5/2020] by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

WaPo Get Blasted for Pre-Writing Doom and Gloom Story About Job Numbers, Busted When Real Numbers Come Out.  Does the media hope that the economy continues to be bad as we start to come out of the pandemic and people are beginning to go back to work in some areas?  It sure seems like they'd rather that we continue to have an issue with the economy.  Probably right up to November.  How do we know?  It appears The Washington Post already had their story pre-written about the expected job numbers that came out today.  Except, of course, being the WaPo, they miscalculated.

Huge Shocker of a Jobs Report Released, Media Experts Got It Incredibly Wrong.  When I say shocker, I mean it here.  The jobs report was released this morning with the expectation being that we'd see a 20% unemployment rate.  The New York Times and Politico were already warming up, putting out tweets predicting doom.  The actual numbers turned out to be so far off their predictions that you have to wonder what good these "experts" are at this point.

Consumer Sentiment Holds Up Better Than Expected.  The coronavirus and stock market turmoil have shaken consumer confidence but not as badly as many feared.  The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell by 5 percent to 95.9 in early March.  Economists had predicted a steeper decline to 95.

Main Street Strong — U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims "Unexpectedly Drop".  The stock market is not the U.S. economy.  The stock market is an investment instrument.  Yes, the downstream consequences from coronavirus mitigation efforts means there is likely going to be temporary, very specific, fluxes within the Main Street economy.  Entertainment, hospitality and leisure are likely to see the strongest initial impacts.  However, as noted by the release of weekly jobless claims the U.S. economy is very strong.

Coronavirus By The Numbers.  Stoking fear over quarantines and supply chain disruptions have sent the stock market on a downward roller coaster ride.  One of President Trump's major achievements is the roaring economy.  Taking the stock market down 25% or more may help the Democrats.  But by the numbers, the economy is still roaring, bolstered by the February jobs report of 273,000 added jobs, more than expected, and record low 3.5% unemployment.

Democrats Aren't Going to Like Trump's New Job Growth and Unemployment Numbers.  America's strong job growth is surprising even the experts.  They predicted that there would be 175,000 new jobs in February.  Instead, the economy created 273,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent.  What's more, December and January's job numbers were adjusted upward by 243,000.

Anyone Notice That Trump's Economy Keeps Beating Expectations?  February's jobs report "smashed expectations."  That's how one news site described the latest monthly employment numbers out of the Commerce Department, which showed the economy created 273,000 jobs last month.  Smashing expectations has become a regular feature of the Trump economy.  Anyone care to guess why?  Based on the consensus forecast of economists, the first two months of this year should have seen a total of 335,000 jobs created.  The actual number was 63% higher:  546,000.  For the past four months, job growth has averaged 248,000, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised several previous months' gains sharply upward.  In the best year under President Barack Obama, job growth averaged 250,000 a month.

Another Phenomenal Jobs Report:  "Experts," Corrupt Media Hardest Hit.  Another month, another incredible jobs report that blasts through the projections by all the "experts." — The Labor Department's monthly jobs report is out. [...] February jobs gains in the Trump economy amounted 273,000, beating "expert" projections by a whopping 98,000 jobs.  This during a month in which the Democrats and their corrupt media toadies did everything they could to depress economic growth by whipping up irrational hysteria over the coronavirus.

February Jobs Report: 273,000 Added, Unemployment At 3.5%.  Job numbers in February smashed predictions from economists, who warned that jobs might take a hit due to increasing illness and anxieties stemming from the coronavirus.  Nevertheless, they predicted 175,000 new jobs would be added and that the unemployment rate would remain at 3.6%, according to CNN.

Trump administration touts policy wins in annual report.  The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations across a number of areas, according to the annual Economic Report of the President.  That report along with details from the Council of Economic Advisers shows growth in output, employment, and employee compensation all exceeding pre-2017 forecasts.

The Facts About Trump That Are Deadly For Democrats.  Trump laid out a long list of his economic achievements in his State of the Union address, yet there's actually more.  As we noted here Tuesday, four days after the speech the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us the economy created 225,000 more jobs than expected in January.  The BLS also announced average hourly wages grew 3.1% over a year ago, another mark that beat expectations.  It was also the 18th straight month in which wages increased by at least 3%.

ADP Says 291,000 New Jobs in January; It's More Like 336,000.  The jobs report from ADP on Wednesday [2/5/2020] understated job growth in January.  Based on its own payrolls, the growth of private employment in the United States wasn't 291,000.  It was actually 336,100 when new jobs created by franchises were included.  The new jobs appeared in every sector of the economy, from small businesses to large and from goods-producing to service-providing.  Small businesses added 94,000 new jobs; medium sized companies added 128,000 while large companies (500 employees and up) added 69,000.  Those running franchise operations hired 45,100 new people in January.  Construction and manufacturing added 55,000 jobs, while professional and business services hired 49,000.  Education added 70,000, while the leisure and hospitality sector brought on 96,000 new people.

63.4%: Labor Force Participation at Trump-Era High As Labor Force Grows by 574,000.  President Donald Trump never misses an opportunity to plug the strong employment picture for which he takes credit, and today he earned more bragging rights:  The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy created 225,000 in January, well above estimates.

225,000 Jobs Added in January, and Still No Media-Predicted Recession.  The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report found that the Trump economy is continuing to pump jobs into the market.  And yet, still no evidence of the recession the liberal media have been howling about.  The most recent jobs report found that the U.S. economy added 225,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the month of January, destroying economists' expectations of 158,000 jobs.

U.S. Jobs Top Estimates With 225,000 Gain, Wages Accelerate.  U.S. employers ramped up hiring in January and wage gains rebounded, providing fresh evidence of a durable jobs market that backs the Federal Reserve's decision to stop cutting interest rates and hands President Donald Trump an early election-year boost.  Payrolls increased by 225,000 after an upwardly revised 147,000 gain in December, according to a Labor Department data Friday that topped all estimates of economists.

Private sector job growth blows past Wall Street's expectations in January with 291,000 added.  Private employers added 291,000 jobs in January, soaring past economists' expectations for the best monthly gain in more than five years, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report.  The total far exceeded the 156,000 jobs that economists surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting.  "Mild winter weather provided a significant boost to the January employment gain," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement.  "The leisure and hospitality and construction industries in particular experienced an outsized increase in jobs."

U.S. Housing Starts Jump 16.9% in December, 1.608 Million Units.  The Commerce Department announces U.S. housing starts in December jumped a whopping 16.9 percent in December with 1.608 million units.  Blowing away forecast expectation of 1.375 million units; with the largest gain since 2006.

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop 10,000 to 204,000.  The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week.  Jobless claims fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ended January 10.  Economists had expected a small rise from 214,000 to 215,000.

ADP Payroll Release:  December Employment Jumps +202,000.  A new ADP Payroll Report shows job gains of 202,000 from November to December 2019 far surpassing expectations.  The increase was the largest gain since April '19: "largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services.  Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by mid-sized companies."

Where's the stock market collapse after big, bad Iran threatened to destroy the world?  Stock markets love global stability, because no matter where there is instability, chances are good there are funds invested in the region.  So it made sense — somewhat — that oil prices rose following President Donald Trump's decision to send Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani to hell with a Hellfire missile.  But you'd have thought that the entire financial world was going to collapse.  After the strike, "WorldWar3" was trending all over social media despite the fact that the Iranian regime and military would not last 48 hours under a withering U.S. assault.

One Trillion Dollars Repatriated So Far, Reports Commerce Department.  According to the U.S. Department of Commerce American companies have repatriated more than a trillion dollars of their overseas profits since Trump's "tax holiday" was announced in 2017.  As part of his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act corporate profits held overseas would enjoy a one-time levy of just 15.5 percent tax on profits held overseas instead of the punishing 35 percent rate that existed prior.  As Walter Wriston, former chairman and CEO of Citicorp, famously said, "Capital will always go where it's welcome and stay where it's well treated."  But forecasters at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania weren't impressed.  They predicted "that TCJA (Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) will raise [just] $254 billion in revenue over the next ten years."  Instead, Trump's tax law raised four times that amount in just two years.

Impeachment Aside, Trump Just Had A Great Week.  [Scroll down]  The past week has also seen a string of still more good economic news, which suddenly caused mainstream economists to put aside their dire warnings of a recession next year.  Now they are forecasting steady, if modest, growth in 2020.

Trump's Unexpected Jobs Boom Leaves Dems Incoherent.  Job growth in November came in 79,000 higher than economists had expected, something that has become a regular occurrence under President Trump, where the economy has repeatedly defied what the "experts" forecast. [...] How about unemployment?  The CBO figured the unemployment rate would be 4.7% by now, and climbing.  Instead, it's now down to 3.5% — the lowest since December 1969.

Strong jobs report is a disaster for doomsayers and Democrats.  Friday's November jobs numbers offered another example of why [the Democrats] cannot discuss the issue with any credibility — and also why their challenge to Trump is an uphill climb.  The November jobs report showed that the U.S. economy remains strong, even as the rest of the world slows down.  Not only were an astounding 266,000 net jobs added to the economy last month — far above expectations — but the previous two months were revised upward as well for a combined gain of an additional 35,000 jobs.  Unemployment, already at a level below what economists once thought to be full employment, ticked downward again to 3.5%.  And for Democrats, this is a disaster.

How a Strong Job Market Has Proved the Experts Wrong.  There are a lot of good things to say, and few bad things to say, about the November employment numbers that were published Friday morning [12/6/2019].  Employers added 266,000 jobs, a blockbuster number even after accounting for the one-time boost of about 41,000 striking General Motors workers who returned to the job.  Revisions to previous months' job counts were positive.  The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching its lowest level since 1969.

America Created 266,000 Jobs in November.  The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs for the month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching the lowest level in 50 years.  Economists had expected the economy to add 180,000 jobs and for unemployment to remain unchanged at 3.6 percent, according to Econoday.  Adding to the picture of strength for the labor market, previous jobs numbers were revised up.  September's figure was revised up by 13,000 to 193,000.  October was revised up by 28,000 to 156,000.  Together, that adds 41,000 more jobs than previously reported.

Democrats are running into Trump's economic buzzsaw.  For the past couple of years, the potential for an economic downturn has kept jittery Democrats from getting too nervous about the 2020 presidential election.  Even if Robert Mueller and his Russia investigation didn't get President Trump — and now the Ukraine impeachment investigation — then the American economy surely would.  There was no way four years of Trump's trade wars and general incompetence wouldn't result in a nasty recession and a one-term Trump presidency, right?  Now it's looking more and more like the back-up plan might need a back-up plan.  Wall Street economists and forecasting models don't see more than a one-in-three chance of an economic downturn next year.  There's even a reasonable scenario of an economic upturn.

U.S. adds better-than-expected 128,000 jobs in October as economy holds strong.  The U.S. created 128,000 new jobs in October and hiring was stronger at the end of summer than previously reported, suggesting the economy is still holding up better than expected despite trade turbulence and a slowdown in global growth.  The increase in hiring last month easily topped the 75,000 forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.  Wall Street had expected a six-week GM GM, +1.53% strike to result in a much smaller increase in employment last month.

US adds surprisingly strong 128,000 jobs in October amid GM strike.  The US labor market took a hit in October from an extended strike at General Motors but the economy kept adding jobs at a solid pace, the government reported Friday [11/1/2019].  The steady hiring showed demand for workers remained resilient despite President Donald Trump's protracted trade war with China, which has chilled investment and slowed the economy.

US economy added 128K jobs in October, beating estimates.  The U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%, according to new data released Friday [11/1/2019], overcoming the drag from a monthlong General Motors strike that ended last week.  The monthly employment report from the Labor Department far exceeded expectations from forecasters, who predicted 75,000 jobs would be created in October, a sharp dip from 136,000 in September.  Unemployment was expected to increase slightly to 3.6% from 3.5% last month when the country saw a 50-year low.

It's The Economy, Stupid.  A little more than three years ago, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicted that a Trump presidency would cause the economy to spiral into a recession.  This week, Zandi is predicting that the strong economy could all but assure a Trump reelection.  No wonder Democrats avoid the topic like the plague.  "It's pretty clear that everyone would end up in a pretty bad place," is how Zandi described life under President Donald Trump in June 2016.  That was assuming Congress enacted Trump's agenda, which Zandi said was highly unlikely.  Zandi wasn't alone, of course.  He is, in fact, the epitome of conventional economists.

Trump's Economy: 1.6 Million More Jobs Than The 'Experts' Predicted.  The economy created 136,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of businesses.  The separate household survey, which is used to track unemployment, showed that the number of unemployed dropped by 275,000.  Not only did the job market pull 275,000 off the unemployment line last month, it pulled more than 100,000 who had dropped out of the labor force back into the job market.  This is good news, but it continues to confound mainstream economists, who solemnly predicted at the start of Trump's administration that we faced a "secular stagnation."  Any talk of strong economic growth was a fantasy.  When the economy started to outperform expectations, liberals shrugged it off by claiming that the upturn in growth was all baked in the cake when President Obama was president.  That is false.

Amid Too Much Good MAGAnomic Data, Bloomberg Cancels the Recession.  Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor Department's report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels.  Also last week, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007.  Then came the Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue to expand.  And if that wasn't too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was double expectations.

Consumer Sentiment Rebounds More Than Expected, Dousing Recession Fears.  After plunging in August, U.S. consumer rebounded by more than expected in the first weeks in September, according to data released Friday [9/13/2019] by the University of Michigan.  Consumers felt better about both current conditions and their expectations for the future, according to the preliminary September survey.  Economists had expected the University of Michigan's gauge to bounce to 91 after the August decline to 88.  On Friday, however, the reading was 92.

Retail Sales Jump Higher as Car Sales Shift to Higher Gear and Online Purchases Climb.  Americans boosted their spending on cars and online purchases in August, supporting economic growth and pushing retail sales higher than economists had expected.  Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in August from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday.  The figures include sales at department stores, restaurants, car dealerships, gas stations, and online shops.

Retail Sales Show "Unexpected" Growth in August -AND- Despite Tariffs, Import Prices Drop.  The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.  The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted.  The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.  These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

August Private Sector Payroll Results Exceed Expectations.  ADP Payroll analysis for August reflects continued strong gains in the jobs market beating all expectations from the financial pundits.  The official government stats will be released tomorrow (private and public sector); in the interim the ADP payroll of private sector job creation shows that Main Street continues to be very strong.

US job growth stumbles in August with 130,000 added.  U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in August, missing Wall Street's expectations, as trade uncertainty and slowing global growth darkened the economic outlook.  The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7 percent, near a 50-year low, while the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.2 percent.  Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose 3.2 percent over the past year to $28.11.  That was slightly higher than projections of 3.1 percent.

The Only Reason For Recession? The Prospect Of Trump Ever Leaving Office.  If wishing for a recession could make it so, then the economy would be headed over a steep cliff.  The hate-Trump left's drumbeat for a hoped-for R word has been growing louder and more persistent with every passing day.  They point to polls of economists predicting a 2020 recession and never mind that this is the same crowd of academics who told us that Trump election would cause a "global economic calamity."  These are the people who said the economy was overdue for a recession three years ago.  These are the very same prophets who said the Trump tax cut wouldn't work to create jobs and higher wages.  These were the academic whiz kids who said the economy couldn't grow faster than 2 percent ("the new normal") and who said that manufacturing and mining jobs weren't coming back.

MAGAnomics — Consumer Confidence Index Beats Expectations.  The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing.  The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position.  Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations.

Consumer Spending Beats Expectations.  If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results.  July spending more than doubled expectations.  July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent.  Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy.  Doesn't exactly sound like Main Street is on the precipice of a recession.

US payrolls add 164,000 new workers in July.  U.S. employers hired 164,000 workers in July, bolstering an erratic labor market whose growth remains significantly slower than in 2018.

The Editor says...
Slower growth is still growth.

Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge to 209,000.  The number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market has continued to strengthen following a brief stumble in May.  Initial claims dropped by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended July 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday [7/11/2019].  Economists had expected claims to rise to 223,000.

Jobs, growth, and higher wages leave Democratic contenders searching for excuses.  Friday's [7/5/2019] June jobs report, with its expectations-shattering gain of 224,000 net jobs (including 17,000 manufacturing jobs) and its 4% unemployment rate (effectively full employment), reinforces what was already popularly understood about the Trump-era economy.  Unemployment is historically low.  Job creation is historically strong.  Wages continue rising under Trump after a long period of stagnation under predecessors of both parties.

Four weird things the left is doing in response to the mighty Trump economy.  The economy is roaring as today's non-farm payrolls report shows.  June job gains showed a greater-than-expected 224,000 gain.  The unemployment rate "nudged" higher to 3.7%, solely because 335,000 discouraged workers are finally reentering the workforce. [...] It follows on from Wednesday's news that U.S. stocks hit an all-time high, with the DJIA ending at just under 27,000. Nasdaq and S&P hit all-time highs, too.  And don't forget the record low black, Latino, female, handicapped, and even ex-con unemployment rates.  We've never seen anything like this before.

Boom! America Created 224,000 Jobs in June!  Job creation reignited in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising 224,000 and unemployment ticking up to 3.7 percent.  The June number will be closely watched after a surprisingly poor showing in May, when the U.S. economy was initially reported to have added just 75,000 jobs.

Record 157,005,000 Employed; 19th Record of Trump Era.  After the Fourth of July fireworks, the fifth of July brings another reason for Americans to celebrate.  A record 157,005,000 people were employed in June, the most since February and the 19th record of Trump's presidency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday [7/5/2019].  And the economy added a strong 224,000 jobs in June, well above the estimate of 160,000.  The unemployment rate, the lowest in 50 years, ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.7 percent.

Strong job growth is back: Payrolls jump in June well above expectations.  Payroll growth rebounded sharply in June as the U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs amid concerns that both the employment picture and overall growth picture were beginning to weaken.  The unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% as labor force participation rose, according to the Labor Department.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 165,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%.

Wall Street Wrong Again — Import Prices Decline During Full Year of Import Tariffs.  The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality.  In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping.

U.S. Job Growth Exceeds Estimates: 275,000 New Jobs Created in April.  Economists polled by MarketWatch expected just 177,000 new jobs to have been created by the U.S. economy in April, once again applying rear-view-mirror thinking to their forecasts.  Instead, not only did the economy generate 275,000 new jobs (according to payroll giant ADP with some help from Moody's), but the gains were across every sector and size of business.

Experts predicted economic Armageddon under Trump — where are they now?  The economy is strong, unemployment is low and wages are rising, according to the latest economic data released Friday, which is in stark contrast to what the vast majority of elite economic opinion predicted just a few years ago from a Trump presidency.  The latest unemployment report has joblessness at 3.6 percent.  Where is the Trump Armageddon Squad now?

263k New Jobs:  The Trump Economy Continues To Defy the 'Experts'.  Even before President Trump took office, then Fed chair Janet Yellen was warning that the economy was dangerously close to "maximum employment." Strong job growth going forward, she said in early January, could spark inflation.  In May of that year — almost exactly two years ago today, in fact — the media's favorite economist, Mark Zandi at Moody's, declared that:  "With the economy at full employment and seeming destined to blow past it, the current expansion is likely entering its later stages.  An overheating economy, where tight labor markets result in significant wage and price pressures, has been a necessary condition for all past recessions."  Oops.  The economy created about 5 million new jobs after Zandi made that statement.  The expansion gained strength.  And inflation is nowhere to be seen.

Unemployment Drops To 3.6%, Payrolls Up 263,000, Showing Economy Remains Strong.  U.S. employers added a better-than-expected 263,000 jobs in April, as the nearly decade-old economic expansion shows no signs of slowing.  And the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% — the lowest in nearly 50 years.  In March, the jobless rate was 3.8%.  A monthly snapshot from the Labor Department showed solid hiring in services, construction and health care.

US job growth surges in April, beating expectations with 263,000 added.  The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April, soaring past Wall Street's expectations for an increase of 185,000 jobs, while unemployment fell to the lowest rate since 1969.  The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent, beating analysts' expectations of 3.8 percent.  The labor force participation rate, meanwhile, was little changed at 62.8 percent, from 63 percent the month prior.  Average hourly earnings — which investors were closely watching for signs of inflation — rose by 6 cents to $27.77.  Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by about 3.2 percent, slightly missing expectations of 3.3 percent.

Unemployment hits 49-year low as US employers step up hiring.  Hiring accelerated and pay rose at a solid pace in April, setting the stage for healthy U.S. economic growth to endure despite fears of a slowdown earlier this year.

Private payrolls surge by 275,000 in April, blowing past estimates in biggest gain since July.  Private payrolls grew by 275,000 last month, the biggest increase since July, when they expanded by 284,000.  Economists polled by Dow Jones expected private payrolls growth of 177,000.  Services-providing jobs increased by 223,000 in April, led by a gain of 59,000 positions in professional and business services.  Education and health services companies added 54,000 jobs while employment within the leisure and hospitality industry expanded by 53,000.

312,000 Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning [4/26/2019], showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than analysts expected.  The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain.  With the December jobs number, President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.

US economic growth rebounds at 3.2 percent pace in first quarter.  The U.S. economy grew more quickly than most economists expected during the first quarter of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.  During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts' expectations of 2.5 percent. [...] Stocks rose on the better-than-expected results in pre-market trading.

U.S. economy hit the gas in the first quarter.  The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter, sprinting past analysts' growth forecasts of 2.3 percent.

US economy grew at 3.2 percent in first quarter, exceeding expectations.  Economic growth in the U.S. blew past expectations in the first quarter of 2019, easing fears of an impending slowdown that kicked off the year [...] Economists had expected U.S. GDP to grow roughly 2.5 percent between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019, typically one of the weaker periods for the American economy.

America Created 196,000 Jobs in March, Beating Expectations for 170,000.  The American economy added 196,000 jobs in March.  The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent, the government said Friday [4/5/2019].  Economists had expected 170,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

Are Experts Who Are Always Wrong Really "Experts" At All?  Why are all the "experts" always so [very] shocked by the jobs reports?  So, the U.S. economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, shocking all the eminent high muckety-muck economists, who predicted from their high towers that the number would be more like 180,000.  Of course, it wasn't just these mysterious "expert" economists who were flummoxed by the wonderful report — the fake news media that has been doing its best to tank the U.S. economy since January 20, 2017 was also in a state of shock about it all.  Here's a sampling of the headlines this morning: [...] The hilarious thing about this is that all these same "experts" were also shocked at every jobs report during the Obama years, but they were invariably shocked because the actual numbers were so low when compared to their pie-in-the-sky expectations.

U.S. Job Growth Surged in December With 312,000 Payrolls Added.  U.S. employers added the most workers in 10 months as wage gains accelerated and labor-force participation jumped, reflecting a robust job market that nevertheless faces mounting risks in 2019.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 312,000 in December, easily topping all forecasts, after an upwardly revised 176,000 gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed Friday [1/4/2019].  Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% from a year earlier, more than projected and matching the fastest pace since 2009.  Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose from a five-decade low to 3.9%, reflecting more people actively seeking work.

312,000 Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning, showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than analysts expected.  The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain.  With the December jobs number, President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.

Hiring surged in December, employers added 312,000 jobs.  US employers added 312,000 jobs in December, well above what economists expected and underlining that the American economy remains strong despite recent market turbulence.  The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as more people were looking for work.  It had been at a 50-year low of 3.7% for two of the last three months.  Employers added 2.6 million jobs in 2018, compared to 2.2 million in 2017.  Revisions to the October and November estimates added an additional 58,000 jobs to the 2018 total.

The Editor says...
Notice the quietly revised numbers from previous months.

December Jobs Report Smashed Expectations With 312,000 Jobs.  Economists predicted we'd only see around 176,000 new jobs in December 2018, but the jobs report showed employers added 312,000 jobs instead.  2018 also went out with a bang by averaging 220,000 new jobs every month, which is the best average since 2015.  Unemployment rate went from 3.7% to 3.9%, but that's because labor force participation increased to 63.1%.

Jobs Report Blows Away All Expectations!  The jobs numbers released Friday [1/4/2019] exceeded expectations of economists and are through the roof!  The economy is soaring despite the Democrats efforts to damage it.  How will they spin this?  U.S. jobs increased by 312,000, far better than the predicted 176,000 jobs.  That's nearly double the amount expected!  Wages also grew 3.2% year-over-year vs. an estimated 3%.

Too high or too low.  Why are the expectations always wrong?
Job growth falls short of expectations in November: 155,000 payrolls created vs 198,000 estimate.  Job growth slowed in November amid fears that economic growth is losing steam.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 for the month while the unemployment rate again held at 3.7 percent, its lowest since 1969, the Labor Department reported Friday.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of 198,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady.  Average hourly earnings, a closely watched sign of whether inflation pressures are building, again rose at a 3.1 percent pace from a year ago.  The monthly earnings gain of 0.2 percent fell short of estimates for a 0.3 percent increase.  The average work week edged lower by 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.

The US economy added better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October.  The US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding expectations, the government announced Friday [11/2/2018].  The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, a 49-year low.  Hispanic unemployment reached its lowest rate ever, at 4.4%.  Wages grew 3.1%, relatively robust growth after years of stagnant paychecks.

Wages up 3.1 per cent, 250,000 new jobs and 50-year low unemployment.  U.S. employers added a stellar 250,000 jobs last month and raised average pay by the most in nearly a decade — in a dose of good news for President Trump as he barnstorms the country to try to preserve unified Republican control of national power.  The Labor Department's monthly jobs report, the last major economic data before Tuesday's congressional elections, also showed that the unemployment rate remained at a five-decade low of 3.7 percent.  On a key metric that affects voters, average hourly earnings also increased.  They rose by 0.2 percent from September, an annualized gain of 3.1 percent.  And unemployment remained at a 48 year low.

The Economy Created 250,000 Jobs in October, Wages Rise More Than 3% for First Time Since Recession.  The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, according to Labor Department figures released Friday [11/2/2018].  Economists had predicted the economy would add 190,000 jobs and the unemployment rate would to hold steady at 3.7 percent, the lowest level of joblessness in 49-years.  Friday's data shows that hiring bounced back after an unusually weak September when employers added just 118,000 jobs — the smallest monthly increase in a year.  Over the past 12 months, employers added an average of 211,000 jobs each month.

ADP September Payrolls Grew by 230,000 in September.  Hold on to your MAGA caps there's a winner wonderland ahead.  According to the latest ADP private payroll release today [10/3/2018], private sector payrolls grew by a stunning 230,000 jobs in September.  [They were anticipating 185k]  Massive jobs gains amid small, medium and large sized companies.  This comes on the heels of the latest stats on paychecks which show *average* wage gains around 2.6% over last year.  Key word "average".  There are multiple job sectors with wage increases of four to seven percent; well above the rate of consumer price inflation.

America's GDP advances by 4.2% in 2Q.  America's economy extended its strong momentum in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at a 4.2 percent rate, according to the final revision.  The prior, first revision pegged second-quarter GDP at a 4.2 percent annual rate, above the originally reported 4.1 percent.

Pay No Attention To That 'Unexpected' Good Economic News Over There.  The past week saw more signs that the growing economy is benefiting middle class households, including another jump in household income.  Not that you'd know it from the coverage, which is wall-to-wall Brett Kavanaugh.

Consumer confidence hits 138.4 in September, vs. 132 estimate.  Consumer confidence rose in September, notching its highest level in about 18 years.  The Conference Board's index rose to 138.4 this month from 134.7 in August.  Economists polled by Reuters expected consumer confidence to dip to 132.  "Consumers' assessment of current conditions remains extremely favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth," said said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.  "These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season."  Franco added September's index print is near the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.

The Economy Is Beating The Last Administration's Low Expectations.  Americans are now seeing more jobs, higher wages, and greater investment.  The president of the New York Fed remarked that the economy was neither growing too quickly nor too slowly, describing it as a "Goldilocks economy."  Business optimism has been surging since the last election and the latest National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) survey of small business optimism hit a record high.

Nancy Pelosi Trashes Jobs Report Analysts Call 'Greatest of All Time'.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who would likely become Speaker of the House if Democrats win the midterm elections in November, trashed Friday's [9/7/2018] jobs report — even though Blackrock called it "the greatest of all time."  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 201,000 new jobs in August — more than the 190,000 expected — and unemployment stayed at 3.9%.  Moreover, wages grew 2.9% year-on-year.

US payrolls top growth projections with 201,000 new jobs in August.  The economy gained a better-than-expected 201,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday [9/7/2018].  Economists had predicted 189,000 new jobs, and the report should further solidify the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates amid what officials previously labeled a "strong" U.S. economy.  Experts say job growth should continue into the second half of 2018, fueled partly by last year's tax cuts.

U.S. Wage Gains Pick Up to 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000.  American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.

Higher than Expected Job Growth and Wage Gains in August Signal Economic Strength.  The American economy added 201,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent.  Economists had forecast 191,100 new jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent.  Average hourly earnings increased 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized basis, according to a Department of Labor report released Friday.  That also beat expectations for 2.7 percent wage growth.  In dollar terms, average hourly earnings increased 10 cents from the previous month to $27.16.  Private sector payrolls rose by 204,000.  Mining added 6,000 new jobs.  Construction added 23,000, bringing its total to over 300,000 for the year.

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Plunge to New Post-1969 Record.  Jobless claims fell last week even further to a new post-1969 record of 203,000.  This is the lowest level for initial claims for state unemployment benefits since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000.  The 4-week moving average, considered a better gauge of the labor market because it smooths out week-to-week volatility, fell to 209,500 from 212,250.  This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

There's That Word Again.  Remember during the dark days of the Obungler administration when the Fake News Media always had "unexpected" news about the economy?  Every summer was "recovery summer" but the bad economic news was always "unexpected".  I mean we had the "light bringer", the "almost a god", the Obamessiah in the White House.  What could go wrong?  I had a friend back in St. Louis who voted for Obumbler in 2012 because he "saved us from a depression".  I was shocked when he told me that.  He obviously got his news from the Fake News Media.  I don't believe the myth about the Oblunder recovery.  I maintain that we were in a recession during most of Obongo's term of office.  We were certainly in a jobs recession. [...] Remember, the labor participation during the those disastrous 8 years was very very low.  Under Trump the U6 has been consistently falling and now stands at 7.5%.  Yep!  We are finally in a recovery.  And retail sales are up.  Of course, this was "unexpected".

Economists Think U.S. Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low.  Economists expect the low U.S. unemployment rate to go even lower over the next year, reaching levels not seen in a half-century.  Private-sector economic forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal on average saw the jobless rate — 4% in June after touching 3.8% in May — falling to 3.7% by the end of 2018 and 3.6% by mid-2019.

Nancy Pelosi freaks out over strong jobs report.  The Labor Department announced Friday that June's job report beat expectations.  The U.S. economy added 231,000 new jobs, and over 600,000 new workers entered the workforce as optimism about our nation's future grows.  That's great news to everyone, except House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Jobless claims rise to 231,000, but are still running at historic lows.  New claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose 3,000 to 231,000 to end June, the Department of Labor reported Thursday [7/5/2018], but the report contained good news overall.  The small increase in jobless claims defied forecasters' expectations for claims to drop by 4,000 to 223,000.

Payrolls rise better than expected 213,000 but unemployment rate back at 4%.  The employment part of the economy continued to power forward in June, adding another 213,000 jobs though the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent, according to a government report Friday.  Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a nonfarm payrolls gain of 195,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.8 percent, which had been tied for the lowest since 1969.

Jobs report could signal a 'stampede' back into the workforce.  The better-than-expected June jobs report, which saw the addition of 213,000 new positions to the U.S. economy and an increased labor force participation rate, is evidence of an economy that's returning to work, according to the Council of Economic Advisers chairman.  "What we want to do is reconnect people who were discouraged by the bad economy that President Trump inherited, and we want to bring them back into society and get them back to work," Kevin Hassett said during a FOX Business interview with Charles Payne on Friday.  "It's clear that this is the real message of work, almost the stampede back into the labor department."

Nancy Pelosi Trashes June Jobs Report, Warns of 'Brewing Storm' of Wealth and Opportunity.  Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) trashed the June jobs report — even though it showed rapid job growth, rising wages, and low unemployment.  The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that employers created 213,000 new jobs in June — 22,000 more than economists had expected.  Manufacturing jobs in particular rose by 36,000.  The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.8% to 4.0% — but that was partly because so many people are entering (or re-entering) the labor force.

June jobs growth jumps with 213K jobs added while unemployment rises.  The U.S. economy added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in June, with 213,000 positions created versus analysts' expectations for 195,000.  The unemployment rate moved higher, off an 18-year low, to 4% from May's 3.8%. Economists say the slight move higher is a positive as it reflects more workers entering the workforce after sitting on the sidelines, drawn by the plethora of jobs.  In June, 601,000 Americans entered the labor force, and not all found jobs.

The Editor says...
This is because so many people abandoned the prospect of finding a job while Obama was president, and the workforce participation rate dropped like a stone.  Now that some of those workers are re-entering the job market, it's inevitable that some won't be able to find a job immediately.

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall.  U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May as consumers bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods even as they paid more for gasoline, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly.  Weekly jobless claims continue to fall as the labor market flourishes.  Last week's fall was unexpected as 1,000 fewer Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits than the week before even though economists had predicted an increase.

U.S. Economy Adds 223,000 Jobs In May.  The U.S. added 223,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent, according to Labor Department figures published on Friday [6/1/2018].  Economists forecasted 190,000 additional nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9 percent.  Manufacturing performed strongly, adding 18,000 jobs.  Construction grew by 25,000 new positions.  The Mining sector expanded by 6,000.  Service providers added 171,000 jobs, with an increase in retail of 31,100.

May jobs report surprises to the upside.  The U.S. added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in May — with the Labor Department reporting that 223,000 jobs were added, more than the 188,000 jobs analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting.  Job creation was also above the average 190,000 jobs created each month after the past year.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from April's 3.9%.  The unemployment rate is now at an 18-year low.

April was best month in history for U.S. budget, according to CBO figures.  The federal government took in a record tax haul in April en route to its biggest-ever monthly budget surplus, the Congressional Budget Office said, as a surging economy left Americans with more money in their paychecks — and this more to pay to Uncle Sam.  All told the government collected $515 billion and spent $297 billion, for a total monthly surplus of $218 billion.  That swamped the previous monthly record of $190 billion, set in 2001.  CBO analysts were surprised by the surplus, which was some $40 billion more than they'd guessed at less than a month ago.

Unemployment Falls to Lowest Rate Since 2000 Despite Smaller than Expected Jobs Gains in April.  The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in April and unemployment ticked down to 3.9 percent, the lowest since before the bursting of the tech bubble at the end of the last century.  Economists had forecast nonfarm payrolls to grow by 192,000 and unemployment to tick down from 4.1 percent to 4.0 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.  The unemployment rate had been stuck at 4.1 percent for sixth months.

Nonfarm payrolls increase by 103,000 in March, vs 193,000 jobs expected.  Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in March while the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, falling well short of Wall Street expectations during a month where weather caused havoc on the jobs market, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday.  Economists had been expecting a payrolls gain of 193,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent.  The monthly reading was a huge slip from the 326,000 reported in February.

The Editor says...
Wait a couple of weeks for the "revised" numbers to come out.

U.S. economy adds 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations.  In February, nonfarm payrolls grew by 313,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Over the last three months, job gains have now averaged 242,000 per month.  February's payrolls gain was the largest since July 2016.  February marks the fifth-straight month the unemployment rate has been at 4.1%, which is the lowest level since December 2000.  Economists had expected the report to show nonfarm payrolls grew by 205,000 during the second month of the year with the unemployment rate falling to 4%.

Dow jumps 441 points, Nasdaq hits record as February job growth blows past estimates.  Stocks posted sharp gains Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a record high, as investors reacted to stronger February job growth than expected.

Non-farm payrolls increase by 313,000 in February vs. 200,000 est.  The economy added 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent, according to a Labor Department report Friday [3/9/2018] that could help quell inflation fears.  Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting nonfarm payroll growth of 200,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent.  An increase in the labor force participation rate to its highest level since September helped keep the headline unemployment number steady, as the number of those counted as not in the workforce tumbled by 653,000 to just over 95 million.

Private-sector jobs grow by 235,000 in February, vs 195,000 expected:  ADP/Moody's Analytics.  Job creation saw another powerful month in February, with companies adding 235,000 positions, ADP and Moody's Analytics reported Wednesday [2/7/2018].  The total again defied Wall Street expectations, as economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting payrolls to grow by 195,000.  Growth actually decelerated slightly, as January posted an upwardly revised 244,000 from the initially reported 234,000.

Economy Adds 200,000 Jobs in January, Beating Expectations.  Nonfarm payrolls rose by 2oo,000 in January while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [2/2/2018].  Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to grow by 180,000.

Atlanta Fed Sees GDP Rocketing to 5.4% in First Quarter.  The American economy is on track to grow at a 5.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Monday [1/29/2018].  The regional Fed's forecast rose from last week's 4.2 percent growth following a report on manufacturing that showed more expansion than expected.  The forecast of real consumer spending growth rose from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent, while the forecast of investment growth soared from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.

Has Anyone Noticed That Trump's Economy Keeps Beating Expectations?  The number of people filing for unemployment benefits last week came in "unexpectedly" low.  Instead of 240,000 claims, there were 236,000, which marked the third week in a row this number has dropped.  That's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.  It's just one measure, after all, and the differences aren't huge.  Except it adds to a pile of "unexpectedly" good economic reports that have been coming out these days.

Small Business Optimism Beats Forecast, Hiring Strongest Since 1999.  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rose to 105.2, fueled by significant gains in hiring.  The headline number beat the 103.2 consensus forecast.  A seasonally adjusted net 19% said they plan to create new jobs, a gain of 4 points to the highest level since December 1999.  Among the 10 components making up the Small Business Optimism Index, 7 improved, 2 declined and 1 was unchanged.

Now let's look at the unexpectedly bad news under Obama:

Related topic:  Obama's Destruction of America's Economy.

Unemployment Rises To 5 Percent In September; 94,184,000 Out of Labor Force.  The national unemployment rate in September rose to five percent, as the United States economy added only about 156,000 jobs, according to statistics released by the Labor Department on Friday [10/7/2016].  That number is lower than analyst expectations, who predicted a 175,000 boost in jobs.

Job growth in May worst in 5 years.  The unemployment report for May is an absolute disaster.  "Unexpectedly," after economists predicted that 164,000 new jobs would be created, only 38,000 nrew jobs were counted.  While the "official" unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the reason for the drop was familiar:  more people became discouraged about looking for work and dropped out of the labor force entirely.  In fact, that broader measure of joblessness was more than twice the "official" rate:  9.7%.

White House says May jobless report is 'disappointing'.  The White House acknowledged Friday [6/3/2016] that the economy grew at a "disappointingly low" rate in May, blaming a strike by Verizon workers in part for the sluggish performance.  Jason Furman, the top economic adviser to President Obama, said the telecommunications strike and "volatility in monthly data" contributed to job growth that was "considerably below" expectations.  Employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, the lowest gain in five years.

US Retail Sales Fell Unexpectedly In March As Americans Cut Back On Buying Cars.  U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in March as households cut back on purchases of automobiles, further evidence that economic growth stumbled in the first quarter.  The Commerce Department said Wednesday [4/13/2016] that retail sales declined 0.3 percent last month after being unchanged in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1 percent last month.  Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services ticked up 0.1 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February.

Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department said on Thursday [4/2/2015].

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Four-Month High.  More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating companies let go of seasonal workers following the holidays.  Jobless claims climbed by 19,000 to 316,000 in the week ended Jan. 10, the most since early September, from a revised 297,000 in the prior period, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.  The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 290,000.

Thanks, Obama! 1st Quarter GDP Was Actually a Disastrous -2.9%.  So basically it was three times as bad as first reported, but let's all pretend things will improve in the second quarter.  This is all so unexpected.

US economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1.  The first-quarter contraction reported Wednesday [6/25/2014] by the Commerce Department was even more severe than the 1 percent annual decline it had estimated a month ago.

Yellen surprised by jobs report.  In January, the US added just 113,000 new jobs, up from an even more disappointing 75,000 in December.  Both figures were well below economists' forecasts.  Last year, the economy added an average of 194,000 jobs per month.  "I was surprised that the jobs reports in December and January, the pace of job creation, was running under what I had anticipated.  But we have to be very careful not to jump to conclusions in interpreting what those reports mean," she said.

Jobs: The Report, the Spin, and the Fear.  The monthly employment numbers are out and even the New York Times is dismayed.  The economy added 113,000 jobs in January, which was (all together now) unexpectedly short of the 180,000 economists were predicting.

Jobless claims rise more than expected.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday [1/30/2014].  Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Unexpectedly! 4th quarter GDP cratered after Obama reelected.  C'mon now, what did anyone really expect when they re-elected the guy whose ecomomic policy is "destroy America."  The Food Stamp president and his magic unicorns still haven't fixed our economy.  In fact, it's gone into a nosedive.  And it doesn't look like he's in any kind of hurry to change course either.

Dem leader Reid: 'We are in a recovery'.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Thursday said the American economy is "in a recovery" despite the decline in the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).  Reid made the remark after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blamed the White House for the unexpected contraction in the economy.

In the Obama years, bad news has always surprised the media.
Expect the 'Unexpectedly'.  Certainly, a media that wanted to paint a more dire portrait of the economy would have no shortage of material to work with.  There's considerable evidence that America's problems in job creation are much worse than the most widely cited numbers would indicate.

In the age of unexpectedly.  It is, of course, as with all historical periods, difficult to pinpoint exactly when it began.  Perhaps the earliest sign was a Reuters story dated May 19, 2009, which reported that "new U.S. housing starts and permits unexpectedly fell to record lows in April ... denting hopes that stability in the housing market was imminent."

Great Expectations, Disappointing Results.  The media breathlessly report an "unexpectedly" large increase in unemployment applications with inflation rising "faster than expected."  Given the wasteful spending spree we've been on, what do they expect?

What Do You Expect with Obama?  It's funny how the media almost always use the word "unexpectedly" whenever they report this country's state of affairs under the Obama administration.

Obama Double Standard Disease  [is] an affliction that causes the media to ignore, rationalize or trivialize in order to defend, support and advance the tax-the-rich, spread-the-wealth, expand-the-government agenda of President Obama and his party. ... [For example,] When the economy recovered under President George W. Bush, the major news media pronounced it a "jobless recovery."  Now, despite unemployment stalled at 9.7 percent for several months, the same media call it a "surprising" or "unexpected" recovery.

These days, it's best to expect the 'unexpected'.  The national economy is in the tank — unexpectedly.  At least it's "unexpected" by the mainstream media, and professional economists.  After all these months, these pampered pukes remain flummoxed by how clueless their hero Barack Obama has shown himself to be on economic (and other) issues.

The cost of progressivist worship.  Why is it that one government report after another "unexpectedly" bears more bad news about jobs?  Last week, according to Bloomberg, "The number of unemployment claims unexpectedly shot up."  Before that, Reuters reported, "Employers unexpectedly cut jobs."  This "unexpectedly" bit has been going on for quite a while, suggesting that journalists continue to be surprised that President Obama's progressive agenda has failed to revive private-sector job creation.  One might as well say, "Monday unexpectedly will come next week."

For example...
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Unexpectedly Declines.  Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped to a one-year low in September, indicating the biggest part of the economy is being handcuffed by a struggling labor market.

Daffy Ducks.  "In a surprising setback, the nation's unemployment rate climbed to 9.8 percent in November, a seven-month high, as hiring slowed across the economy," the Associated Press reports.  Another surprising setback!

Jobs Don't Matter To the EPA.  The EPA doesn't look at the impact on jobs at all when they issue regulations.  They don't consider jobs to be part of a "detailed economic analysis."  That goes a long way toward explaining why President Obama keeps talking about his "economic recovery" when every week seems to bring fresh "unexpected" news about the shrinking U.S. workforce.

Pro-Obama media always shocked by bad economic news.  Unexpectedly!  As megablogger Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundit, has noted with amusement, the word "unexpectedly" or variants thereon keep cropping up in mainstream media stories about the economy.

Here's an example:
Jobs Data is 'Last Nail in the Coffin' of Economic Recovery.  April's gain was revised downward to 232,000.  The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 9.1 percent in May from 9 percent a month earlier.  Clearly the labor market is in a precarious state.

Obama tunes out, and business goes on hiring strike.  Last week I noted that various forms of the word "unexpected" almost inevitably appeared in news stories about unfavorable economic developments.  You can find them again in stories about Friday's shocking news, that only 54,000 net new jobs were created in the month of May and that unemployment rose to 9.1 percent.  But with news that bad, maybe bad economic numbers will no longer be "unexpected."

Reuters headline: 'New Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise'.  When will bad economic news be "expected?"  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid unexpectedly edged higher last week, stoking fears of a stalled economic recovery even as a separate report showed record U.S. exports in April.

"Unexpectedly bad" ends up being "much worse".  There's little doubt that journalists are getting a bit touchy about using "the U-word," especially since, far more often than not during the past several years, it has meant "unexpectedly bad."  On Tuesday, in the wake of yet another downward slide in consumer confidence after "experts" had predicted improvement, both Bloomberg and the Associated Press let the U-word slip into their initial reports but purged it in later revisions.

U.S. Payrolls Grow at Slowest Pace in 9 Months.  American employers added jobs at the slowest pace in nine months in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent, sending global stocks sliding on concern the world's biggest economy is faltering.

Liberalism: Out of a Job.  Robert Samuelson at the Washington Post provides details of the jobs report.  First of all, few expected the numbers to be this bad.  The job numbers "unexpectedly" fell.  The analysts expected a net gain of 140,000 jobs.  The actual was 18,000 — far below the number needed to keep pace with new entrants.  That was shocking in an of itself.

Completely Expectable 'Unexpectedness'.  Last Friday [7/8/2011], Americans revisited two of the most depressingly recurring themes they have been forced to endure for almost three years.  First, $3 trillion of debt-bloating, economy-killing, spread-the-poverty around Keynesian economics once again proved itself to be a colossal failure.  Second, economists who use the word "unexpected" to describe that which is painfully obvious to everyone else have once again proven they are unrelentingly clueless.  The unemployment rate?  "Unexpectedly" up to 9.2 percent.  Job creation?  18,000, "uber-unexpectedly" below the prediction of 90,000.

Jobless claims rise above expectations.  Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region rebounded in July, but stubbornly high new filings for jobless benefits suggested an expected pick-up in economic growth in the second half of 2011 would be modest.

More unexpectedly bad news:
U.S. Employers Added No New Jobs In August.  Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs last month, down from 117,000 in July.  The unemployment rate stayed, as expected, at 9.1 percent.  The fact that no net new jobs were added in August was yet another dose of bad news for the economy. ... Another disappointing sign was a drop in the average workweek to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours.  Average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent when economists were expecting an increase of 0.2 percent. ... A more accurate portrait of jobless America may be 16 percent to 20 percent, according to some experts.

The Editor says...
This is ABC doubletalk at its finest.  "Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs", but there were zero new jobs, just as they expected.  If that makes sense to you, keep watching ABC News.

Retail Sales Stall on Lack of Job Growth.  Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall.

U.S. Consumer Prices, Jobless Claims Exceed Forecasts.  The cost of living in the U.S. climbed more than forecast and unemployment claims rose, battering the confidence of Americans squeezed by stagnant wages and higher prices of food, housing and energy.

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise to Highest Level Since June.  Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since the end of June, underscoring the risk of further weakness in the labor market.  Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 that included the Labor Day holiday, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington.

We're Sinking Under Obama's Policies.  Hardly a day goes by without some bit of bad news the media calls "unexpected."  But investors have noticed.

Chevy Volt sales don't have expected spark.  General Motors insists it will sell 10,000 Chevrolet Volts in the U.S. by the end of this year, but as of now, the numbers don't look good.

What Does 99 Weeks of Unemployment Buy?  Every Thursday, the financial markets wait with bated breath for the weekly jobless claims report.  The pundits claim any number below 400,000 is reason for optimism. ... In addition to the magical Thursday number are the always expected words "revised from an initial estimate."  Somehow, the BLS always understates the initial number and then always revises it upward.  Is it even statistically possible to have that happen week after week after week?

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise in Holiday-Shortened Week.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits during the holiday-shortened week, signaling limited recovery in the labor market.  Jobless claims climbed by 6,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Nov. 26 that included the Thanksgiving holiday, Labor Department figures showed today [12/1/2011] in Washington.

Nearly 1 Million Workers Vanished Under Obama.  Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 24,000 last week to 399,000 as more workers lost their jobs, the Labor Department said Thursday [1/12/2012].  At the same time, the economy continues to lose workers.  In the 30 months since the recession officially ended, nearly 1 million people have dropped out of the labor force — they aren't working, and they aren't looking — according to data from Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.  In the past two months, the labor force shrank by 170,000.
[Emphasis added.]

GM laying off 1300 due to low Volt sales.  General Motors Co. announced the temporary suspension of Chevrolet Volt production and the layoffs of 1300 employees, as the company is cutting Volt manufacturing to meet lower-than-expected demand for the electric cars.

US Adds 120,000 Jobs; Unemployment Falls to 8.2%.  Employers added 120,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the smallest increase since October.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm employment to increase 203,000 and the unemployment rate [cnbc explains] to hold at 8.3 percent.

More Americans Than Projected Filed Jobless Claims Last Week.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week and consumer confidence declined by the most in a year, signaling that a cooling labor market may restrain household spending.  Jobless claims fell to 388,000 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures showed today [4/26/2012] in Washington.  The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 35.8 from minus 31.4 the previous week.

Economy in U.S. Expands at 2.2% Annual Rate, Less Than Forecast.  The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the first quarter as a smaller contribution from inventories overshadowed the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than a year.  Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate, Commerce Department figures showed today [4/27/2012] in Washington.

Sitting Out Obama.  We recently saw lots of sit-down strikes and demonstrations — the various efforts in Wisconsin, the Occupy movements, and student efforts to oppose tuition hikes.  None of them mattered much or changed anything.  There is a sit-down strike, however, that has paralyzed the country and has been largely ignored by the media.  Most economists since 2009 have been completely wrong in their forecasts, reminding us that their supposedly data-driven discipline is more an art than a science.

Private Sector Adds Just 119,000 Jobs in April: ADP.  Private-sector employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP that puts a dent into the notion that the jobs market is on the path to a solid recovery.  The report was well below forecasts of 170,000 and comes after a string of stronger numbers.

Job news bad for Obama.  A 25 percent drop in the number of jobs added nationwide from March to April could spell trouble for President Barack Obama's re-election hopes as the economy now struggles to recover at a slower-than-expected pace, local experts said yesterday [5/4/2012].

Obama's weakly job numbers.  The Labor Department reported Thursday [4/26/2012] that initial unemployment claims for the previous week had fallen by 1,000.  This was the sixth reported decline in the last eight weeks.  The overall impression is that the situation is improving, slowly but surely.  Over that same period, however, the actual number of new jobless per week has increased by almost 40,000.  The Obama administration is managing perceptions by revising the weekly numbers upward after the fact.  Every week for at least the last eight weeks, the initial jobless number has been raised after it was released, sometimes significantly.  So while the combined initial figures over that period show a 13,000 new jobless decline, this is only because 49,000 jobless were not included in the initial reports.

The Obama Jobs Disaster Worsens.  April's payroll job creation news was even worse than expected, as hiring slowed to only 115,000 jobs, well below the consensus expectation.  This marks the third consecutive year in which hiring has collapsed in the spring after showing some signs of life in the winter.  Interestingly, not all news outlets are willing to continue covering for the Obama administration.

The awful April jobs report.  Any way you slice or dice it, the April jobs report was terrible — and terribly disappointing.  Employers added just 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, way below the 180,000 Wall Street economists were expecting.

Jobs report a trainwreck.  The U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, well below expectations of 150,000 job gains, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Not only did BLS report terrible numbers for May, but it made downward revisions to previous months job growth numbers, which were already considered weak.

A No Confidence Vote For Obamanomics.  Analysts had predicted the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would climb to 70 in May.  Instead it dropped more than four points to 64.9, the biggest drop since last fall.  It's the latest in another round of disappointing numbers.  Just a few weeks ago, new jobs came in "unexpectedly" low.  And before that, GDP data disappointed.  Underperforming economic indicators have been so common under Obama that the only mystery is why the experts keep getting caught off guard.

Does Anyone Still Like Obama?  In another blow to Obama's reelection bid, consumer confidence, which has been low throughout Obama's presidency, stumbled badly last month after economists initially predicted confidence would go up.

Message from the flight deck.  [Scroll down]  Well, last Friday [6/1/2012] the cockpit warning lights for our economy lit up.  The Labor Department reported that the number of jobs produced in May was a dismal 69,000 — well below predictions.  Additionally, the job creation numbers for March and April were revised significantly downward and, overall, the unemployment rate edged up from 8.1% to 8.2%.

Jobless claims on the rise.  The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits climbed last week, indicating continued trouble for the labor market.  The Labor Department reported Thursday that 386,000 people filed new jobless claims in the week ended June 9, up 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure.  That was 11,000 more than expected.

More Americans Than Forecast File for Jobless Benefits.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the labor market continues to struggle.

Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction.  All 70 economists polled by Bloomberg came in on the high side.  Collapses are never expected.

June Jobs Report Unexpectedly Worse Than Lowered Expectations.  The experts who constantly guess wrong thought we'd create 90,000 jobs in June.  We created 80,000.  Unemployment rate holds at 8.2%.

Next Month's Job Growth Could Be Even Lower.  The Labor Department released jobs numbers for June today [6/8/2012] and the results were disappointing.  Estimates were that non-farm payroll would add around 100K jobs last month.  Instead they added just 80K, which is just over half the number needed to keep up with population growth.

U.S. Corn-Crop Forecast Cut as Drought Dims Supply Outlook.  The U.S. cut its corn-harvest estimate 12 percent and said inventories next year will be smaller than forecast in June as the worst Midwest drought since 1988 erodes prospects for a record crop.  Farmers will harvest 12.97 billion bushels (329.45 million metric tons), down from a June prediction of 14.79 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report.  Analysts expected 13.534 billion, based on the average of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

U.S. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Shrinks for Second Month.  American manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in July for a second month, reflecting a drop in orders that threatens to undercut a mainstay of the recovery.  The Institute for Supply Management's factory index was 49.8 last month, little changed from a three-year low of 49.7 reached in June, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today [8/1/2012].  Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a reading of 50.2, according to the median estimate, just above the 50 mark that separates expansions and contractions.

Jobless claims hold steady.  The number of people filing for their first week of unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, following three straight weeks of increases, the government said Thursday [8/30/2012].  The Labor Department said 374,000 people filed first-time jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 25.  That was slightly more than the forecasts of economists surveyed by  The previous week's reading was raised from the initially reported 372,000.

Weak jobs report fuels QE3 hopes.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% from 8.3%, but only as a result of a significant drop in the number of people looking for jobs.  Economists were expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.3%.

August Jobs Miss Expectations: 96k Jobs Added, Rate at 8.1%.  The Department of Labor released its initial report on August non-farm payrolls this morning [9/7/2012].  Job growth in August was a sub-par 96k jobs created.  The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% though, as more people left the workforce.  Consensus on Wall Street had been for a 125,000 increase in the number of jobs last month.  That number is slightly below the number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth.

Weekly Jobless Claims Jump.  The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, with several states reporting an increase related to Tropical Storm Isaac.

Jobless claims rise more than expected.  Initial claims for unemployment benefit rose more than expected last week, hitting 382,000 compared with a forecast of 370,000 in a Reuters poll and up from 367,000 the previous week.

Jobless Claims to U.S. Leading Index Add to Weakness.  More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits and an index of leading indicators declined for second time in three months, adding to signs of weakness in the world's largest economy.  Jobless claims decreased by 3,000 in the week ended Sept. 15 to 382,000, Labor Department figures showed today [9/20/2012] in Washington.  The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 375,000.  The New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months fell 0.1 percent after a 0.5 percent increase in July.

Durable goods drop worst since recession.  The Commerce Department said on Thursday [9/27/2012] durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession.  Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported 4.1 percent gain.

Business Activity in U.S. Shrinks for First Time Since 2009.  Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in September for the first time in three years, adding to signs manufacturing will contribute less to the economic recovery.

Jobless Claims Hit Four-Month High.  For the third straight week, the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits rose.  Thursday's [4/4/2013] increase was quite dramatic.  Though economists expected new claims to fall to 350,000, claims actually rose to 385,000 — the highest number since November.  The four-week rolling average also increased to 354,250.

Hiring in U.S. Tapers Off as Economy Fails to Gain Speed.  American employers increased their payrolls by 88,000 last month, compared with 268,000 in February, according to a Labor Department report released Friday [4/5/2013].  It was the slowest pace of growth since last June, and less than half of what economists had expected.

The 'New' Economy Takes Shape.  It is amazing just how wrong economists were in their predictions for the number of jobs that were to be created in March.  The "consensus" figure was 200,000 — a far cry from the actual number created which was 88,000.  Totally "unexpected," as usual.

Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery.  The unexpectedly large number of American workers who piled into the Social Security Administration's disability program during the recession and its aftermath threatens to cost the economy tens of billions a year in lost wages and diminished tax revenues.

Economist: Weaker-Than-Expected GDP Might Fuel Slow-Growth Fears.  The economy regained speed in the first quarter, but not as much as expected, heightening fears it could struggle to cope with deep government spending cuts and higher taxes.  Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, after growth nearly stalled in the fourth quarter.  Economists had expected a 3.0 percent growth pace.

Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery.  Anyone hoping for signs of a healthy economic recovery was disappointed by lower-than-expected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2013 — a mere 2.5%, far short of the forecast 3.2%.

GDP grows 1.8% in Q1, below estimates.  The economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the government reported Wednesday [6/26/2013], well below previous estimates of 2.4% growth and missing forecasts.

U.S. Economy Adds 195,000 Jobs in June.  The U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and more than May's figure, perhaps alleviating some concerns that the labor market is stuck in neutral and not contributing enough to the economic recovery.  The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%.  Economists had predicted an increase of 165,000 jobs and that the rate would drop to 7.5% from a month earlier.

Economy added a disappointing 162,000 jobs in July.  July was supposed to mark the starting point for an amped-up economy.  Instead, data on Friday [8/2/2013] showed the recovery remains stuck in second gear.  The Labor Department said that the economy added 162,000 jobs in July — enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 7.4 percent, but short of analysts' expectations.

Canadian Job Creation Triples Forecasts in August.  Canadian employment rose faster than economists forecast in August, gaining for the first time in three months led by part-time work and service industries. [...] Canada's dollar jumped as the gain contrasted with a U.S. report that showed payrolls rose by less than was forecast.

2013 ends with weakest job growth in years.  The job market suddenly looks a lot weaker than economists' had thought. Hiring slumped sharply in December, as the economy added only 74,000 jobs, according to the government.  This was the weakest month for job growth since January 2011 and came as a huge surprise to economists, who were expecting an addition of 193,000 jobs.

All Your Health Are Belong to Us.  "Expect the unexpected" has been good advice for anyone following American economic news since 2009.  That news has usually been bad, and almost always "unexpectedly" so. [...] A cynical observer might suggest that there is an element of deliberate spin involved, with reporters hoping to keep readers' expectations afloat until next month's report.

Warmer Temperatures Lift US Economy.  Economists had expected growth to accelerate in 2014 after two years of slow and steady improvement.  But an unusually bitter winter sent factories, hiring and consumer spending into hibernation.

'Recovering' U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks by 1 Percent.  We know that... err... certain things shrink on contact with the cold, and the winter is among the factors being blamed for an unexpected 1 percent contraction in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  After healthy growth in the fourth quarter of 2013, a slight slowdown was expected at the beginning of 2014, but the downturn caught economists by surprise.  The last economic contraction was during the first quarter of 2011.

More Americans than forecast file jobless claims.  The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to a two-month high, interrupting a steady decrease to the lowest level since before the last recession.  Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 315,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, which included the Labor Day holiday, a Labor Department report showed Thursday [9/11/2014].  It was the highest reading since June 28 and exceeded the Bloomberg survey median forecast of 300,000.  The data are difficult to adjust during holiday periods, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released.

Jobless claims surge to 11-week high.  The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits in the week before Thanksgiving jumped to an 11-week high and topped the 300,000 mark for the first time since early September, fresh government data showed Wednesday [11/26/2014].  Initial jobless claims leaped by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the Labor Department said.  Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast claims to total a seasonally adjusted 288,000.

Hiring surges as U.S. unemployment stays steady at 5.8 percent.  The U.S. economy added a whopping 321,000 jobs in November — far more than analysts had expected — although the national jobless rate remained stuck at 5.8 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [12/5/2014].  The November number of new jobs was nearly 50 percent higher than the consensus economist forecast, and sparked an early rally on world stock markets.  The Labor Department also revised September's report up by 15,000 to 271,000 jobs, and revised October up by 29,000 jobs to 243,000.

U.S. Adds 142,00 Jobs in September, Badly Missing Expectations.  The U.S. added 142,000 new jobs in September, a disappointing figure that fell well below expectations. [...] The headline unemployment rate held steady 5.1%, according to figures released by the U.S. Labor Department, but the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 62.4% from the prior month, another ominous sign that usually suggests discouraged job seekers are no longer even looking for work.  Economists had forecast 203,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate would remain at 5.1%.

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Updated September 22, 2020.

©2020 by Andrew K. Dart