The Unexpected

Synopsis by The Editor:
Under President Obama, bad news about the economy was always unexpected.  Under President Trump, good news is always unexpected.

Are Experts Who Are Always Wrong Really "Experts" At All?  Why are all the "experts" always so [very] shocked by the jobs reports?  So, the U.S. economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, shocking all the eminent high muckety-muck economists, who predicted from their high towers that the number would be more like 180,000.  Of course, it wasn't just these mysterious "expert" economists who were flummoxed by the wonderful report — the fake news media that has been doing its best to tank the U.S. economy since January 20, 2017 was also in a state of shock about it all.  Here's a sampling of the headlines this morning: [...] The hilarious thing about this is that all these same "experts" were also shocked at every jobs report during the Obama years, but they were invariably shocked because the actual numbers were so low when compared to their pie-in-the-sky expectations.

U.S. Job Growth Surged in December With 312,000 Payrolls Added.  U.S. employers added the most workers in 10 months as wage gains accelerated and labor-force participation jumped, reflecting a robust job market that nevertheless faces mounting risks in 2019.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 312,000 in December, easily topping all forecasts, after an upwardly revised 176,000 gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed Friday [1/4/2019].  Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% from a year earlier, more than projected and matching the fastest pace since 2009.  Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose from a five-decade low to 3.9%, reflecting more people actively seeking work.

312,000 Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning, showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than analysts expected.  The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain.  With the December jobs number, President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.

Hiring surged in December, employers added 312,000 jobs.  US employers added 312,000 jobs in December, well above what economists expected and underlining that the American economy remains strong despite recent market turbulence.  The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as more people were looking for work.  It had been at a 50-year low of 3.7% for two of the last three months.  Employers added 2.6 million jobs in 2018, compared to 2.2 million in 2017.  Revisions to the October and November estimates added an additional 58,000 jobs to the 2018 total.

The Editor says...
Notice the quietly revised numbers from previous months.

December Jobs Report Smashed Expectations With 312,000 Jobs.  Economists predicted we'd only see around 176,000 new jobs in December 2018, but the jobs report showed employers added 312,000 jobs instead.  2018 also went out with a bang by averaging 220,000 new jobs every month, which is the best average since 2015.  Unemployment rate went from 3.7% to 3.9%, but that's because labor force participation increased to 63.1%.

Jobs Report Blows Away All Expectations!  The jobs numbers released Friday [1/4/2019] exceeded expectations of economists and are through the roof!  The economy is soaring despite the Democrats efforts to damage it.  How will they spin this?  U.S. jobs increased by 312,000, far better than the predicted 176,000 jobs.  That's nearly double the amount expected!  Wages also grew 3.2% year-over-year vs. an estimated 3%.

Too high or too low.  Why are the expectations always wrong?
Job growth falls short of expectations in November: 155,000 payrolls created vs 198,000 estimate.  Job growth slowed in November amid fears that economic growth is losing steam.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 for the month while the unemployment rate again held at 3.7 percent, its lowest since 1969, the Labor Department reported Friday.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of 198,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady.  Average hourly earnings, a closely watched sign of whether inflation pressures are building, again rose at a 3.1 percent pace from a year ago.  The monthly earnings gain of 0.2 percent fell short of estimates for a 0.3 percent increase.  The average work week edged lower by 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.

The US economy added better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October.  The US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding expectations, the government announced Friday [11/2/2018].  The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, a 49-year low.  Hispanic unemployment reached its lowest rate ever, at 4.4%.  Wages grew 3.1%, relatively robust growth after years of stagnant paychecks.

Wages up 3.1 per cent, 250,000 new jobs and 50-year low unemployment.  U.S. employers added a stellar 250,000 jobs last month and raised average pay by the most in nearly a decade — in a dose of good news for President Trump as he barnstorms the country to try to preserve unified Republican control of national power.  The Labor Department's monthly jobs report, the last major economic data before Tuesday's congressional elections, also showed that the unemployment rate remained at a five-decade low of 3.7 percent.  On a key metric that affects voters, average hourly earnings also increased.  They rose by 0.2 percent from September, an annualized gain of 3.1 percent.  And unemployment remained at a 48 year low.

The Economy Created 250,000 Jobs in October, Wages Rise More Than 3% for First Time Since Recession.  The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, according to Labor Department figures released Friday [11/2/2018].  Economists had predicted the economy would add 190,000 jobs and the unemployment rate would to hold steady at 3.7 percent, the lowest level of joblessness in 49-years.  Friday's data shows that hiring bounced back after an unusually weak September when employers added just 118,000 jobs — the smallest monthly increase in a year.  Over the past 12 months, employers added an average of 211,000 jobs each month.

ADP September Payrolls Grew by 230,000 in September.  Hold on to your MAGA caps there's a winner wonderland ahead.  According to the latest ADP private payroll release today [10/3/2018], private sector payrolls grew by a stunning 230,000 jobs in September.  [They were anticipating 185k]  Massive jobs gains amid small, medium and large sized companies.  This comes on the heels of the latest stats on paychecks which show *average* wage gains around 2.6% over last year.  Key word "average".  There are multiple job sectors with wage increases of four to seven percent; well above the rate of consumer price inflation.

America's GDP advances by 4.2% in 2Q.  America's economy extended its strong momentum in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at a 4.2 percent rate, according to the final revision.  The prior, first revision pegged second-quarter GDP at a 4.2 percent annual rate, above the originally reported 4.1 percent.

Pay No Attention To That 'Unexpected' Good Economic News Over There.  The past week saw more signs that the growing economy is benefiting middle class households, including another jump in household income.  Not that you'd know it from the coverage, which is wall-to-wall Brett Kavanaugh.

Consumer confidence hits 138.4 in September, vs. 132 estimate.  Consumer confidence rose in September, notching its highest level in about 18 years.  The Conference Board's index rose to 138.4 this month from 134.7 in August.  Economists polled by Reuters expected consumer confidence to dip to 132.  "Consumers' assessment of current conditions remains extremely favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth," said said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.  "These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season."  Franco added September's index print is near the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.

The Economy Is Beating The Last Administration's Low Expectations.  Americans are now seeing more jobs, higher wages, and greater investment.  The president of the New York Fed remarked that the economy was neither growing too quickly nor too slowly, describing it as a "Goldilocks economy."  Business optimism has been surging since the last election and the latest National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) survey of small business optimism hit a record high.

Nancy Pelosi Trashes Jobs Report Analysts Call 'Greatest of All Time'.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who would likely become Speaker of the House if Democrats win the midterm elections in November, trashed Friday's [9/7/2018] jobs report — even though Blackrock called it "the greatest of all time."  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 201,000 new jobs in August — more than the 190,000 expected — and unemployment stayed at 3.9%.  Moreover, wages grew 2.9% year-on-year.

US payrolls top growth projections with 201,000 new jobs in August.  The economy gained a better-than-expected 201,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday [9/7/2018].  Economists had predicted 189,000 new jobs, and the report should further solidify the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates amid what officials previously labeled a "strong" U.S. economy.  Experts say job growth should continue into the second half of 2018, fueled partly by last year's tax cuts.

U.S. Wage Gains Pick Up to 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000.  American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.

Higher than Expected Job Growth and Wage Gains in August Signal Economic Strength.  The American economy added 201,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent.  Economists had forecast 191,100 new jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent.  Average hourly earnings increased 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized basis, according to a Department of Labor report released Friday.  That also beat expectations for 2.7 percent wage growth.  In dollar terms, average hourly earnings increased 10 cents from the previous month to $27.16.  Private sector payrolls rose by 204,000.  Mining added 6,000 new jobs.  Construction added 23,000, bringing its total to over 300,000 for the year.

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Plunge to New Post-1969 Record.  Jobless claims fell last week even further to a new post-1969 record of 203,000.  This is the lowest level for initial claims for state unemployment benefits since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000.  The 4-week moving average, considered a better gauge of the labor market because it smooths out week-to-week volatility, fell to 209,500 from 212,250.  This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

There's That Word Again.  Remember during the dark days of the Obungler administration when the Fake News Media always had "unexpected" news about the economy?  Every summer was "recovery summer" but the bad economic news was always "unexpected".  I mean we had the "light bringer", the "almost a god", the Obamessiah in the White House.  What could go wrong?  I had a friend back in St. Louis who voted for Obumbler in 2012 because he "saved us from a depression".  I was shocked when he told me that.  He obviously got his news from the Fake News Media.  I don't believe the myth about the Oblunder recovery.  I maintain that we were in a recession during most of Obongo's term of office.  We were certainly in a jobs recession. [...] Remember, the labor participation during the those disastrous 8 years was very very low.  Under Trump the U6 has been consistently falling and now stands at 7.5%.  Yep!  We are finally in a recovery.  And retail sales are up.  Of course, this was "unexpected".

Economists Think U.S. Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low.  Economists expect the low U.S. unemployment rate to go even lower over the next year, reaching levels not seen in a half-century.  Private-sector economic forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal on average saw the jobless rate — 4% in June after touching 3.8% in May — falling to 3.7% by the end of 2018 and 3.6% by mid-2019.

Nancy Pelosi freaks out over strong jobs report.  The Labor Department announced Friday that June's job report beat expectations.  The U.S. economy added 231,000 new jobs, and over 600,000 new workers entered the workforce as optimism about our nation's future grows.  That's great news to everyone, except House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Jobless claims rise to 231,000, but are still running at historic lows.  New claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose 3,000 to 231,000 to end June, the Department of Labor reported Thursday [7/5/2018], but the report contained good news overall.  The small increase in jobless claims defied forecasters' expectations for claims to drop by 4,000 to 223,000.

Payrolls rise better than expected 213,000 but unemployment rate back at 4%.  The employment part of the economy continued to power forward in June, adding another 213,000 jobs though the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent, according to a government report Friday.  Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a nonfarm payrolls gain of 195,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.8 percent, which had been tied for the lowest since 1969.

Jobs report could signal a 'stampede' back into the workforce.  The better-than-expected June jobs report, which saw the addition of 213,000 new positions to the U.S. economy and an increased labor force participation rate, is evidence of an economy that's returning to work, according to the Council of Economic Advisers chairman.  "What we want to do is reconnect people who were discouraged by the bad economy that President Trump inherited, and we want to bring them back into society and get them back to work," Kevin Hassett said during a FOX Business interview with Charles Payne on Friday.  "It's clear that this is the real message of work, almost the stampede back into the labor department."

Nancy Pelosi Trashes June Jobs Report, Warns of 'Brewing Storm' of Wealth and Opportunity.  Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) trashed the June jobs report — even though it showed rapid job growth, rising wages, and low unemployment.  The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that employers created 213,000 new jobs in June — 22,000 more than economists had expected.  Manufacturing jobs in particular rose by 36,000.  The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.8% to 4.0% — but that was partly because so many people are entering (or re-entering) the labor force.

June jobs growth jumps with 213K jobs added while unemployment rises.  The U.S. economy added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in June, with 213,000 positions created versus analysts' expectations for 195,000.  The unemployment rate moved higher, off an 18-year low, to 4% from May's 3.8%. Economists say the slight move higher is a positive as it reflects more workers entering the workforce after sitting on the sidelines, drawn by the plethora of jobs.  In June, 601,000 Americans entered the labor force, and not all found jobs.

The Editor says...
This is because so many people abandoned the prospect of finding a job while Obama was president, and the workforce participation rate dropped like a stone.  Now that some of those workers are re-entering the job market, it's inevitable that some won't be able to find a job immediately.

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall.  U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May as consumers bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods even as they paid more for gasoline, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly.  Weekly jobless claims continue to fall as the labor market flourishes.  Last week's fall was unexpected as 1,000 fewer Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits than the week before even though economists had predicted an increase.

U.S. Economy Adds 223,000 Jobs In May.  The U.S. added 223,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent, according to Labor Department figures published on Friday [6/1/2018].  Economists forecasted 190,000 additional nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9 percent.  Manufacturing performed strongly, adding 18,000 jobs.  Construction grew by 25,000 new positions.  The Mining sector expanded by 6,000.  Service providers added 171,000 jobs, with an increase in retail of 31,100.

May jobs report surprises to the upside.  The U.S. added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in May — with the Labor Department reporting that 223,000 jobs were added, more than the 188,000 jobs analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting.  Job creation was also above the average 190,000 jobs created each month after the past year.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from April's 3.9%.  The unemployment rate is now at an 18-year low.

April was best month in history for U.S. budget, according to CBO figures.  The federal government took in a record tax haul in April en route to its biggest-ever monthly budget surplus, the Congressional Budget Office said, as a surging economy left Americans with more money in their paychecks — and this more to pay to Uncle Sam.  All told the government collected $515 billion and spent $297 billion, for a total monthly surplus of $218 billion.  That swamped the previous monthly record of $190 billion, set in 2001.  CBO analysts were surprised by the surplus, which was some $40 billion more than they'd guessed at less than a month ago.

Unemployment Falls to Lowest Rate Since 2000 Despite Smaller than Expected Jobs Gains in April.  The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in April and unemployment ticked down to 3.9 percent, the lowest since before the bursting of the tech bubble at the end of the last century.  Economists had forecast nonfarm payrolls to grow by 192,000 and unemployment to tick down from 4.1 percent to 4.0 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.  The unemployment rate had been stuck at 4.1 percent for sixth months.

Nonfarm payrolls increase by 103,000 in March, vs 193,000 jobs expected.  Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in March while the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, falling well short of Wall Street expectations during a month where weather caused havoc on the jobs market, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday.  Economists had been expecting a payrolls gain of 193,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent.  The monthly reading was a huge slip from the 326,000 reported in February.

The Editor says...
Wait a couple of weeks for the "revised" numbers to come out.

U.S. economy adds 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations.  In February, nonfarm payrolls grew by 313,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Over the last three months, job gains have now averaged 242,000 per month.  February's payrolls gain was the largest since July 2016.  February marks the fifth-straight month the unemployment rate has been at 4.1%, which is the lowest level since December 2000.  Economists had expected the report to show nonfarm payrolls grew by 205,000 during the second month of the year with the unemployment rate falling to 4%.

Dow jumps 441 points, Nasdaq hits record as February job growth blows past estimates.  Stocks posted sharp gains Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a record high, as investors reacted to stronger February job growth than expected.

Non-farm payrolls increase by 313,000 in February vs. 200,000 est.  The economy added 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent, according to a Labor Department report Friday [3/9/2018] that could help quell inflation fears.  Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting nonfarm payroll growth of 200,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent.  An increase in the labor force participation rate to its highest level since September helped keep the headline unemployment number steady, as the number of those counted as not in the workforce tumbled by 653,000 to just over 95 million.

Private-sector jobs grow by 235,000 in February, vs 195,000 expected:  ADP/Moody's Analytics.  Job creation saw another powerful month in February, with companies adding 235,000 positions, ADP and Moody's Analytics reported Wednesday [2/7/2018].  The total again defied Wall Street expectations, as economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting payrolls to grow by 195,000.  Growth actually decelerated slightly, as January posted an upwardly revised 244,000 from the initially reported 234,000.

Economy Adds 200,000 Jobs in January, Beating Expectations.  Nonfarm payrolls rose by 2oo,000 in January while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [2/2/2018].  Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to grow by 180,000.

Atlanta Fed Sees GDP Rocketing to 5.4% in First Quarter.  The American economy is on track to grow at a 5.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Monday [1/29/2018].  The regional Fed's forecast rose from last week's 4.2 percent growth following a report on manufacturing that showed more expansion than expected.  The forecast of real consumer spending growth rose from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent, while the forecast of investment growth soared from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.

Has Anyone Noticed That Trump's Economy Keeps Beating Expectations?  The number of people filing for unemployment benefits last week came in "unexpectedly" low.  Instead of 240,000 claims, there were 236,000, which marked the third week in a row this number has dropped.  That's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.  It's just one measure, after all, and the differences aren't huge.  Except it adds to a pile of "unexpectedly" good economic reports that have been coming out these days.

Small Business Optimism Beats Forecast, Hiring Strongest Since 1999.  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rose to 105.2, fueled by significant gains in hiring.  The headline number beat the 103.2 consensus forecast.  A seasonally adjusted net 19% said they plan to create new jobs, a gain of 4 points to the highest level since December 1999.  Among the 10 components making up the Small Business Optimism Index, 7 improved, 2 declined and 1 was unchanged.

Now let's look at the unexpectedly bad news under Obama:

Unemployment Rises To 5 Percent In September; 94,184,000 Out of Labor Force.  The national unemployment rate in September rose to five percent, as the United States economy added only about 156,000 jobs, according to statistics released by the Labor Department on Friday [10/7/2016].  That number is lower than analyst expectations, who predicted a 175,000 boost in jobs.

Job growth in May worst in 5 years.  The unemployment report for May is an absolute disaster.  "Unexpectedly," after economists predicted that 164,000 new jobs would be created, only 38,000 nrew jobs were counted.  While the "official" unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the reason for the drop was familiar:  more people became discouraged about looking for work and dropped out of the labor force entirely.  In fact, that broader measure of joblessness was more than twice the "official" rate:  9.7%.

White House says May jobless report is 'disappointing'.  The White House acknowledged Friday [6/3/2016] that the economy grew at a "disappointingly low" rate in May, blaming a strike by Verizon workers in part for the sluggish performance.  Jason Furman, the top economic adviser to President Obama, said the telecommunications strike and "volatility in monthly data" contributed to job growth that was "considerably below" expectations.  Employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, the lowest gain in five years.

US Retail Sales Fell Unexpectedly In March As Americans Cut Back On Buying Cars.  U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in March as households cut back on purchases of automobiles, further evidence that economic growth stumbled in the first quarter.  The Commerce Department said Wednesday [4/13/2016] that retail sales declined 0.3 percent last month after being unchanged in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1 percent last month.  Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services ticked up 0.1 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February.

Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department said on Thursday [4/2/2015].

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Four-Month High.  More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating companies let go of seasonal workers following the holidays.  Jobless claims climbed by 19,000 to 316,000 in the week ended Jan. 10, the most since early September, from a revised 297,000 in the prior period, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.  The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 290,000.

Thanks, Obama! 1st Quarter GDP Was Actually a Disastrous -2.9%.  So basically it was three times as bad as first reported, but let's all pretend things will improve in the second quarter.  This is all so unexpected.

US economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1.  The first-quarter contraction reported Wednesday [6/25/2014] by the Commerce Department was even more severe than the 1 percent annual decline it had estimated a month ago.

Yellen surprised by jobs report.  In January, the US added just 113,000 new jobs, up from an even more disappointing 75,000 in December.  Both figures were well below economists' forecasts.  Last year, the economy added an average of 194,000 jobs per month.  "I was surprised that the jobs reports in December and January, the pace of job creation, was running under what I had anticipated.  But we have to be very careful not to jump to conclusions in interpreting what those reports mean," she said.

Jobs: The Report, the Spin, and the Fear.  The monthly employment numbers are out and even the New York Times is dismayed.  The economy added 113,000 jobs in January, which was (all together now) unexpectedly short of the 180,000 economists were predicting.

Jobless claims rise more than expected.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday [1/30/2014].  Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Unexpectedly! 4th quarter GDP cratered after Obama reelected.  C'mon now, what did anyone really expect when they re-elected the guy whose ecomomic policy is "destroy America."  The Food Stamp president and his magic unicorns still haven't fixed our economy.  In fact, it's gone into a nosedive.  And it doesn't look like he's in any kind of hurry to change course either.

Dem leader Reid: 'We are in a recovery'.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Thursday said the American economy is "in a recovery" despite the decline in the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).  Reid made the remark after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blamed the White House for the unexpected contraction in the economy.

In the Obama years, bad news has always surprised the media.
Expect the 'Unexpectedly'.  Certainly, a media that wanted to paint a more dire portrait of the economy would have no shortage of material to work with.  There's considerable evidence that America's problems in job creation are much worse than the most widely cited numbers would indicate.

In the age of unexpectedly.  It is, of course, as with all historical periods, difficult to pinpoint exactly when it began.  Perhaps the earliest sign was a Reuters story dated May 19, 2009, which reported that "new U.S. housing starts and permits unexpectedly fell to record lows in April ... denting hopes that stability in the housing market was imminent."

Great Expectations, Disappointing Results.  The media breathlessly report an "unexpectedly" large increase in unemployment applications with inflation rising "faster than expected."  Given the wasteful spending spree we've been on, what do they expect?

What Do You Expect with Obama?  It's funny how the media almost always use the word "unexpectedly" whenever they report this country's state of affairs under the Obama administration.

Obama Double Standard Disease  [is] an affliction that causes the media to ignore, rationalize or trivialize in order to defend, support and advance the tax-the-rich, spread-the-wealth, expand-the-government agenda of President Obama and his party. ... [For example,] When the economy recovered under President George W. Bush, the major news media pronounced it a "jobless recovery."  Now, despite unemployment stalled at 9.7 percent for several months, the same media call it a "surprising" or "unexpected" recovery.

These days, it's best to expect the 'unexpected'.  The national economy is in the tank — unexpectedly.  At least it's "unexpected" by the mainstream media, and professional economists.  After all these months, these pampered pukes remain flummoxed by how clueless their hero Barack Obama has shown himself to be on economic (and other) issues.

The cost of progressivist worship.  Why is it that one government report after another "unexpectedly" bears more bad news about jobs?  Last week, according to Bloomberg, "The number of unemployment claims unexpectedly shot up."  Before that, Reuters reported, "Employers unexpectedly cut jobs."  This "unexpectedly" bit has been going on for quite a while, suggesting that journalists continue to be surprised that President Obama's progressive agenda has failed to revive private-sector job creation.  One might as well say, "Monday unexpectedly will come next week."

For example...
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Unexpectedly Declines.  Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped to a one-year low in September, indicating the biggest part of the economy is being handcuffed by a struggling labor market.

Daffy Ducks.  "In a surprising setback, the nation's unemployment rate climbed to 9.8 percent in November, a seven-month high, as hiring slowed across the economy," the Associated Press reports.  Another surprising setback!

Jobs Don't Matter To the EPA.  The EPA doesn't look at the impact on jobs at all when they issue regulations.  They don't consider jobs to be part of a "detailed economic analysis."  That goes a long way toward explaining why President Obama keeps talking about his "economic recovery" when every week seems to bring fresh "unexpected" news about the shrinking U.S. workforce.

Pro-Obama media always shocked by bad economic news.  Unexpectedly!  As megablogger Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundit, has noted with amusement, the word "unexpectedly" or variants thereon keep cropping up in mainstream media stories about the economy.

Here's an example:
Jobs Data is 'Last Nail in the Coffin' of Economic Recovery.  April's gain was revised downward to 232,000.  The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 9.1 percent in May from 9 percent a month earlier.  Clearly the labor market is in a precarious state.

Obama tunes out, and business goes on hiring strike.  Last week I noted that various forms of the word "unexpected" almost inevitably appeared in news stories about unfavorable economic developments.  You can find them again in stories about Friday's shocking news, that only 54,000 net new jobs were created in the month of May and that unemployment rose to 9.1 percent.  But with news that bad, maybe bad economic numbers will no longer be "unexpected."

Reuters headline: 'New Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise'.  When will bad economic news be "expected?"  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid unexpectedly edged higher last week, stoking fears of a stalled economic recovery even as a separate report showed record U.S. exports in April.

"Unexpectedly bad" ends up being "much worse".  There's little doubt that journalists are getting a bit touchy about using "the U-word," especially since, far more often than not during the past several years, it has meant "unexpectedly bad."  On Tuesday, in the wake of yet another downward slide in consumer confidence after "experts" had predicted improvement, both Bloomberg and the Associated Press let the U-word slip into their initial reports but purged it in later revisions.

U.S. Payrolls Grow at Slowest Pace in 9 Months.  American employers added jobs at the slowest pace in nine months in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent, sending global stocks sliding on concern the world's biggest economy is faltering.

Liberalism: Out of a Job.  Robert Samuelson at the Washington Post provides details of the jobs report.  First of all, few expected the numbers to be this bad.  The job numbers "unexpectedly" fell.  The analysts expected a net gain of 140,000 jobs.  The actual was 18,000 — far below the number needed to keep pace with new entrants.  That was shocking in an of itself.

Completely Expectable 'Unexpectedness'.  Last Friday [7/8/2011], Americans revisited two of the most depressingly recurring themes they have been forced to endure for almost three years.  First, $3 trillion of debt-bloating, economy-killing, spread-the-poverty around Keynesian economics once again proved itself to be a colossal failure.  Second, economists who use the word "unexpected" to describe that which is painfully obvious to everyone else have once again proven they are unrelentingly clueless.  The unemployment rate?  "Unexpectedly" up to 9.2 percent.  Job creation?  18,000, "uber-unexpectedly" below the prediction of 90,000.

Jobless claims rise above expectations.  Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region rebounded in July, but stubbornly high new filings for jobless benefits suggested an expected pick-up in economic growth in the second half of 2011 would be modest.

More unexpectedly bad news:
U.S. Employers Added No New Jobs In August.  Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs last month, down from 117,000 in July.  The unemployment rate stayed, as expected, at 9.1 percent.  The fact that no net new jobs were added in August was yet another dose of bad news for the economy. ... Another disappointing sign was a drop in the average workweek to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours.  Average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent when economists were expecting an increase of 0.2 percent. ... A more accurate portrait of jobless America may be 16 percent to 20 percent, according to some experts.

The Editor says...
This is ABC doubletalk at its finest.  "Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs", but there were zero new jobs, just as they expected.  If that makes sense to you, keep watching ABC News.

Retail Sales Stall on Lack of Job Growth.  Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall.

U.S. Consumer Prices, Jobless Claims Exceed Forecasts.  The cost of living in the U.S. climbed more than forecast and unemployment claims rose, battering the confidence of Americans squeezed by stagnant wages and higher prices of food, housing and energy.

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise to Highest Level Since June.  Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since the end of June, underscoring the risk of further weakness in the labor market.  Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 that included the Labor Day holiday, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington.

We're Sinking Under Obama's Policies.  Hardly a day goes by without some bit of bad news the media calls "unexpected."  But investors have noticed.

Chevy Volt sales don't have expected spark.  General Motors insists it will sell 10,000 Chevrolet Volts in the U.S. by the end of this year, but as of now, the numbers don't look good.

What Does 99 Weeks of Unemployment Buy?  Every Thursday, the financial markets wait with bated breath for the weekly jobless claims report.  The pundits claim any number below 400,000 is reason for optimism. ... In addition to the magical Thursday number are the always expected words "revised from an initial estimate."  Somehow, the BLS always understates the initial number and then always revises it upward.  Is it even statistically possible to have that happen week after week after week?

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise in Holiday-Shortened Week.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits during the holiday-shortened week, signaling limited recovery in the labor market.  Jobless claims climbed by 6,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Nov. 26 that included the Thanksgiving holiday, Labor Department figures showed today [12/1/2011] in Washington.

Nearly 1 Million Workers Vanished Under Obama.  Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 24,000 last week to 399,000 as more workers lost their jobs, the Labor Department said Thursday [1/12/2012].  At the same time, the economy continues to lose workers.  In the 30 months since the recession officially ended, nearly 1 million people have dropped out of the labor force — they aren't working, and they aren't looking — according to data from Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.  In the past two months, the labor force shrank by 170,000.
[Emphasis added.]

GM laying off 1300 due to low Volt sales.  General Motors Co. announced the temporary suspension of Chevrolet Volt production and the layoffs of 1300 employees, as the company is cutting Volt manufacturing to meet lower-than-expected demand for the electric cars.

US Adds 120,000 Jobs; Unemployment Falls to 8.2%.  Employers added 120,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the smallest increase since October.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm employment to increase 203,000 and the unemployment rate [cnbc explains] to hold at 8.3 percent.

More Americans Than Projected Filed Jobless Claims Last Week.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week and consumer confidence declined by the most in a year, signaling that a cooling labor market may restrain household spending.  Jobless claims fell to 388,000 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures showed today [4/26/2012] in Washington.  The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 35.8 from minus 31.4 the previous week.

Economy in U.S. Expands at 2.2% Annual Rate, Less Than Forecast.  The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the first quarter as a smaller contribution from inventories overshadowed the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than a year.  Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate, Commerce Department figures showed today [4/27/2012] in Washington.

Sitting Out Obama.  We recently saw lots of sit-down strikes and demonstrations — the various efforts in Wisconsin, the Occupy movements, and student efforts to oppose tuition hikes.  None of them mattered much or changed anything.  There is a sit-down strike, however, that has paralyzed the country and has been largely ignored by the media.  Most economists since 2009 have been completely wrong in their forecasts, reminding us that their supposedly data-driven discipline is more an art than a science.

Private Sector Adds Just 119,000 Jobs in April: ADP.  Private-sector employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP that puts a dent into the notion that the jobs market is on the path to a solid recovery.  The report was well below forecasts of 170,000 and comes after a string of stronger numbers.

Job news bad for Obama.  A 25 percent drop in the number of jobs added nationwide from March to April could spell trouble for President Barack Obama's re-election hopes as the economy now struggles to recover at a slower-than-expected pace, local experts said yesterday [5/4/2012].

Obama's weakly job numbers.  The Labor Department reported Thursday [4/26/2012] that initial unemployment claims for the previous week had fallen by 1,000.  This was the sixth reported decline in the last eight weeks.  The overall impression is that the situation is improving, slowly but surely.  Over that same period, however, the actual number of new jobless per week has increased by almost 40,000.  The Obama administration is managing perceptions by revising the weekly numbers upward after the fact.  Every week for at least the last eight weeks, the initial jobless number has been raised after it was released, sometimes significantly.  So while the combined initial figures over that period show a 13,000 new jobless decline, this is only because 49,000 jobless were not included in the initial reports.

The Obama Jobs Disaster Worsens.  April's payroll job creation news was even worse than expected, as hiring slowed to only 115,000 jobs, well below the consensus expectation.  This marks the third consecutive year in which hiring has collapsed in the spring after showing some signs of life in the winter.  Interestingly, not all news outlets are willing to continue covering for the Obama administration.

The awful April jobs report.  Any way you slice or dice it, the April jobs report was terrible — and terribly disappointing.  Employers added just 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, way below the 180,000 Wall Street economists were expecting.

Jobs report a trainwreck.  The U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, well below expectations of 150,000 job gains, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Not only did BLS report terrible numbers for May, but it made downward revisions to previous months job growth numbers, which were already considered weak.

A No Confidence Vote For Obamanomics.  Analysts had predicted the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would climb to 70 in May.  Instead it dropped more than four points to 64.9, the biggest drop since last fall.  It's the latest in another round of disappointing numbers.  Just a few weeks ago, new jobs came in "unexpectedly" low.  And before that, GDP data disappointed.  Underperforming economic indicators have been so common under Obama that the only mystery is why the experts keep getting caught off guard.

Does Anyone Still Like Obama?  In another blow to Obama's reelection bid, consumer confidence, which has been low throughout Obama's presidency, stumbled badly last month after economists initially predicted confidence would go up.

Message from the flight deck.  [Scroll down]  Well, last Friday [6/1/2012] the cockpit warning lights for our economy lit up.  The Labor Department reported that the number of jobs produced in May was a dismal 69,000 — well below predictions.  Additionally, the job creation numbers for March and April were revised significantly downward and, overall, the unemployment rate edged up from 8.1% to 8.2%.

Jobless claims on the rise.  The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits climbed last week, indicating continued trouble for the labor market.  The Labor Department reported Thursday that 386,000 people filed new jobless claims in the week ended June 9, up 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure.  That was 11,000 more than expected.

More Americans Than Forecast File for Jobless Benefits.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the labor market continues to struggle.

Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction.  All 70 economists polled by Bloomberg came in on the high side.  Collapses are never expected.

June Jobs Report Unexpectedly Worse Than Lowered Expectations.  The experts who constantly guess wrong thought we'd create 90,000 jobs in June.  We created 80,000.  Unemployment rate holds at 8.2%.

Next Month's Job Growth Could Be Even Lower.  The Labor Department released jobs numbers for June today [6/8/2012] and the results were disappointing.  Estimates were that non-farm payroll would add around 100K jobs last month.  Instead they added just 80K, which is just over half the number needed to keep up with population growth.

U.S. Corn-Crop Forecast Cut as Drought Dims Supply Outlook.  The U.S. cut its corn-harvest estimate 12 percent and said inventories next year will be smaller than forecast in June as the worst Midwest drought since 1988 erodes prospects for a record crop.  Farmers will harvest 12.97 billion bushels (329.45 million metric tons), down from a June prediction of 14.79 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report.  Analysts expected 13.534 billion, based on the average of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

U.S. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Shrinks for Second Month.  American manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in July for a second month, reflecting a drop in orders that threatens to undercut a mainstay of the recovery.  The Institute for Supply Management's factory index was 49.8 last month, little changed from a three-year low of 49.7 reached in June, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today [8/1/2012].  Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a reading of 50.2, according to the median estimate, just above the 50 mark that separates expansions and contractions.

Jobless claims hold steady.  The number of people filing for their first week of unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, following three straight weeks of increases, the government said Thursday [8/30/2012].  The Labor Department said 374,000 people filed first-time jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 25.  That was slightly more than the forecasts of economists surveyed by  The previous week's reading was raised from the initially reported 372,000.

Weak jobs report fuels QE3 hopes.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% from 8.3%, but only as a result of a significant drop in the number of people looking for jobs.  Economists were expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.3%.

August Jobs Miss Expectations: 96k Jobs Added, Rate at 8.1%.  The Department of Labor released its initial report on August non-farm payrolls this morning [9/7/2012].  Job growth in August was a sub-par 96k jobs created.  The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% though, as more people left the workforce.  Consensus on Wall Street had been for a 125,000 increase in the number of jobs last month.  That number is slightly below the number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth.

Weekly Jobless Claims Jump.  The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, with several states reporting an increase related to Tropical Storm Isaac.

Jobless claims rise more than expected.  Initial claims for unemployment benefit rose more than expected last week, hitting 382,000 compared with a forecast of 370,000 in a Reuters poll and up from 367,000 the previous week.

Jobless Claims to U.S. Leading Index Add to Weakness.  More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits and an index of leading indicators declined for second time in three months, adding to signs of weakness in the world's largest economy.  Jobless claims decreased by 3,000 in the week ended Sept. 15 to 382,000, Labor Department figures showed today [9/20/2012] in Washington.  The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 375,000.  The New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months fell 0.1 percent after a 0.5 percent increase in July.

Durable goods drop worst since recession.  The Commerce Department said on Thursday [9/27/2012] durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession.  Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported 4.1 percent gain.

Business Activity in U.S. Shrinks for First Time Since 2009.  Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in September for the first time in three years, adding to signs manufacturing will contribute less to the economic recovery.

Jobless Claims Hit Four-Month High.  For the third straight week, the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits rose.  Thursday's [4/4/2013] increase was quite dramatic.  Though economists expected new claims to fall to 350,000, claims actually rose to 385,000 — the highest number since November.  The four-week rolling average also increased to 354,250.

Hiring in U.S. Tapers Off as Economy Fails to Gain Speed.  American employers increased their payrolls by 88,000 last month, compared with 268,000 in February, according to a Labor Department report released Friday [4/5/2013].  It was the slowest pace of growth since last June, and less than half of what economists had expected.

The 'New' Economy Takes Shape.  It is amazing just how wrong economists were in their predictions for the number of jobs that were to be created in March.  The "consensus" figure was 200,000 — a far cry from the actual number created which was 88,000.  Totally "unexpected," as usual.

Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery.  The unexpectedly large number of American workers who piled into the Social Security Administration's disability program during the recession and its aftermath threatens to cost the economy tens of billions a year in lost wages and diminished tax revenues.

Economist: Weaker-Than-Expected GDP Might Fuel Slow-Growth Fears.  The economy regained speed in the first quarter, but not as much as expected, heightening fears it could struggle to cope with deep government spending cuts and higher taxes.  Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, after growth nearly stalled in the fourth quarter.  Economists had expected a 3.0 percent growth pace.

Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery.  Anyone hoping for signs of a healthy economic recovery was disappointed by lower-than-expected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2013 — a mere 2.5%, far short of the forecast 3.2%.

GDP grows 1.8% in Q1, below estimates.  The economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the government reported Wednesday [6/26/2013], well below previous estimates of 2.4% growth and missing forecasts.

U.S. Economy Adds 195,000 Jobs in June.  The U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and more than May's figure, perhaps alleviating some concerns that the labor market is stuck in neutral and not contributing enough to the economic recovery.  The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%.  Economists had predicted an increase of 165,000 jobs and that the rate would drop to 7.5% from a month earlier.

Economy added a disappointing 162,000 jobs in July.  July was supposed to mark the starting point for an amped-up economy.  Instead, data on Friday [8/2/2013] showed the recovery remains stuck in second gear.  The Labor Department said that the economy added 162,000 jobs in July — enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 7.4 percent, but short of analysts' expectations.

Canadian Job Creation Triples Forecasts in August.  Canadian employment rose faster than economists forecast in August, gaining for the first time in three months led by part-time work and service industries. [...] Canada's dollar jumped as the gain contrasted with a U.S. report that showed payrolls rose by less than was forecast.

2013 ends with weakest job growth in years.  The job market suddenly looks a lot weaker than economists' had thought. Hiring slumped sharply in December, as the economy added only 74,000 jobs, according to the government.  This was the weakest month for job growth since January 2011 and came as a huge surprise to economists, who were expecting an addition of 193,000 jobs.

All Your Health Are Belong to Us.  "Expect the unexpected" has been good advice for anyone following American economic news since 2009.  That news has usually been bad, and almost always "unexpectedly" so. [...] A cynical observer might suggest that there is an element of deliberate spin involved, with reporters hoping to keep readers' expectations afloat until next month's report.

Warmer Temperatures Lift US Economy.  Economists had expected growth to accelerate in 2014 after two years of slow and steady improvement.  But an unusually bitter winter sent factories, hiring and consumer spending into hibernation.

'Recovering' U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks by 1 Percent.  We know that... err... certain things shrink on contact with the cold, and the winter is among the factors being blamed for an unexpected 1 percent contraction in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  After healthy growth in the fourth quarter of 2013, a slight slowdown was expected at the beginning of 2014, but the downturn caught economists by surprise.  The last economic contraction was during the first quarter of 2011.

More Americans than forecast file jobless claims.  The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to a two-month high, interrupting a steady decrease to the lowest level since before the last recession.  Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 315,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, which included the Labor Day holiday, a Labor Department report showed Thursday [9/11/2014].  It was the highest reading since June 28 and exceeded the Bloomberg survey median forecast of 300,000.  The data are difficult to adjust during holiday periods, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released.

Jobless claims surge to 11-week high.  The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits in the week before Thanksgiving jumped to an 11-week high and topped the 300,000 mark for the first time since early September, fresh government data showed Wednesday [11/26/2014].  Initial jobless claims leaped by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the Labor Department said.  Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast claims to total a seasonally adjusted 288,000.

Hiring surges as U.S. unemployment stays steady at 5.8 percent.  The U.S. economy added a whopping 321,000 jobs in November — far more than analysts had expected — although the national jobless rate remained stuck at 5.8 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [12/5/2014].  The November number of new jobs was nearly 50 percent higher than the consensus economist forecast, and sparked an early rally on world stock markets.  The Labor Department also revised September's report up by 15,000 to 271,000 jobs, and revised October up by 29,000 jobs to 243,000.

U.S. Adds 142,00 Jobs in September, Badly Missing Expectations.  The U.S. added 142,000 new jobs in September, a disappointing figure that fell well below expectations. [...] The headline unemployment rate held steady 5.1%, according to figures released by the U.S. Labor Department, but the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 62.4% from the prior month, another ominous sign that usually suggests discouraged job seekers are no longer even looking for work.  Economists had forecast 203,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate would remain at 5.1%.

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Updated January 7, 2019.

©2019 by Andrew K. Dart