The Unexpected

Synopsis by The Editor:
Under President Obama, bad news about the economy was always unexpected.  Under President Trump, good news is always unexpected.

Producer Inflation Surges Much Higher Than Expected, Core Inflation Hits Worst Level in Over A Year.  The prices paid by customers of businesses in the United States unexpectedly surged in June, undercutting confidence that inflation might be waning.  The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2 percent last month, according to data released by the government on Friday.  This was twice the increase expected by economists.  The prior month's prices were revised up, erasing what had been shown as a slight decline.  According to the revised May PPI, prices were flat in the month instead of declining 0.2 percent.

Inflation Falls Below Expectations as Economy Cools.  Inflation ticked down slightly year-over-year in June as rising prices continue to weigh on average Americans' finances, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release on Wednesday [7/10/2024].  The consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of the price of everyday goods, increased 3.0% on an annual basis in June and decreased 0.1% month-over-month, compared to 3.3% in May, according to the BLS.  Core CPI, which excludes the volatile categories of energy and food, remained high, rising 3.3% year-over-year in June, compared to 3.4% in May.  Inflation peaked at 9% under President Joe Biden in June 2022 after rising from just 1.4% year-over-year in January 2021 and has since failed to drop below 3%.

How Did 250,000 Jobs Suddenly Vanish This Year?  Did the economy create 206,000 jobs last month?  That's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.  But don't believe it.  Under President Joe Biden, the BLS has been consistently inflating monthly job growth numbers.  It makes great public relations, because the press reports only on the initial estimate, and rarely follows up on the subsequent downgrades.  But it does help explain why nobody believes Biden's — and the mainstream media's — propaganda about how great the labor market is doing.  Last month, for example, BLS said that the economy created 272,000 jobs, which the media branded as "whopping," "robust," "vigorous," and a "blowout."  Economists had expected 190,000 new jobs in May.

Payrolls Rise 206K After Huge Downward Revisions As Unemployment Rate Jumps To Three Year High.  It appears that Biden's apparatchiks refuse to give up on the myth of a "strong labor market" just yet even as they admit to anyone who reads between the lines just how ugly things are getting.  Moments ago the BLS reported that in June the US added 206K jobs, above the 190K expected.

Tesla auto deliveries beat expectations in second quarter.  Electric carmaker Tesla saw its shares surge on Tuesday after reporting auto deliveries that fell but topped analyst estimates, while General Motors logged modestly higher second-quarter US sales.  Tesla said it delivered around 444,000 vehicles worldwide in the April-June period, exceeding consensus estimates compiled by FactSet and sending its share price up around 9.0 percent.  But deliveries were still 4.7 percent down from a year ago.

CBO: Deficit projected to be 27% greater than previously expected, largely due to vote-buying loan 'forgiveness' and Zelensky's allowance.  There's a new report out by the Congressional Budget Office with an updated projection of the federal deficit for the 2024 fiscal year — in February, the office calculated we as a nation would be an additional $1.5 trillion in the red, but now that number has jumped 27% to $1.9 trillion, or a additional $400 billion.  The CBO report identified several factors impacting this increase, with Cadaver Joe's vote-buying student loan "forgiveness" scheme accounting for the "largest" portion of it. [...] According to Robert Schmad at The Daily Caller though, the CBO projection is based on only half of the actual anticipated cost, because this phase of the "forgiveness" scheme has yet to be finalized, and if it's permitted to materialize entirely, the deficit will jump another $66 billion: [...]

Retail sales rise by paltry 0.1% as shoppers feel pinch of high inflation.  Retail sales barely rose last month as Americans burdened by persistently sticky rates of inflation increasingly pull back on spending.  Data released on Tuesday by the Commerce Department showed that the value of retail purchases rose 0.1% in May — below analyst estimates of 0.2%.  Retail sales for the previous month were revised downward to 0.2%.

The Editor says...
Lots of information about inflation and unemployment is quietly revised a few weeks after it is first published, but the revised (worse) numbers don't make headlines.

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits unexpectedly spikes to 10-month high.  The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week unexpectedly jumped to the highest level in 10 months, the latest sign that the labor market is starting to cool in the face of high interest rates.  Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ending June 8 increased by 13,000 to 242,000, above the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 218,000 claims.  It marks the highest level for jobless claims since August 2023.  Continuing claims, filed by Americans who are consecutively receiving unemployment benefits, also rose to 1.82 million for the week ended June 1, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week.

Prices Are Never Going Down.  Biden tells us he's fighting inflation, and it seems as if we hear every day in the news about the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged to fight inflation.  But prices are still high and rising.  The latest numbers just released show that prices year to date are still rising faster than expected.

New Job Numbers Plummet in May, Way Below Expectations.  American businesses added far fewer new jobs in May than expected, making the month the worst of the year so far, a new report shows.  According to payroll giant ADP, U.S. businesses added just 152,000 new jobs in May.  The figure fell far short of the 175,000 new jobs economists had forecast for the month.

Canadian economy misses first-quarter growth forecast, June rate cut bets up.  The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the first quarter, missing forecasts, and real gross domestic product likely rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in April, data showed on Friday.  The data prompted financial markets to increase bets on a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week to almost 80% from 66% earlier.

U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%.  The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates in the coming months.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.  The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%.

Full-Time Jobs Fall Again As Total Employment Flatlines In April.  According to a new report from the federal government's Bureau of Labor Statistics this week, the US economy added 175,000 jobs for the month of April while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%.  The new reported job growth was considered a "miss" in that it came in below expectations, and for the first time in months, the media did not declare the jobs report to be "a blowout" or "strong."  Instead, the official narrative seemed to be that the "slowing economy" will bring down CPI inflation, and thus the Federal Reserve will soon force interest rates back down and bring about the fabled "soft landing."

Job Growth Falls Way Short Of Expectations As Unemployment Ticks Up.  The U.S. added 175,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday [5/3/2024].  Economists anticipated that the country would add 243,000 jobs in April compared to the 303,000 jobs that were added in initial estimates for March, and that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.8%, according to Reuters.  The job gains accompany recent slow economic growth, with gross domestic product totaling just 1.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024.

US hiring slows more than expected in sign of cooler market.  US job growth was markedly below analyst expectations in April while unemployment crept up, government data showed Friday, signaling that the labor market is cooling.  But with the world's biggest economy adding 175,000 jobs last month according to the Department of Labor, hiring appears still resilient despite the lower reading than 315,000 in March.  Analysts had expected growth of 250,000 jobs, according to

Another unexpected Friday.  That fellow Mister Unexpected won't go away.  He showed up again in the latest economic data. [...] With all due respect to the experts, and we sure have enough of them, it's hard to see how all this stuff is so unexpected.  All you have to do is buy gasoline or go out to eat and you will get a class on Inflation 101.  Everything is more expensive and we are not dining in upscale restaurants.  My last visit to a well-known fast food place cost me $18.  As for the economy in general, we hear more and more from business owners about the cost of inventory and difficulty of finding workers.  Anyway, I am not talking to anyone who tells me that things are going great.

US economy grew slower than expected at the start of 2024.  Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew by 1.6% on an annualized basis in the three-month period from January through March, the Commerce Department said in its first reading of the data on Thursday.  That is much lower than the 2.4% increase forecast by LSEG economists and marks a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% pace seen during the fourth quarter.  It is the slowest pace of growth in two years.

Navy's new landing ship could cost billions more than planned:  CBO.  The Navy's upcoming medium landing ship could cost billions more than the service plans, according to a new report by the Congressional Budget Office.  The CBO believes an 18-ship fleet would cost between $6.2 billion and $7.8 billion in 2024 (inflation-adjusted) dollars, or $340 million to $430 million per ship.  That's a stark contrast to Navy figures, which, according to the CBO, has an 18-ship program at $2.6 billion total, or about $150 million per ship.  Even using the more optimistic CBO figure, the gap between the two totals is eyewatering: $3.6 billion more, or a 138 percent overrun.

The Editor says...
No matter how much the cost exceeds the estimates, almost no project is ever cancelled.  Exceptions are rare, but still very costly.

Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected.  The consumer price index accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely dashing hopes that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.  The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.  Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.

Looks like we Trumped Red China.  The news on Monday morning was dominated by stories of an economic recovery by Red China of a recession that the U.S. press had largely ignored.  Bloomberg reported, "[Red] China's factory activity beat expectations in March, boosting optimism about the country's ability to achieve its ambitious growth goal of around 5% this year.

Brace For Another Jarring Miss In February Retail Sales.  [Paywall.  No, thanks.]

Biden Administration Is Rigging Economic Data.  There was a collective gasp of surprise two weeks ago when not only did CPI and core CPI both come in far hotter than expected, but the closely watched sticky Super Core inflation — Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index — soared 0.7% MoM (the biggest jump since Sept 2022[,] and while we correctly warned that the inflation print would come in red hot[,] most on Wall Street did not, and were scrambling to come up with justifications for why they were again collectively wrong, with Goldman being of particular note, as the bank attributed the spike to what it called a "January effect" and then assured its clients that "while some of the OER strength could persist if driven by the rebound in the single-family market, we continue to expect inflation in non-housing services to normalize in February and March now that the start-of-year price increases have been implemented."

California's massive budget deficit is almost double what Newsom estimated.  California's Legislative Analyst's Office announced Tuesday the state's budget deficit is much larger than Gov. Gavin Newsom's (D-CA) projected $38 billion shortfall.  In the report, the state's newly confirmed $73 billion deficit is $15 billion more than the $58 billion the office previously projected when Newsom introduced his budget in January.  "Roughly, a $24 billion erosion in revenues corresponds to a $15 billion increase in the budget problem.  This would expand the $58 billion estimated deficit to $73 billion under our updated revenue forecast," the report stated.

Another Inflation Signal:  Producer Prices Unexpectedly Spike.  I have argued that despite cranking up interest rates and running some assets off its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has not done enough to beat inflation.  And here's another sign that inflation isn't down and out.  Producer prices rose more than expected in January.  According to the latest data from the BLS, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3 percent.  The projection was for a much smaller 0.1 percent gain.  It was the biggest jump in wholesale prices since August.  On an annual basis, things didn't look quite as bad.  Headline PPI increased just 0.9 percent.  But this number primarily reflects cooling producer prices over the last several months.

What Do We Need Economists for When They're THIS Wrong?  The worst symptoms of Long COVID are the ones from the global hangover caused not by a weapons-grade virus engineered in a Communist Chinese laboratory but by government-mandated lockdowns and so-called "stimulus" spending.  John Rapley, author of last year's "Why Empires Fall," which has been stuck for months on my ever-growing Kindle list, wrote for Canada's Globe and Mail this week that "is increasingly apparent that the world economy is showing some of the chronic weakness we associate with long COVID."  "It appears the pandemic left some deep wounds in the economy," Rapley continued, "something few economists saw coming."  Before we get to the main point, just let me ask one simple question:  then why [...] do we need economists?  I saw it coming and planned accordingly.

There is something about Mr. Unexpected.  Guess who showed up this week?  It's Mr. Unexpected, the same one who seems to show up with every economic report these days. [...] I can't tell you whether it will rain or not around here but I'll bet a cup of strong Cuban coffee that Mr. Unexpected will tell us next month that something happened that he was not expecting.  Maybe we should fire all of the economic experts and replace them with housewives who understand the economy a lot better.  At least, the housewife never comes home and says that the rise in prices is unexpected.

Inflation ran hotter than expected in January, complicating the Fed's rate decision.  Inflation ran hotter in January than had been forecast by economists, signaling that higher prices remain sticky and complicating the Federal Reserve's decision about when to begin cutting its benchmark rate.  As with inflation last month, higher housing and food prices were the big drivers.  Consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, the government said on Tuesday.  Economists had expected January prices to rise at a 2.9% pace from a year ago, according to FactSet.  Even so, the pace reflected an improvement from December, when inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.4%.

Dow tumbles more than 500 points as hot inflation data stokes fears about higher-for-longer rates.  Stocks took a dive Tuesday after a key inflation report revealed stubborn price increases, raising concerns on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer than anticipated.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 525 points, or 1.4%, on Tuesday, its largest single-day drop since March 2023.  The blue-chip index nosedived more than 700 points at its session lows. [...] Traders now largely expect the Federal Reserve to first cut its benchmark lending rate in June or July, after initially expecting cuts as soon as May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Dow Falls 700 Points After CPI Inflation Report.  Stocks extended earlier losses on Tuesday, with the major indexes on track for their worst Consumer Price Index reaction since 2022.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 697 points, or 1.8%.  The S&P 500 was down 1.7%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 2%.  All three were on track for their worst post-CPI reactions since Sept. 13, 2022, when consumer prices jumped at an 8.3% annual pace in August 2022.

January Inflation Rises More Than Expected as Soaring Prices Continue.  While Biden refused for the second year in a row to sit for a traditional Super Bowl interview, he did find time to sit for a ridiculous, fact-challenged lecture about how "big consumer brands" are ripping off shoppers.  As RedState's Jennifer Van Laar reported, Biden's shtick was hilarious in its dishonesty from the outset.  America, here's Joe — babbling about "shrinkflation."  ["]While you were Super Bowl shopping, did you notice smaller-than-usual products where the price stays the same?  Folks are calling it Shrinkflation and it means companies are giving you less for every dollar you spend.  I'm calling on the big consumer brands to put a stop to it.["]  No, "folks" aren't calling it "shrinkflation," Joe — you and your administration are calling it "shrinkflation" in a transparent attempt to blame manufacturers for continuing inflation and high prices.

Ford Announces Billions of Dollars in Losses on Electric Vehicle Range — Worse Than Expected.  There is more bad news for electric vehicle manufacturers.  After declaring its annual results a success, Ford has revealed that it incurred a loss of $4.7 billion on its electric vehicle range, more than the $4.5 billion the company predicted in the middle of last year. [...] Such failures have become a common occurrence for many electric vehicle companies, despite the Biden administration providing billions in government subsidies and favorable industry regulations.  Ford's biggest rival, General Motors (GM), incurred losses of approximately $1.7 billion in its electric vehicle division during the final quarter of 2023 alone.  In October last year, GM revised its production ambitions, abandoning its target to manufacture 400,000 EVs by mid-2024 due to concerns over profitability and market demand.

Fearless Forecasting at the OMB.  [Chart, not shown here.]  Of course, you need to be a scientist or an expert or an economist to read the chart.  So I will tell you what it says.  It says that the folks at the OMB had no idea there would be inflation in our all-American future until the FY23 budget came out in March 2022.  Really, you scientists and experts and economists... After the Fed increased the M2 money supply 25 percent from $15.3 trillion to $19.2 trillion in 2020, you couldn't come up with a realistic inflation estimate when you published the FY22 budget in May 2021? [... Another chart]  I know.  It's confusing, even for scientists and experts and economists.  So I will tell you what the chart says.  It says that the scientists and experts and economists at OMB had no idea — after the money printer go brrr in 2020 and 2021 — that outlays on interest on the federal debt were going to skyrocket in the near future.

US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December As Fiscal Collapse Under Biden Accelerates.  Moments ago the US Treasury reported the budget deficit picture for December and it will come as no surprise to anyone that the US has continued to spend like a drunken sailor, or rather, even more.  As shown in the chart below, in the month of December, the US collected $429 billion through various taxes, while total outlays hit $559 billion.  [Chart]  This may not sound like a lot, but December is actually one of those months when the US deficit is relatively tame, or used to be.  As shown in the next chart, traditionally the December deficit was barely in the $10-20 [billion] range... until 2020 when it exploded to an all time high of $140 [billion].  And while it dropped sharply in 2021, it rebounded dramatically in 2022, and rose to just shy of the December crisis high last month!

Biden cautions against 'extreme Republicans' in [the] face of [a] hot December inflation report.  President Joe Biden conceded Thursday that December's inflation report shows that the administration must do more to lower costs and cautioned that Republicans taking the White House instead would raise prices for households.  The December Consumer Price Index featured both month-to-month and year-over-year inflation clocking in above projections.  Monthly inflation increased by 0.3% while yearly inflation rose by 3.4%, compared to estimates of 0.2% and 3.2% respectively.

California Unexpectedly Hit by Bad Luck As Top Wealth Producers Flee the State.  After nearly two centuries of uninterrupted economic and population growth, California has hit a pothole in the road.  There had been a lot of warning signs that the Democrats' hostility to success and achievement was coming home to roost but the first finite, undeniable warning was when California lost a House seat in the 2020 reapportionment.  This was the first time in history that California had lost a House seat and marked the end of a run of gains that started with a one-seat gain in the 1860 Census and culminated in a series of 5-7 seat gains between 1910 and 1980. [...] According to the LA Times, the pain is beginning to be felt as the outflow of high-earners (and maximum tax rate payers) is replaced by an inflow of people dependent upon public services.

US job growth cools in October to 150K while unemployment unexpectedly rises.  U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October, a sign the labor market is finally softening in the face of higher interest rates, stubborn inflation and other economic uncertainties.  Employers added 150,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, missing the 180,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists.  The unemployment rate, meanwhile, unexpectedly ticked up to 3.9% — the highest level in nearly two years.  The pickup in the jobless rate suggests that layoffs are on the rise; the survey of households shows that the number of workers laid off rose in October by 92,000 from the previous month.

Treasury just dropped a financial bomb, but Bidenomics means the worst is yet to come.  With all the chaos and heartbreaking loss of life around the world today, few noticed the Treasury Department drop a financial bomb:  The deficit for fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion, growing 23 percent in a single year as the Treasury used $879 billion just to service the federal debt.  But "Bidenomics" means the worst is yet to come, and multi-trillion-dollar deficits are the new normal.  The impetus for these massive deficits is federal government spending, which tipped the scales at $6.1 trillion last year.  Government receipts, meanwhile, were $4.4 trillion, woefully short of the $5 trillion previously forecasted.  A slowing economy and counterproductive tax increases were key drivers behind the $457 billion drop in receipts from the prior fiscal year.

Prices Rise More Than Expected as Inflation's Grip on Economy Persists.  The cost of goods and services rose 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month in September, challenging the view that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are still bringing down inflation.  The personal consumption expenditure price index was expected to cool slightly from the prior month.  Over the past year, the index is up 3.4 percent.  That is unchanged from the August reading, data from the Commerce Department showed Friday.  The Federal Reserve says it wants to bring PCE inflation down to two percent, a rate not seen since President Joe Biden took office in early 2021.

How Did Biden Manage To Lose $300 Billion?  Friday afternoon, the Treasury Department reported that, despite a growing economy and low unemployment, the federal deficit shot up by $320 billion in fiscal year 2023.  That's unusual.  But what's really bizarre is why the deficit exploded.  According to the report, overall spending actually dropped by 2% compared with 2022 as the COVID-19 spending splurge abated.  What drove up the deficit this year was a sudden and completely unexpected 9% drop in tax revenues.  Not only did revenues come up hundreds of billions lower than last year, but they were well below what everybody expected them to be.  At the start of the year, the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget projected revenues for fiscal 2023 at around $4.7 trillion.  The Congressional Budget Office figured it would be $4.8 trillion.  The actual amount:  $4.4 trillion.  In other words, there's between $300 billion and $400 billion worth of missing tax revenues.

'Mr. More than expected' shows up again.  Our old pal "Mr. More than expected" showed up in September.  He came in the new inflation figures. [...] All this fancy wording means that your wallet will continue to be under siege.  No relief coming when fill your tank or your wife puts groceries in the cart.  An economist on the radio said something like the battle against inflation is still bumpy and high housing and gasoline costs will continue to squeeze budgets.  Isn't it funny how they keep talking about gasoline prices but won't do a darn thing to increase production?  Wouldn't unleashing oil production bring down gasoline prices and everything else that has to be transported?  Well, there you have it.  Remember that the next time they tell you that they've got inflation under control.

About yesterday's job report 'exceeding expectations'.  Friday's September 2023 job report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was a good news bad news report. [...] And yes, let's be thrilled for the people who are working.  But — yeah, there is a but.  Several, actually.  Here is one: "the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent."  If all those 336,000 were added and filled, shouldn't the unemployment rate go down?  Something doesn't add up here. [...] A significant small chunk of that dramatic job increase was that "government employment rose by 73,000 jobs" — i.e., public-sector jobs consume more and more of your tax dollars.  The private sector is not increasing as rapidly.  Oh, and not so by the way, the job report consists of those looking for work.  "Duh," you might respond.  But many people have dropped out of the labor market.  This report is based on people who are at least looking for work, but only 63% of the civilian labor force is actually looking.  Others have dropped out for various reasons.

The Nation's Fiscal Crisis Just Got Real.  Over the weekend, the Washington Post let it slip that all is not well in Bidenomicsville.  The deficit, it reports, could end up hitting $2 trillion when the current fiscal year ends in three weeks, which it describes as an "unexpected deficit surge."  In other words, the deficit will nearly double this year, calling the lie on one of President Joe Biden's favorite boasts about how he cut the deficit more than any president in history.

Inside Today's Disastrous Jobs Report: 670K Full-Time Jobs Lost In 2 Months Vs 1 Million Part-Time Surge; Worst Unadjusted August Payrolls Since Great Recession.  [Scroll down]  [Y]ou will not hear anyone from the Biden admin or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in August the number of full-time jobs dropped again, sliding by 85K to 134.2 million, and followed the whopping 585K plunge in July which brings the two-month total drop in full-time jobs to a whopping 670K, the biggest 2-month plunge since the covid lockdowns in early 2020 when 12.5 million full-time jobs were lost in one month!  But if full-time jobs crashed how did the BLS get an increase of 222,000 employed workers?  Simple:  it was all in the latest jump of part-time workers.  Indeed, in August the number of reported part-timers jumped by 32K and when added to the near-record 972K surge in July, the 2-month total was just over one million — 1,004,000 to be precise — to 27.185 million.

Dick's Sporting Goods' stock slammed after earnings miss by a wide margin.  The reason was shoplifting.  Dick's Sporting Goods Inc.'s stock tumbled 22% Tuesday, after the retailer's second-quarter profit missed Wall Street's consensus estimate by a wide margin, while sales also fell short, and the company squarely blamed theft for its woes.  It was the company's first earnings miss in three years.  The last time Dick's missed the profit and sales consensus estimates was in April 2020, when it was reporting first-quarter earnings for that year.  "While we posted another double-digit EBT [or earnings before tax] margin, our [second quarter] profitability was short of our expectations due in large part to the impact of elevated inventory shrink, an increasingly serious issue impacting many retailers," said CEO Lauren Hobart in a statement.

US Labor Market Continues to Slow as Economy Adds 187,000 New Jobs.  The U.S. economy added 187,000 new jobs in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), falling short of the consensus estimate of 200,000 and making it the second-weakest jobs growth under President Joe Biden.  The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 25,000 to 281,000.  It was also adjusted for June by 24,000.  So far this year, every jobs report has been revised lower. [...] Bryce Doty, the senior vice president and senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, called this "an unusual jobs report," alluding to the smaller-than-expected employment gain, higher wage growth, and a lower unemployment rate.

The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday [5/1/2023] warned that the United States may run out of measures to pay its debt obligations by June 1, earlier than the government and Wall Street had been expecting.  In a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Yellen said new data on tax receipts forced the department to move up its estimate of when the Treasury Department "will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government's obligations" to potentially as early as June 1, if Congress doesn't raise or suspend the debt limit before then.

GDP Disappoints: U.S. Economy Grew Just 1.1% in First Quarter.  The U.S. economy expanded at a sluggish 1.1 percent annual pace in the first three months of the year despite strong consumer spending.  Wall Street analysts had expected a two percent increase in gross domestic product after the economy grew 2.6 percent in the final three months of last year.

Biden Admin Was Caught 'Off Guard' Again by Classified Intel Leak.  Scores of highly classified documents appearing to contain intelligence about foreign countries gathered by the United States have been posted online in recent days, drawing a significant amount of of [sic] hand-wringing and outcry from Biden administration officials who were caught "off guard," especially those at the Pentagon.  According to The New York Times, the latest "batch of classified documents that appear to detail American national security secrets from Ukraine to the Middle East to China surfaced on social media sites on Friday, alarming the Pentagon and adding turmoil to a situation that seemed to have caught the Biden administration off guard."  Can anyone think of a situation in the last two-plus years in which the Biden administration was not caught off guard?

Majority of Economists Expect U.S. Economy Will Fall Into Recession This Year.  The U.S. economy is expected to fall into a recession later this year, said a majority of economists surveyed in an influential semi-annual poll.  Fifty-eight percent of economists said they expect the economy to be in a recession to begin this year, according to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Policy Survey.

The Editor says...
After reading the rest of this page, come back to this point and see if you still have any confidence in the average economist's "expectations."

At last!  These numbers are just as expected — but not good.
Inflation gauge increased 0.4% in February, as expected and up 6% from a year ago.  Inflation rose in February but was in line with expectations, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for another interest rate hike next week despite recent banking industry turmoil.  The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.  Both readings were exactly in line with Dow Jones estimates.

The Editor says...
As usual, be on the lookout for "revised" (worse) numbers in a couple of weeks, which will be ignored by most of the news media.

U.S. Economy Still Hot with 311,000 Jobs Created in February.  Today's jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed better-than-expected job creation for the month of February.  Nonfarm payrolls far surpassed expectations, rising by 311,000 in February.  The Dow Jones estimate prior to Friday's numbers was around 225,000.

The Editor says...
Please defer your excitement and wait to see how far down these numbers go when they are "revised" in a couple of weeks.

Inflationary Gaslighting — Fed Chair Says Interest Rates "likely to be higher than previously expected".  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers testimony today before the Senate Banking and Finance Committee.  During his statements Powell says, "The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated."  Powell continued, "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes." ... "We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting." ... "Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy."  Everything about the testimony to the Senate, and almost everything within the questioning as presented, ignores the key and central component that inflation is being driven by energy policy.  The scale of the pretending around this issue is jaw dropping.

Powell tells Congress rates will likely be 'higher than previously anticipated'.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday interest rates are likely to rise more than previously expected as the central bank works to bring down inflation, which remains stubbornly above the central bank's 2% target.  U.S. stocks were trading lower Tuesday as some analysts said the comments were more hawkish than expected.  Near 2:20 p.m. ET, the benchmark S&P 500 was near session lows, falling 1.5%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.2%.  "The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," Powell told the Senate Banking Committee in prepared remarks.  "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes."

Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.6% in January, more than expected.  A measure the Federal Reserve watches closely to gauge inflation rose more than expected in January, indicating the central bank has more work to do to bring down prices.  The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.6% for the month, and was up 4.7% from a year ago, the Commerce Department reported Friday.  Wall Street had been expecting respective readings of 0.5% and 4.4%.  The core PCE gains were 0.4% and 4.6% in December.  Including the volatile food and energy components, headline inflation increased 0.6% and 5.4% respectively, compared to 0.2% and 5.3% in December.

American Workers' Real Wages Decrease Again in January as Inflation Rises More Than Expected.  The real wages of American workers fell last month as a result of the inflation crisis that began shortly after Democrat President Joe Biden took office, according to a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [...] The decrease in real wages for American workers follows a pattern of falling wages that the economy has experienced nearly every month since Biden took office.  The news comes as inflation rose by 0.5% in January, more than economists expected, and rose by 6.4% from January 2022, which was also more than economists expected.

Holiday sales fall short of expectations, set stage for tougher 2023 for retailers.  Holiday sales came in below industry expectations, as shoppers felt pinched by inflation and rising interest rates, according to data from the National Retail Federation.  Sales during November and December grew 5.3% year over year to $936.3 billion, below the major trade group's prediction for growth of between 6% and 8% over the year prior.  In early November, NRF had projected spending of between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.  The retail sales number excludes spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, and is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.  It covers the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.  The holiday sales gains include the impact of inflation, which drives up total sales.

Sorry About Those Jobs.  Joe Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that over a million jobs were created in the second quarter, a heartening statistic that no doubt helped the Democrats in November.  But now, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve says that those million jobs were almost entirely fictitious:  ["]The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.  Job growth was 'essentially flat' in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.["]  Could the Bureau of Labor Statistics be a politicized agency, faking numbers to help the Democratic Party?

Good news, but still unexpected.
Job Growth Shatters Expectations In November As Labor Market Stays Tight.  The U.S. added 263,000 jobs in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Friday, accelerating slightly from the 261,000 in October, as unemployment held steady at 3.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The number shot past investors' expectations, with economists polled by Dow Jones predicting that the market had added 200,000 jobs in November, according to CNBC.  A cooling labor market might convince the Federal Reserve to slow its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes, since reduced demand for workers would help reign in historically high inflation, according to CNN.

Wait, This Is The Inflation News Everyone Is Celebrating?  The moment the government's inflation number came out last Thursday, the stock market rocketed upward.  President Joe Biden took a victory lap.  It was less than expected!  Inflation is cooling off!  Sounds wonderful.  Except that prices rose in October by almost 8% year-over-year.  That's four times faster than the Federal Reserve Bank's 2% target rate.  And it marks the 20th consecutive month since inflation has been above the Fed's target.  It also comes on top of previous record-level price hikes.

Inflation 'Unexpectedly' Surges Again, Sets the Stage for Democrats Pre-Election.  Hide your kids, hide your wife, and also hide your wallet because we've had another "unexpected" inflation report drop.  September's inflation rate clocked in at 8.2 percent.  To make matters worse, month-over-month inflation, a metric the White House was touting back in August, actually rose by 0.4 percent as core CPI surged to 6.6 percent. [...] What this means for Americans in real dollars, after compounding everything, is that they are paying about 15 percent more for things today than they were before Biden took office.  Think about that.  In less than two years, you have lost 15 percent of your paycheck, and depending on your spending priorities, that number could be far higher.  That is insanely unsustainable, but unfortunately, there is nothing in this report that suggests things are going to cool off any time soon.  Core CPI is still rising and month-over-month inflation has accelerated over the last two months.  Things are bad, and the job losses are going to start in short order as the economy continues to collapse.

Inflation [is] worse than expected at 8.2% in final pre-election report.  Inflation clocked in worse than expected at 8.2% for the 12 months ending in September according to the consumer price index, bad news for the country's economic health.  The much-anticipated numbers reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday revealed that while it ticked down by one-tenth of a percentage point, inflation is still higher than anticipated and defying the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes.  Worse, "core inflation," which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose sharply in September.  On an annual basis, it rose to a whopping 6.6%, the highest since 1982. The Thursday morning report is the last such CPI reading before the midterm elections next month and has major implications for Democrats hoping to retain control of Congress.

Wholesale inflation rises more than expected in September, with prices jumping 8.5%.  Inflation at the wholesale level rose more than expected in September as prices for everyday necessities remain at a multi-decade high, squeezing businesses and millions of American households.  The Labor Department said Wednesday [10/12/2022] that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, rose 0.4% in September from the previous month.  On an annual basis, prices soared 8.5%.  That is down from the 8.7% recorded in August and marks the lowest reading since July 2021.  Still, those figures were both higher than the 8.3% headline figure and 0.3% monthly gain forecast by Refinitiv economists, a worrisome sign for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to cool price gains and tame consumer demand with an aggressive interest rate hike campaign.  Excluding food, energy and trade services, inflation at the wholesale level increased 0.4% for the month — the fastest gain since May.  Over the past 12 months, core prices climbed 5.6%.

Food Cost Jump Sparks Hotter Than Expected US Producer Price Inflation.  PPI is the under-card ahead of tomorrow's main event CPI print, but nevertheless will offer some insights into how the inflation picture is evolving in the US and is expected to slow at the headline level but flat at the core level.  The headline PPI printed +8.5% YoY (which was hotter than the expected +8.4% YoY) but down from August's 8.7%[.]

US adds lowest level of jobs in 18 months.  The jobs report looks decent on its own — but the trendlines are all going the wrong way.  The US economy added 263,000 jobs in September, the lowest level in more than a year, and a miss even off the lowered expectations of 275,000 by forecasters.  [Tweet]  The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, but for the wrong reasons.  First off, 229,000 workers left the labor force, which artificially lowers the U-3 result.  But more worrisome is the population-employment ratios: [...]

Job Openings Take the Biggest Nosedive Since the Start of COVID.  With November's midterm elections now just over a month away, President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party just got something else to worry about.  Besides inflation eating away at the paychecks of normal Americans, an illegal alien invasion that finally made it to the consciousness of the mainstream media, and the specter of ever-rising crime, a report on Tuesday about job openings in the nation's economy just dealt another blow to the Democratic spin machine.  And it was far worse than economists had predicted.

Fed's preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August.  Inflation in August was stronger than expected despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring down prices, according to data Friday that the central bank follows closely.  The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July.  That was faster than the 0.5% Dow Jones estimate and another indication that inflation is broadening.

Surprise! The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Thought.  On Thursday, the Commerce Department released revisions to its estimates of GDP and GDI.  The GDP estimates were unchanged but the GDI estimates for the first half of this year were marked down sharply.  First quarter GDI grew at a 0.8 percent annual rate and second quarter GDI growth was a mere 0.1 percent.  Many economists look to the average of GDI and GDP as a signal for the health of the economy.  Prior to the revisions, that average appeared to imply that the U.S. economy was growing in the first half of the year, supporting the claim that the U.S. economy was not in a recession.  After the revisions, the average of GDI indicates the economy shrank 0.3 percent in the second quarter and 0.4 percent in the first.

The Bidenomics Sham Is Collapsing.  With red lights flashing nearly everywhere, the economy's prospects look grim.  Soaring inflation, crashing home sales, plunging GDP, falling real incomes.  No question, the economy is a mess.  So why is the Biden administration saying things are going better?  It's not just this week's "unexpected" 8.3% inflation jump.  Or the scary plunge in stock prices, destroying trillions of dollars in household wealth in just days.  It's that the ruling party, the Democratic Party, seems utterly oblivious to the damage it's done.  This week, President Joe Biden touted the "progress" made by his administration against inflation, just a day after the report that prices had risen 8.3% overall, and food prices by 11.4%, the fastest since 1979.

Networks Isolate Biden From Blame for 'Disappointing' Inflation Report.  While each took a different approach, the major broadcast networks of ABC, CBS, and NBC worked Wednesday [7/14/2022] to isolate President Biden from blame for the pitiful August inflation report showing it came out to 8.3 percent (when the predicted number was 8.1 percent) with energy, food, and rent still soaring.  Instead, some of them trumpeted Biden's "positive spin" and that he's "not worried about" it while one ignored Biden completely.  ABC's Good Morning America co-host and former Clinton official George Stephanopoulos opened with a tease warning of "[t]he sharpest one-day stock market loss in two years and the inflation fallout" following "[t]he disappointing new economic report showing prices still climbing more than expected."

Inflation Rises After Joe Biden Signs 'Inflation Reduction Act' and Prepares White House Celebration.  The White House is planning a celebration of President Joe Biden's "Inflation Reduction Act" on Tuesday, even as consumer prices rose again in August, according to the latest numbers from the federal government.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index released Tuesday morning shows that inflation in August rose one-tenth of a percentage point from July and up 8.3 percent from the previous year.  Grocery prices continue rising fast, as prices rose 0.7 percent from July and 13.5 percent from the previous year.  Restaurant prices are up 0.9 percent from July[.]

Dow Plunges 900 Points after Worse-Than-Expected Inflation Report.  The major stock market indexes tumbled on Tuesday, notching the worst one-day performance for stocks since June 2020, after a key measure of inflation came in worse than expected.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,276 points, for a 3.94 percent decline.  The S&P 500 dropped 4.32 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.16 percent.  The drop, which undid a week worth of gains, came after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 8.3 percent in August compared to the same time last year and increased 0.1 percent from the previous month.  The rise was worse than the 8.1 percent increase that economists had expected, according to Dow Jones estimates.

Inflation comes in hotter than expected at 8.3% annual rate in August.  Inflation ticked down to 8.3% for the 12 months ending in August, according to the consumer price index, hotter than expected but still a decline from the month before.  The much-anticipated numbers reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday revealed that while it ticked down, inflation is still high despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes.  July's headline CPI reading clocked in at 8.5%. [...] So-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% in August, more than expected and more than the previous month.  The figure shows that inflation is still a huge concern for the Fed and for households.  The gasoline index fell 10.6% in August, which offset increases in food and shelter costs.  The energy index fell 5% on the month but is still up a sky-high 23.8% for the 12 months ending in August.  Food prices increased more than 11% during that same period, according to the report.

Inflation rose faster than expected in August, keeping prices painfully high.  Inflation rose more than expected in August, squeezing U.S. households even as the cost of gasoline fell and continuing to create a political headache for President Biden.  The Labor Department said Tuesday that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 8.3% in August from a year ago.  Prices climbed 0.1% in the one-month period from July.  Those figures were both higher than the 8.1% headline figure and 0.1% monthly decline forecast by Refinitiv economists, a worrisome sign for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to cool price gains and tame consumer demand with an aggressive interest rate hike campaign.

Charles Payne Points out Problem in Jobs Report, Peter Doocy Drives It Home to WH.  The Biden team is trumpeting the new jobs report that came out on Friday [8/5/2022] indicating that there were 528,000 new jobs, which was far more than expected.  [Tweet]  Except not so much, as Fox's Charles Payne indicates.  You can see here from the chart [not shown here] how the labor force participation is continuing to go down from May.  So what does this all mean?  Payne notes that full-time jobs are down by 71,000.  What's up are part-time jobs by 384,000 and people holding multiple jobs, up by 92,000.

Job Openings in June Decreased 605,000, Retail Sector Dropped 343,000.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces a monthly report of available job openings.  The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS report) shows the number of available jobs at a captured moment in time. [...] Hires and separations were little changed, so too was the number of people who quit their jobs.  The big change in this JOLTS survey was the removal of available jobs.  Employers cancelling job openings.

U.S. GDP Shrinks 0.9 Percent in Second Quarter.  The U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter of 2022 as the economy was battered by four-decade high inflation, record high fuel prices, soaring food costs, and tighter monetary policy.  The government reported Thursday [7/28/2022] that Gross Domestic Product shrank by 0.9 percent in the April through June period.  Economists had expected the economy to grow by 0.3 percent, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Inflation Hits 9.1 Percent in June, New 40-Year High.  The U.S. annual inflation rate climbed to 9.1 percent in June, reaching its highest level since November 1981 and topping the market estimate of 8.8 percent and May's annual rate of 8.6 percent.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3 percent month-over-month.  The monthly inflation also was higher than economists' expectations of 1.1 percent.  While the core inflation rate, which removes the volatile food and energy sectors, eased to 5.9 percent, that was higher than the forecast of 5.7 percent.  On a monthly basis, core inflation rose at a higher-than-expected pace of 0.7 percent.  Food prices soared by 10.4 percent, while the energy index advanced by 41.6 percent.

Small Business Owners' Expectations for the Future Fall to New 48-year Low.  Small business owners in America are feeling their gloomiest in nearly five decades, a survey released Tuesday morning showed.  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its gauge of businesses expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell to the worst reading in the 48-year history of the survey.  This measure's previous all-time high was set in April.  Inflation continues to be a problem for small businesses with 28 percent of owners reporting it is their single most important problem in operating their business.  That is below the 32 percent recorded in April, the highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1980.

Atlanta Fed Revises Second Quarter GDP Estimate to Negative 1 Percent.  We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.  A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.  Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.  That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result.

CNN: Recessions Are Racist.  The U.S. economy shrank worse than expected in the first quarter, stoking fears that we are headed for recession, if not already in one.  In fact, most Americans already believe we are in a recession.  And they're probably right.  A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters with negative growth.  However, as CNN's Nicole Goodkind notes, "the economy isn't broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown group of eight economists says so."

The Biden Recession Has Arrived.  No doubt about it, the economic news in recent weeks has been relentlessly negative.  Indicator after indicator shows activity plunging sharply in key parts of the economy.  Now, a widely followed indicator signals economic growth is likely to be zero in the current quarter, after the first quarter's "unexpected" 1.4% decline.

The Biden Admin Said Gas Would Be $2.88 This Year.  At the end of 2021, the Biden administration released its energy outlook forecast for 2022, and their predictions show just how little they understand about American energy and how utterly unprepared they were for the energy crisis Biden was creating.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration — under the Department of Energy led by Secretary Jennifer Granholm — releases "short-term energy outlook" reports each month to provide information on liquid fuels and forecast their future trends.  Their report issued December 7, 2021 [...] notes that the forecast "remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic" but proceeded to estimate that "U.S. GDP will grow by 5.5% in 2021 and by 4.4% in 2022."

Gas prices officially smash EIA record, rise to $5.107 a gallon.  Maybe this is the "historic" part of Karine Jean-Pierre's claim to CNN's Don Lemon last night that Joe Biden has put America in a good economic position.  "Historic" certainly describes the position American consumers face when pumping gas into their vehicles.  If yesterday's data from AAA and the Washington Post made the record unofficially official, the EIA's official finding confirms that gas prices not only hit a new record, but also rose thirteen cents in a week to land at $5.107 per gallon. [...] Even in December, as the winds of war began first stirring in Ukraine, the Biden administration predicted that gas prices would remain stable in 2022 at $2.88 per gallon: [...] Even apart from the war in Ukraine, which US intel had already started to warn would unfold, this prediction was absurd.  How did Biden and his team predict gas prices would fall while the economy expanded and Biden kept obstacles in place for new drilling and refining?

Here's What the Biden Admin Claimed Gas Prices Would Be This Year.  In November 2020, experts came out of the woodwork to dismiss the idea that gas prices would skyrocket under Joe Biden as conservatives predicted.  "A dubious meme has emerged online in conservative circles:  The price of gasoline will spike because Joe Biden is taking office," the Washington Post reported in November 2020.  The meme featured a gas station with gas prices of over $5.00/gal, but the author dismissed the meme, insisting that "although a president's actions — including Biden's climate policies — can nudge the price of oil, the effect is marginal at best, experts say."

Wait. Didn't The 'Experts' Tell Us Inflation Had Peaked Months Ago?  Inflation in May hit 8.6%, the highest level since 1981, much higher than the expected 8.2% increase, and despite all the "expert" predictions that inflation had already peaked.  Is it any wonder that nobody believes what the elites tell us anymore?  President Joe Biden said on Friday that he "is going to continue to do everything we can to lower the prices for the American people."  Like what?  By attacking oil companies and blaming Putin?  If the experts were right, Biden wouldn't have to do anything, because they were all exclaiming in April that inflation had peaked and would soon be heading downward.

Stocks dive to another losing week as inflation worsens.  Wall Street's shuddering realization that inflation got worse last month, not better as hoped, sent markets reeling on Friday.  The S&P 500 sank 2.9% to lock in its ninth losing week in the last 10, and tumbling bond prices sent Treasury yields to their highest levels in years.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 3.5%.

Dow drops 750 points as red-hot inflation blows past expectations.  Wall Street veered sharply into the red on Friday following a new inflation reading that was worse that economists had expected, fanning worries about more aggressive steps by the Federal Reserve to tame rising prices.  At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 880 points, or 2.7 percent, to 31,392.79.  The S&P 500 dropped 2.9 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 3.5 percent.  The Labor Department's report on Friday showed that the consumer price index jumped 8.6 percent in May from a year ago, the fastest increase since December 1981 and much hotter than expected, a sign that inflation has not yet peaked.

Inflation Rate Hits 8.6 Percent, Highest Level in Four Decades.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) went up by 8.6 percent in May, the highest year-over-year increase since December 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday [6/10/2022].  The increase was higher than the 8.3 percent increase projected by economists.  Core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, increased by six percent year-over-year.

Flashback: When 'Experts' Claimed Gas Prices Would NOT Skyrocket Under Biden.  No one can say we didn't warn you that gas prices would go up under Joe Biden.  President Trump predicted it on the campaign trail.  "It's an incredible thing that's happened over the last few years, a lot of great things, and you're paying, what, $2 a gallon for your gasoline?  That's okay," he said.  "You know what that's like?  That's like a tax cut," he pointed out.  "That's bigger than a tax cut.  If Biden got in, you'd be paying $7, $8, $9.  Then they'd say, 'Get rid of your car.'"  And boy, was he right.  As gas prices hit historic highs, Democrats have been using that in a push for people to buy electric cars that are typically in the range of $60,000.

Inflation hits fresh 40-year high in May with consumer prices surging 8.6%.  Inflation remained painfully high in May, with consumer prices hitting a new four-decade high that exacerbated a financial strain for millions of Americans and worsened a political crisis for President Biden.  The Labor Department said Friday that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 8.6% in May from a year ago.  Prices jumped 1% in the one-month period from April.  Those figures were both higher than the 8.3% headline figure and 0.7% monthly gain forecast by Refinitiv economists.

Yellen warns inflation to remain 'high,' force Biden to revise budget forecasts.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that she expects inflation to remain "high" this year, even telling lawmakers that the administration's two-month-old forecast for price increases needs to be revised.  A week after admitting that she was wrong about persistent inflation that climbed to a 40-year high of 8.5% this spring, Ms. Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee that the White House also was wrong about its prediction that inflation would average 4.7% this year.  She said the forecast, introduced in the president's fiscal 2023 budget proposal on March 30, needs to be revised.

Small Business Payrolls Collapse in New ADP Report for May, Total Employment Result Far Below Expectations.  You do not need anyone to affirm that Main Street is in trouble, you can see it all around you.  Inflation is crushing blue-collar and white-collar workers as prices continue to rise on essential goods.  Consumer spending is now prioritized around the higher cost of housing, energy, gasoline and food.  Family earnings are spent before the paychecks arrive for most Main St workers, and now we are starting to see the alarming result economic contraction, beginning with small businesses.  That's the message within the ADP private sector payroll report released today, which shows a contraction in small business employment.  Economists were looking for private payroll increases in the 300,00 range; but the result was far lower at 128,000.  Small businesses lost 91,000 jobs in May.  Main Street is in trouble.

Bidenflation: Labor Costs Rise at Fastest Pace in 40 Years.  The labor costs in the U.S. rose sharply in the first three months of the year, reflecting the highly inflationary environment and adding even more upward pressure on consumer prices.  Unit labor costs jumped 12.6 percent in the first quarter, a big increase from the initial estimate of 11.6 percent, data from the Department of Labor showed Thursday.  Economists had forecast no change from the initial estimate.

Worse Than Expected Again:  Producer Prices Up 11%.  Prices charged by U.S. businesses were up 11 percent in April compared with a year ago, the fifth straight month of the government's producer price inflation gauge running at or above 10 percent.  The Department of Labor said Thursday that its Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April compared with a month earlier, in line with expectations.  But there the results for earlier months were revised up, bringing the 12-month figure above economists' expectations for a 10.7 percent rise.

St. Louis Fed's Bullard:  Inflation 'broader, more persistent' than originally though.  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said that high readings on inflation still concern central bank officials, reinforcing the need for higher interest rates.  "Inflation is broader and more persistent than many have thought and the Fed will have to act in order to keep inflation under control and we've got a plan in place," Bullard told Yahoo Finance in an exclusive interview on Wednesday [5/11/2022].  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday morning that prices in the United States rose by 8.3% between April of this year and April of last year.

Latest Inflation Numbers Released, Surprising Economists.  Inflation for consumers rose 0.3 percent in April for a 8.3 percent increase in the last 12 months — hotter than the 8.1 percent consensus prediction — as the Biden administration struggles to get a handle on the runaway price increases spurred by the president's policies.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors" to April's hotter than expected increase.  Excluding the food and energy indices, month-over-month inflation was up 0.6 percent, double the 0.3 percent increase reported for March.  The food index showed prices are up a staggering 9.4 percent over the last 12 months — the biggest year-over-year increase since the year ending April 1981 — its seventeenth consecutive monthly increase.

Worse Than Expected:  Consumer Prices Up 8.3% in April.  Inflation retreated in April but remained higher than forecast.  The Department of Labor said Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 8.3 percent compared with a year ago.  Prices were up 0.3 percent compared with the prior month.  This is the eleventh straight month of inflation above 5 percent.  Prices rose at an annual rate of 8.5 percent in March.  This was the month since September 2021 that the year-over-year inflation figure was not higher than the month earlier.

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs.  Inflation rose again in April, continuing a climb that has pushed consumers to the brink and is threatening the economic expansion, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday [5/11/2022].  The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 8.3% from a year ago, higher than the Dow Jones estimate for an 8.1% gain.  That represented a slight ease from March's peak but was still close to the highest level since the summer of 1982.  Removing volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI still rose 6.2%, against expectations for a 6% gain, clouding hopes that inflation had peaked in March.  The month-over-month gains also were higher than expectations — 0.3% on headline CPI versus the 0.2% estimate and a 0.6% increase for core, against the outlook for a 0.4% gain.

At last — a monthly forecast was accurate!
The U.S. Economy Added 428,000 Jobs in April, Unemployment at 3.6%, But Participation Rate Fell.  The U.S. economy added 428,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent, the Department of Labor said Friday [5/6/2022].  Economists had expected the economy to add 400,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to come in unchanged from the prior month at 3.6 percent.  The range of forecasts by economists surveyed by Econoday was between a gain of 300,000 to a gain of 500,000.

Trade Shock:  U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods Jumps 17.8% to Record $125.3 billion.  Economists had expected the U.S. trade deficit in goods to narrow to $105.0 billion in March after growing to a record-high $106.3 in February.  That turned out to be very far off-base.  The Census Bureau said Wednesday [4/27/2022] that the deficit in goods jumped 17.8 percent to a record $125.3 billion in March.  That broke February's record.  As the U.S. economy recovered rapidly from the pandemic and the Federal Reserve has begun raising interest rates, the dollar has strengthened against foreign currencies.  The dollar's strength against foreign currencies makes imports relatively cheaper.

U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit.  Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined at a 1.4% annualized pace in the first quarter, marking an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984, the Commerce Department reported Thursday [4/28/2022].  The negative growth rate missed even the subdued Dow Jones estimate of a 1% gain for the quarter, but the initial estimate for Q1 was the worst since the pandemic-induced recession in 2020.  GDP measures the output of goods and services in the U.S. for the three-month period.  Despite the disappointing number, markets paid little attention to the report, with stocks and bond yields both mostly higher.  Some of the GDP decline came from factors likely to reverse later in the year, raising hopes that the U.S. can avoid a recession.

CNBC - inflation unexpected
Oof!  That Didn't Age Well!  On July 23, 2020, CNBC published an article by Elizabeth Schulze headlined:  Here's why economists don't expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation.  That one didn't age well, did it?

Hold On To Your Wallets — 'Wrong Way' Krugman Says Inflation Will Soon Ease.  [Scroll down]  It's hard to keep up with all the times [New York Times columnist Paul] Krugman reassured us over the past year that inflation wasn't and wouldn't ever be a problem under Biden.  What Krugman actually wrote this Tuesday [4/12/2022] was that "inflation will probably fall significantly over the next few months."  Why?  Because, he now says, oil prices have moderated and retailers are "sitting on unusually large inventory.  Car lots are filling up; demand for trucking is falling quickly.  International shipping rates seem to be coming down."  We certainly hope Krugman is right ... for once.

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since 1981.  Prices that consumers pay for everyday items surged in March to their highest levels since the early days of the Reagan administration, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday [4/12/2022].  The consumer price index, which measures a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, jumped 8.5% from a year ago on an unadjusted basis, above even the already elevated Dow Jones estimate for 8.4%.  Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 6.5% on a 12-month basis, in line with the expectation.  However, there were signs that core inflation appeared to be ebbing, as it rose just 0.3% for the month, less than the 0.5% estimate.  That in turn sparked some hope that inflation overall was easing and that March might represent the peak.

With CPI now hitting 8.5%, Jen Psaki's bid to blame Putin gets old fast.  A stopped clock is right twice a day, and sure enough, that brings us to White House spokesweasel Jen Psaki.  The latter spoke the truth for once, at least on the words "extraordinarily elevated," now that the consumer price index (CPI) has been released, showing a higher-than-forecast 8.5% rise, and sure enough, for once she was right.

Somewhat off-topic:
Sunspot Activity on The Sun Is Seriously Exceeding Official Predictions.  Weather predictions here on Earth are more accurate than they've ever been; trying to predict the behavior of our wild and wacky Sun is a little more tricky.  Case in point:  according to official predictions, the current cycle of solar activity should be mild.  But the gap between the prediction and what's actually happening is pretty significant — and it's getting wider.  Sunspot counts, used as a measure for solar activity, are way higher than the predicted values calculated by the NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environmental Service.

UBS predicts inflation has peaked, but warns that March's consumer price index will still be really nasty.  On Wednesday [4/6/2022], UBS warned investors that the March inflation read, set to come out on April 12, will likely be pretty ugly.  That's saying something considering the Consumer Price Index (CPI) already hit a four-decade high in February. [...] Over a large part of the past year, UBS's inflation forecasts were well above consensus expectations on Wall Street.  And so far, they've been right.  Inflation data has repeatedly surprised to the upside, moving to highs many experts — including those at the Federal Reserve — simply weren't predicting.

March Jobs Report Shows Increase of 431,000 Jobs Added.  My apologies in getting late to this but the BLS has completely revamped the way they calculate employment and all of the familiar data tables are revised.  So, it takes a little longer to get to cut through the clutter and get to the data that matters.  Overall, the BLS report shows 431,000 jobs regained in March from the government closures during the pandemic.  Despite the job regain number being less than expected, it's not bad at all.

Somewhat related:
The Unexpectedly Long War.  It was a tale of two blunders.  Both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin made the mistake of believing that the Russian army could conquer Ukraine in two days.  The New York Times wrote in perplexity, "In Afghanistan, intelligence agencies had predicted the government and its forces could hold on for at least six months after the U.S. withdrawal.  In Ukraine, intelligence officials thought the Russian army would take Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, in two days.  Both estimates proved wrong."

Does Anyone Believe Biden's 'Rescue' Plan Worked — Besides Biden?  "Few pieces of legislation have done more in a critical moment in our history to lift us out of a crisis."  That was how President Joe Biden, early in his State of the Union address, described the $2 trillion "American Rescue Plan."  It's hard to know where to begin in unpacking why this is so incredibly wrong. [...] First, the country wasn't in an economic crisis.  Not by a long shot.  When Biden signed his deficit-financed spending spree into law, he did so more than a year after the recession had ended, and almost at the exact moment that GDP had regained all the ground it lost during the pointless COVID lockdowns.  Unemployment was plunging — much faster than expected — and prices were steady.  And even some prominent liberals warned at the time that dumping $2 trillion in borrowed cash onto a fast-growing economy would spark a surge in inflation.  What's more, the economy has been underperforming ever since Biden enacted his "rescue," as each month brings another "unexpected" miss.

Inflation skyrockets to 40 Year high:  Prices soar by 7.5% in the highest spike since 1982.  The U.S. inflation rate hit a 40-year high in January, with prices rising 7.5 percent from last year, the Labor Department announced on Thursday [2/10/2022].  It's the highest spike in consumer goods prices since February 1982, and a certain blow to President Joe Biden's standing with American voters less than a year before the crucial midterm elections.  Even members of his own party are distancing themselves from the economic disaster, with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin taking a veiled swipe at the White House for seeming to 'think that spending trillions more of taxpayers' money will cure our problems.'  Biden released a statement acknowledging the 'elevated' numbers in Thursday's report but continued to insist it would ease by the end of the year.

Inflation hits another 40-year high as consumer prices surge to 7.5%.  Inflation ran red-hot again in January, with consumer prices surging to a fresh four-decade high of 7.5%, the feds said on Thursday [2/10/2022].  The latest spike — which jumped past economists' expectations for a 7.2% jump — marked the highest annual increase since February 1982 for the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, a closely tracked inflation gauge that details the costs of goods and services such as food, gas and rent.  "Increases in the indexes for food, electricity, and shelter were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a release.

Inflation surges 7.5% on an annual basis, even more than expected and highest since 1982.  Consumer prices surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.  The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared with a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday [2/10/2022].  That compared with Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge.  It was the highest reading since February 1982.

ADP Reporting a Massive Loss in January Jobs of 301,000.  The business and financial wires are melting down today as ADP Payrolls, the nation's largest private sector payroll providing service, releases data from January showing a drop of 301,000 jobs.  The financial, economic and business pundits are completely caught off guard and using the words "shocked", "unexpected" and "surprised," within their analysis.  These employment numbers just don't align with an economy growing at 6.9%, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  However, for CTH readers who have carefully scrutinized the economic claims and looked at the bigger picture through the prism of kitchen table checkbook economics, these results are not a surprise.

U.S. Lost 301,000 Jobs in January vs. Predicted 200,000 Gained.  Payroll firm ADP says the US lost more than 300,000 jobs in January, and omicron is taking the blame.  December's impressive jobs gains were also revised downwards.  "Unexpectedly" is the code word once again, as Wall Street had predicted the economy would produce 200,000 new jobs instead.  January is the first month since December 2020 that the economy has lost jobs.  Despite White House boasts that 2021 produced more jobs than any other year, we're still more than 3.5 million jobs shy of where the economy was in February 2020, before the demonstrably useless COVID shutdowns.

US companies unexpectedly slash jobs in January as omicron surge batters economy.  U.S. companies unexpectedly cut jobs in January for the first time in a year, as a surge in the highly contagious omicron coronavirus variant battered the labor market's recovery from the pandemic, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.  Companies shed 301,000 jobs last month, sharply missing the 207,000-job gain that economists surveyed by Refinitiv had predicted and a major drop from the downwardly revised gain of 776,000 in December.  It marked the first time that ADP reported negative growth since December 2020, when companies shed 123,000 jobs before the vaccines were available.

The White House Signals the Coming Jobs Report Is Going to Be Apocalyptic.  How bad will the January 2022 jobs report be next week when it's released on Friday?  We may have some indication of that based on how the White House is already previewing its talking points for the press.  During her daily press briefing, Jen Psaki, fresh off mocking those who have concerns about rising crime, felt the need to give an unprompted mention of the unreleased numbers.  In it, she oddly cited the number of people who called out sick during January due to COVID-19 as a preemptive excuse for what is to come.

Sketchy Economic Data About to Surface, White House Proactively Seeds MSM Narrative.  For those who have been following closely, the economic data releases over the past several months have been almost impossible to reconcile from a Main Street perspective.  Additionally, the scale of inflation is skewing everything that stems from dollar valuation.  CTH is certain the fourth quarter GDP statistic (+6.9%) is useless and was an outcome of several flawed metrics:  (1) the import data was misrepresented and not accurately deducted (supply chain issue); (2) the value of building inventories was over calculated as an outcome of inflation; and (3) the value of all economic activity was subsequently skewed because the economic outputs (goods and services) were recorded at higher prices.  It has been our estimation that Main Street economic activity was substantially less than the data discussed by financial pundits.  Our review also sees the employment situation on Main Street as considerably less optimistic than claimed.

U.S. Economy Slows to 'Near Standstill' as Omicron, Supply Chain Delays, and Inflation Surge.  Economic growth in the United States slowed sharply in the first weeks of the year due to supply chain disruptions, high prices, and labor shortages linked to the surge in Covid-19 infections, according to data from a purchasing managers survey released Monday.  The U.S. IHS Markit flash composite purchasing managers index, one of the first comprehensive looks at economic growth this year, fell to 50.8 in January from 57.0 in December, severely undershooting expectations and signaling almost no growth in the economy.  Economists had forecast a reading of 56.7.

American retail sales were surprisingly dreadful in December.  Consumers are getting grumpy about inflation, Omicron and a host of other challenges.  That's not a good sign for the US economy.  Americans shopped less in December, causing the first drop in retail sales since the summer.  Sales dropped 1.9% compared with November, adjusted for seasonal swings, the Census Bureau reported Friday [1/14/2022]. [...] Online retail witnessed a sharp 8.7% drop last month, likely because people shopped earlier for the holidays after stores and brands warned of possible shortages and delivery delays in the fall.

December jobs report is the worst of 2021 as US creates just 199,000 new payrolls during Omicron chaos.  The US added 199,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday [1/7/2022].  Economists surveyed by Bloomberg held a median forecast of 450,000 added jobs.  The print reveals hiring slowed in the final weeks of 2021 as coronavirus case counts swung higher and fueled new concerns for the still-incomplete recovery.  November job growth was revised to 249,000 jobs from 210,000, according to the report.  The latest count marks the worst month of job creation since December 2020, when the country shed 306,000 payrolls.

Economy falls flat of expectations for second straight month with 199,000 jobs added.  The economy added 199,000 new jobs in December, fewer than expected.  The unemployment rate declined to 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.  The new numbers come after the economy also performed worse than expected in November, adding just 210,000 new jobs, far less than the half-million that were anticipated.

Black-White Unemployment Gap Soars as Black Unemployment Rate Jumps.  The United States saw the widest gap in unemployment rates for African Americans and whites in years at the conclusion of the first year of Biden's presidency, underscoring an uneven recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and the Biden administration's failure to meet its promises to foster racial equity in the economy.  The jobless rates for whites fell half a percentage point to 3.2 percent, while the rate for blacks rose from 6.7 percent to 7.1 percent, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

Sales for New Homes Underperform in New Report by Census Bureau.  Sales numbers for new homes in November have shown a fall of about 14 percent compared to the previous year.  The rising prices are attributed to low inventories of existing homes, a shortage of building materials, and persistent supply chain disruptions.  Although the sales for new homes have risen 12.4 percent from October, it is a significant downward revision of October 2021 numbers from 745,000 to 662,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau count.  November new-home sales of 744,000 fell below analysts' expectations of around 766,000, based on the latest report published Thursday [12/23/2021].

Lower Than Expected November Retail Sales Shows Inflation Impact and Reduction in Consumer Spending.  The Commerce Department November retail sales data was release today.  The top line issue is a shocking drop in retail sales for November in key categories that align with previous discussion of inflation spending priorities for all U.S. consumers.  Before getting to the data, one point is critical to remember.  The commerce department sales figures are based on dollars spent.  This point is important, because the items being purchased have inflation within them.  When prices are higher due to inflation, sales figures should be higher due to higher prices.  Ex.  If there is an 8% increase in retail price, but only a 4% increase in retail sales, that means less stuff is being sold.

While Joe Biden Sleeps, Putin Prepares to Grab Ukraine.  Joe Biden tried to make the best of the latest awful economic report the other day.  Reading what he'd been told, the president claimed wishfully, "Our jobs recovery is going very strong."  Remember now, this is the guy who 11 years ago promised hundreds of thousands of "shovel-ready jobs" that didn't actually show up until someone else was president.  The newest labor statistics actually showed that businesses created only 210,000 new jobs last month, about one-third the number expected.

Job growth disappoints in November, with a gain of just 210,000, despite high hopes.  The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, in a sign that hiring started to slow even ahead of the new Covid threat, the Labor Department reported Friday [12/3/2021].  Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 210,000 for the month, though the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.2% from 4.6%, even though the labor force participation rate increased for the month to 61.8%, its highest level since March 2020.  The Dow Jones estimate was for 573,000 new jobs and a jobless level of 4.5% for an economy beset by a chronic labor shortage.

US Employers Added 210,000 Jobs in November, Less Than Half of Estimates.  U.S. employers added a paltry 210,000 jobs in November, sharply below consensus forecasts of 550,000 and more than half as many as in October, though the underwhelming job creation numbers triggered Wall Street stock futures to shoot up, as investors bet it would ease pressure on the Fed to accelerate its timetable for scaling back stimulus.  The Labor Department's jobs report, released Dec. 3, shows that non-farm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November after rising by a revised 546,000 in October.  The unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 4.2 percent, a 21-month low, while the total number of unemployed persons fell by 542,000 to 6.9 million.  The labor force participation rate, a measure of people working or actively looking for work, edged up 0.2 percentage points to 61.8 percent, the report also showed.  While that's an improvement over October's rate, it remains a historically depressed level.

November hiring report shows just 210,000 new jobs, a fraction of what was expected.  The new jobs added in the United States during November totaled only 210,000, not even half of the 550,000 economists expected, according to a Fox Business report on Friday [12/3/2021].  Describing the situation as a stumbling in the nation's hiring, the report said job growth "significantly undershot expectations."  A report from the Labor Department said payrolls rose by a number far below that expected.  "The unemployment rate (which is calculated based on a separate survey) dropped more than expected to 4.2% from 4.6% — the lowest level since the pandemic began," the report said.

Kevin Hassett:  Biden is making policy errors never seen before by economists.  President Biden will sign the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill into law during a ceremony at the White House on Monday while Democrats try to muster enough votes to get another massive social spending bill to his desk.  Kevin Hassett, a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and former senior economic adviser to President Trump, discussed Biden's ambition on "The Ingraham Angle."  [Video clip]

Inflation hits 30 year high to become Biden's latest crisis; Manchin says DC 'can no longer ignore' pain.  Inflation has officially become the latest crisis to hit the Biden administration as U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace in more than 30 years, squeezing American families on food, gas, and energy just before the holidays hit.  A myriad of woes are afflicting Biden as the supply chain bogs down and shortages become prevalent in America.  Many experts contend that the current inflation is not "transitory" as Biden asserts and have severe doubts about his claim that the Build Back Better agenda will alleviate inflation.  The consumer price index rose an astonishing 6.2% year over year in October, according to the Labor Department.  That is the largest annual gain since November of 1990.  Prices reportedly jumped 0.9% month over month.

Annual inflation hits 30-year high, 6.2 percent in past year.  Consumer prices grew far faster than expected in October, according to data released Wednesday [11/10/2021] by the Labor Department.  The consumer price index (CPI), which tracks inflation for a range of staple goods and services, rose 0.9 percent last month and 6.2 percent in the 12-month period ending in October, the highest rate in the U.S. in 30 years.  Analysts broadly expected the CPI to rise by 0.5 percent last month, up from a gain of 0.4 percent in August, and 5.8 percent over the past year.  The sharp jump in the inflation rate is a dismal sign for President Biden and Democrats as they face growing pressure over rising prices.  Despite strength across the economy, the president's approval rating has fallen steadily since spring due in part to growing political backlash over higher food and gas prices.

Consumer Debt Explodes Higher as Americans Grapple with Bidenflation.  Consumer borrowing accelerated by far more than expected in September, as American households dealt with rising prices by swiping their credit cards and taking out more loans.  Total consumer credit increased $29 billion, up from a $13.8 billion gain in August, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Friday [11/5/2021].

A rare departure from the pattern:
Economy beats expectations with 531,000 jobs in October, unemployment declines to 4.6%.  The economy added 531,000 new jobs in October, more than expected.  The unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.  The new rate marks the lowest level since March of last year, right as the pandemic began to take hold and restrictions went into effect.

US economy ground to a halt in 3d quarter.  Net of inventory accumulation, real GDP for the third quarter was slightly negative, US government data released Thursday morning show.  Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2%, below the forecasters' consensus of 2.6%, the Commerce Department reported.  But a jump in inventories added 2.07 percentage points annualized to GDP.  That's more than the reported growth.  That's a very odd number, considering that the inventory-to-sales ratio of US business stands at the lowest level on record, due to supply-chain constraints that prevent businesses from restocking.  It's likely that the inventory number was exaggerated.  If that's true, the US economy shrank during the third quarter.

Hint:  It's the Sunshine State.
How did Florida end up with one of the best COVID-19 case and death rates in the US despite Gov Ron DeSantis refusing to implement mask or vaccine mandates?  Just two months ago, Florida was experiencing the worst COVID-19 surge in the United States. [...] The Sunshine State had the highest seven-day average of cases per day as well as the highest hospitalization rate in the country.  Despite these grim metrics, Governor Ron DeSantis did not issue new lockdowns, closures or stay-at-home orders, arguing that the spike was due to a seasonal pattern of the virus and urging residents to get vaccinated.

Consumer prices rise 5.4% on year, highest inflation in 13 years.  Consumer prices rose 5.4% for the year ending September, according to a report by the Department of Labor released Wednesday, the highest pace of inflation since 2008.  Forecasters had expected a 5.3% increase.  "While some of the so-called transitory factors like used car prices, airfares, and apparel continue to ease after sharp run-ups in earlier months, inflation is broadening out," said Greg McBride, Bankrate senior analyst.  "Food and shelter increases together contributed more than half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the CPI.  With home prices soaring and rents surging, this may just be the tip of the iceberg."

More Bad Policies and Government Spending Will Worsen Labor Shortage.  The September employment report released on Oct. 8 showed a modest employment gain, with 194,000 new jobs added, and a drop in unemployment from 5.2% in August to 4.8%.  What appears to be good news in the report — a 0.4 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate to 4.8% — is not all positive news.  The decline is due in part to 183,000 people dropping out of the labor force as opposed to unemployed workers finding new jobs.  This is also the second month in a row of lackluster job gains that have fallen about 700,000 below expectations.

Biden Badly Misses Expectations Again With New Jobs Report.  There's a four-word expression that seems to be used a lot when it comes to Joe Biden and, in particular, his actions when it comes to the economy — fails to meet expectations.  How many times have we heard this when talking about the jobs report under Biden?  Well, here we are again.  It's October and now the September numbers are in and they "fail to meet expectations."

US jobs report falls short again with employers adding just 194,000 jobs in September compared to the estimated 500,000.  Just 194,000 jobs were added to the payroll in September, falling far short of the 500,000 that were expected, and offering one of the most dismal outlooks from a US jobs report all year.  Monthly job growth this year has averaged 561,000.  Supply chain bottlenecks and Covid-19 contributed to the unimpressive numbers.

Key Inflation Measure Soars to 30-Year High.  The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy costs, soared to a 30-year high in August.  The measure increased 0.3 percent for the month and was up 3.6 percent from last year in its steepest climb since May 1991, a trend suggesting that the pandemic's inflationary pressures, catalyzed by massive government spending, supply chain bottlenecks and surging demand, are not correcting as quickly as some economists anticipated.

US jobless claims rise for third straight week as layoffs persist.  The economic recovery in the United States is still on track, but the labour market is signalling that growth is decelerating in the face of challenges ranging from the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 to stingier jobless benefits.  Weekly jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, rose by a stronger-than-expected 11,000 last week to 362,000, the US Department of Labor said on Thursday [9/30/2021].  That is the third week in a row that initial claims have increased, and the highest reading since early August.

New jobless claims unexpectedly rise to 351K amid Delta variant concerns.  The number of Americans newly seeking jobless benefits unexpectedly rose again last week amid ongoing concerns over the surge in COVID-19 cases driven by the Delta variant, the feds said Thursday [9/23/2021].  Initial filings for unemployment benefits, seen as a proxy for layoffs, rose to 351,000 last week, up 16,000 from the prior week's revised level of 335,000, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected to see weekly new claims drop to 320,000.

Weekly Jobless Claims Jump to Highest Level in a Month, Far Exceeding Expectations.  First-time filings for unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level in a month last week, coming in well ahead of the 320,000 claims that Dow Jones predicted.  With 351,000 jobless claims, the week ending September 18 saw the highest total claims since the week of August 21, the Labor Department reported Thursday.  The figure marked a climb from the previous week's upwardly revised 335,000 claims.

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise for [the] Second Straight Week.  New claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, the second consecutive week of climbing claims.  The Department of Labor said that there were a seasonally adjusted 351,000 initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the week ended September 18, up from 335,000 in the previous week.

Joe Biden Is a Total Failure.  The shortfall of 500,000 in the expected net new job figures for August shows that stagflation is upon us: employers are afraid to hire employees as they normally would coming out of the COVID recession because they don't know if they will be able to afford them.  Hourly pay scales are increasing at 7.5 percent, new car prices at 10 percent, rental accommodation at 12 percent, and new homes at 20 percent, all well ahead of the official rate of inflation, contrary to the smug assurances of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and even some Federal Reserve spokespeople, that inflation was a mere bubble.

Biden's Job Report Misses Expectations By Astonishing Amount, One of Worst Job Reports in History.  If there was a competition for the worst president in United State's history, President Joe Biden would be winning it.  According to the August job report from the Labor Department, the U.S. economy added a measly 235,000 jobs after analysts expected 740,000 jobs to be added to the economy for the month of August.

US added just 235,000 jobs in August compared to the 700,000 predicted with the Delta surge undermining economic recovery.  The U.S. job market saw hiring slow to 235,000 jobs in August, a sharp drop off after two strong months with the Delta variant of the coronavirus to blame.  Still, President Joe Biden said it represented good news.  'What we're seeing is an economic recovery that is durable and strong.  The Biden plan is working, we're getting results,' he said at the White House Friday morning.

Jobs Numbers for August Reveal the Extent of Biden's Incompetence and Failure.  Democrats have spent trillions of dollars pouring massive amounts of cash into the economy hoping to jumpstart recovery from the pandemic-induced recession.  But a large part of the economy is based not on dollars and cents but on expectations.  You can have all the demand you can handle, the government can continue to throw money at the American people like clowns tossing candy at the Shriners' parade, but none of it matters if expectations don't match what's happening on the ground.  American businesses are not confident of the future.  If they were, they would have created more than the dismal 235,000 jobs in August that the Bureau of Labor Statistics says they did.

Private payrolls increase by just 374,000 in August, far short of the 600,000 estimate, ADP says.  U.S. companies created far fewer jobs than expected in August as the Covid resurgence coincided with cutbacks in hiring, according to a report Wednesday from payroll services firm ADP.  Private payrolls rose just 374,000 for the month, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 600,000 though above July's 326,000, which was revised downward slightly from initial 330,000 reading.

Consumer prices rise 5.4% annually in July.  U.S. consumer price gains remained hot as the economic recovery continued to take hold.  The Labor Department said Wednesday that consumer prices rose 5.4% year over year in July, matching the prior month's gain as the fastest since August 2008.  Prices increased 0.5% last month, slowing from June's 0.9% increase.  Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting a 0.5% gain.

How do you expect 8.5% and get 6.3%?  The latest GDP report will not help President Biden's approval numbers.  This is the story:  Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic performance — grew at a 6.5% annual rate during the second quarter, according to an advance estimate released Thursday by the Commerce Department.  Analysts surveyed by Refintiv were expecting 8.5% growth.  First-quarter GDP was revised down to 6.3% from its previous reading of 6.4%.  The above-trend growth in the second quarter reflected the continued reopening of the U.S. economy and government support via business loans, stimulus checks, and extended unemployment benefits.  Thursday's report offers "more evidence that stimulus provided surprisingly little bang for its buck, with the economy quickly pushing against unexpected supply constraints instead, which have driven inflation higher," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Biden's 'Accomplishments' So Far:  A Troubling Tale In 8 Charts.  The news Thursday [7/29/2021] that the GDP gained 6.5% in the second quarter (the first full quarter since Biden signed his American Rescue Plan) is good.  But it is well below economists' forecasts.  The Blue Chip Consensus forecast was above 9%, and other surveys pegged Q2 growth at 8.5%.  It was also just barely above the gain in Q1 — which was before any of Biden's policies had taken effect.  Still, other things are on the rise under Biden, too, many of them well above expectations.  The misery index is up, for example, so is inflation, pessimism, and financial stress.

U.S. GDP rose 6.5% last quarter, well below expectations.  The U.S. economy rose at a disappointing rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in a sign that the U.S. has escaped the shackles of the Covid-19 pandemic but still has more work to do.  Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced during the April-to-June period, accelerated 6.5% on an annualized basis.  That was slightly better than the 6.3% gain in the first quarter, which was revised down narrowly.

U.S. jobless claims show surprise gain, well above expectations.  Weekly jobless claims unexpected moved higher last week despite hopes that the U.S. labor market is poised for a strong recovery heading into the fall.  Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 419,000 for the week ended July 17, well above the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate and more than the upwardly revised 368,000 from the previous period, the Labor Department reported Thursday [7/22/2021].

Inflation climbs higher than expected in June as price index rises 5.4%.  Inflation surged in June at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years amid a burst in used vehicle costs and price increases in food and energy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday [7/13/2021].  The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year earlier, the largest jump since August 2008, just before the worst of the financial crisis.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 5% gain.  Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 4.5%, the sharpest move for that measure since September 1991 and well above the estimate of 3.8%.  On a monthly basis, headline and core prices rose 0.9% against 0.5% estimates.

Annualized Total Inflation Rises to 5.4 Percent and Climbing.  On July 4th, a little more than a week ago, the White House made the preposterous claim that holiday food was cheaper than last year.  Everyone who buys groceries knew that level of propaganda was unmitigated nonsense and the consumer pricing data released today shows exactly that.  According to the BLS, June prices jumped 0.9%.  Every month this year the CPI has been rising faster than the prior month, which essentially means inflation is rising at an ever-increasing rate.  Annualized inflation (June 2020 vs June 2021) now shows an overall inflation rate of 5.4%.  However, at a 0.9% monthly rate — if the level stabilizes — that means the real inflation rate is 10.8%  Yeah, that's a serious problem.

[The] Worst inflation in 30 years [is] even worse than it looks.  We've been warning that inflation would run out of control as multi-trillion-dollar federal stimulus crashed against broken US supply chains.  So-called "core" inflation (without food and energy) has increased at an annual rate of nearly 11% during the past three months, something the US hasn't seen since 1981.  The overall inflation rate briefly touched the 10% mark in 2005 and 2008 due to spikes in the oil price.  Bad as the headline numbers are, the actual situation is much worse.

Inflation accelerates to 5.4% in June as overheating fears swirl.  Consumer prices increased 5.4% for the year ending June, according to a report by the Department of Labor.  Forecasters had expected a 4.9% increase.  Tuesday's release, from the consumer price index, represents the highest rate of inflation since 2008.  "The outsized jump in June CPI continues to be driven by the same factors as the past few months," said Bankrate's chief financial analyst Greg McBride after the news.  "Used car and truck prices had the biggest one month increase in history, 10.5%, and are up 45% from one year ago."

Inflation surges as consumer prices leap 5.4 percent, biggest jump since 2008.  Inflation continued to surge in June, with consumer prices accelerating at the fastest pace in almost 13 years as the economy emerges from the pandemic, the feds said Tuesday [7/13/2021].  The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, which measures a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, jumped 5.4 percent in June from a year earlier.  That's higher than May's 5 percent year-over-year rise in prices, and the biggest 12-month rise since August 2008, just before the financial crisis sent the US into the worst recession it had seen since the Great Depression.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 5 percent spike in June.

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise to 373,000, as job growth slows.  Initial filings for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week, a possible hint that the rapid job growth seen in the first half of 2021 could face hurdles in the months ahead, the Labor Department reported Thursday [7/8/2021].  First-time jobless claims totaled 373,000 for the week ended July 3, compared with the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.  The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 364,000 to 371,000.

Tesla Delivers 201,250 Cars In Q2, Missing Estimates.  Tesla stock is mostly flat in the pre-market session after the company announced it delivered over 200,000 vehicles in Q2, the company said in a press release Friday morning.  Its exact deliveries for the quarter came in at 201,250.  The company produced 204,081 and delivered 199,360 Model 3/Y vehicles, the company said.  It produced just 2,340 Model S and Model X vehicles and delivered just 1,890 of them.

New jobless claims at 411,000, more than expected.  The number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell 7,000 last week to 411,000 the Labor Department reported on Thursday [6/24/2021].  The number of new jobless claims represents the number of people who filed for unemployment in the previous week.  Thursday's number was more than forecasters' expectations of 380,000 new claims.  The number is lower than the week before, which saw 418,000 filings.  Economists are keenly interested in these weekly jobless-claim reports given shortages of labor being experienced by various sectors of the economy.  Some believe that the difficulty of employers to find workers stems from the expanded federal unemployment benefits, which provide recipients with $300 per week stacked on top of what their state already provides.

Unemployment Numbers Just Surged Much Higher Than Economists Were Expecting.  Facts became an unwelcome thorn amid the Biden administration's rosy predictions of economic recovery Thursday [6/17/2021] as unemployment took an unexpected jump.  Despite hopes from the U.S. Department of Labor that initial unemployment claims would drop by a fraction of a percentage point last week, claims rose 10.2 percent instead, the department reported in a news release.  In raw numbers, initial unemployment claims had been expected to dip by 432 and instead rose by 37,174.

New jobless claims at 412,000, more than expected.  The number of new applications for unemployment benefits rose 37,000 last week to 412,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday [6/17/2021].  The number of new jobless claims represents the number of people who filed for unemployment in the previous week.  The new figure was more than forecasters' expectations of 359,000 new claims.  The number is also higher than the week before, which saw 375,000 filings.  Weekly jobless claims are being watched closely as the U.S. economy recovers because recent monthly jobs reports have been less than stellar and have added to concerns that the country could be in the throes of a labor shortage.

Joe Biden's Chief Handler Broadcasts the Idiocy of the Current Administration.  The White House is reeling after yet another sub-par jobs report dropped this week.  Having previously missed expectations by a whopping 700,000 in April, they managed to only come in at around 100,000 under in May; though, the big drop in the projection by the "experts" helped that equation (the projection 1,000,000 created in April vs. 650,000 for May).  But White House Chief of Staff Ronald Klain wants you to know that Joe Biden is doing so much better than the bad orange man.

The Jobs Report Is out and It's Not Good News for Joe Biden or the Country.  The May jobs report has been released, and as RedState speculated earlier in the week, it missed expectations by a sizable amount.  That follows on the heels of an absolutely disastrous April jobs report which saw an economy sputtering when it should have been roaring.  While the miss is less this time around, even left-leaning outlets like Axios can't avoid the top-line story here.

Jobs report misses estimates with 559,000 jobs added, unemployment rate falls to 5.8%.  U.S. employers added fewer than expected jobs last month as extended unemployment benefits encouraged workers to stay home.  Employers added 559,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said Friday, missing the addition of 650,000 jobs that analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting.  April's reading was revised higher by 12,000 to 278,000.  The unemployment rate, meanwhile, declined 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, its lowest since the pandemic caused businesses to shut their doors in March 2020.

Friday's Jobs Report May Blow Up Biden's Presidency.  Friday [6/4/2021], the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May's jobs report and it's expected to be "unexpectedly" bad.  Employers are still desperate for workers but workers are taking their own sweet time getting back to work.  The rate of people leaving unemployment is falling and a top Fed official is warning that the job numbers may look "odd."  Lingering restrictions on some businesses in some states — bars and restaurants, especially — are putting the brakes on the economic recovery.  It's like putting the gas pedal to the floor while engaging the emergency brake.  And some economists expect it to show up in Friday's report.  Where are all the jobs, Joe?  Whatever happened to "Build Back Better"?

Fed exec:  Get ready for another "odd or unusual" jobs report.  Hopefully, Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan just wants to perform some overzealous expectations-setting ahead of the May jobs report due on Friday.  But... probably not, considering the fundamentals haven't changed from April's stunning bust.  "All those tensions," Kaplan told a tech conference, "they're not actually going to go away even for the next jobs report."

Faster than expected inflation 'is actually a good sign,' White House official says.  On Thursday [5/27/2021], President Joe Biden traveled to Ohio to make the case that the economy is headed in the right direction.  "We've turned the tide," he told the crowd in Cleveland.  Shortly afterward, during an appearance on Yahoo Finance Live, one of his top economic advisers acknowledged that in areas like inflation and in the labor market, "there's going to be some bumps in the road" as the economy continues to right itself following the pandemic.  However, National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti also told Yahoo Finance that the recent inflation jump is actually a positive sign.  "The faster than expected increase in some of those prices is actually a good sign in the sense that it's a sign that the economy is recovering faster than a lot of people expected," he said.

JoeBamanomics, New Home Sales 'Unexpectedly' Drop in April, March Results Revised Sharply Lower.  As we have watched the economic conditions for Main Street businesses and blue-collar workers continue to worsen, the horizon grows ever more dark. [...] Some of the drop is likely attributable to low inventory in hot markets like Florida.  However, that said, inflation, high unemployment and lower wage rates are hampering the ability of blue collar workers to afford entry level homes.  Financial security is now a concern as real wages continue to drop and inflation bites hard into working class incomes.

US home construction falls a surprise 9.5% in April.  U.S. home construction fell a surprisingly sharp 9.5% in April and economists attributed that partially to builders who delayed projects because of a surge in lumber prices and other supply constraints.  The April decline left construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.57 million units, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.  That was down from a rate of 1.73 million units in March, which had been the best showing since homes were constructed at a rate of 1.74 million units in July 2006 at the peak of that decade's housing boom.

Biden Is Off to a Disastrous Start.  Economists expected the country to add about 1 million jobs in April, but we came up 800,000 jobs short.  March's gains were also revised down another 140,000.  Leftist pundits and wonks, as is their wont when Democrats hold power, were "perplexed" by the bad numbers.  And Biden is simply in denial.

History Suggests that America is Ripe for a Conservative Resurgence.  Recently reported employment numbers fell wildly below expectations for improvement in an economy that is being superheated by government stimulus.  It is also widely believed that lavish unemployment benefits are disincentivizing many Americans from returning to the workplace.  Prices, on the other hand, are skyrocketing, as we just experienced the highest level of inflation in over a decade.

Joe Biden is proving even more of a 'master of disaster' than Jimmy Carter.  US consumer confidence fell unexpectedly this month as rising prices, a hiring slowdown and energy uncertainty hit hard.  On Friday, the University of Michigan said its Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 82.8, from 88.3 in April.  Economists had predicted it would rise to 90.4.  It wasn't the first disappointment for prognosticators this month.  Economists expected the country to tack on 1 million jobs in April after seeing gains of 770,000 in March.  Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 266,000, as the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent.  And then it announced that consumer prices rose 4.2 percent year-over-year in April — far worse than economists had predicted.  It was the largest such jump since September 2008, when the financial crisis was at its height.  Oh, and core inflation rose 0.8 percent from March to April, the biggest rise in nearly four decades.

Liberals Should Learn From Weak Jobs Report That Incentives Matter.  "Experts" predicted 1 million jobs would be created in April.  The actual number fell far short, at 266,000.  Republicans warned that overly generous COVID-19 relief benefits create a disincentive to work. [...] When the numbers came in, Biden administration officials lacked no shortage of excuses.  Some potential workers, they argued, feared going back to work because of COVID-19; many schools had still yet to resume in-school learning, particularly burdensome for single parents; we're still early in the bounce back from the COVID-19-stricken economy; one month's worth of numbers does not a story tell; and employers just need to raise wages.  Labor Secretary Marty Walsh urged perspective:  "Well, you know, under normal circumstances, and certainly we're not living in normal circumstances, the 266,000 job gain a month is a good number.  Unfortunately, we're still in the midst of a pandemic."

War Of Words Over Inflation Stirs Questions for the Fed.  The war of words unleashed on Wall Street and in Washington by Wednesday's announcement of an unexpectedly high rate of consumer price inflation is escalating by the day.  Legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller had warned on Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal that the Fed was enabling fiscal and market excesses by not standing up to the political whims of Congress; he stated on CNBC that the Fed's overly accommodative monetary policies posed a risk to the status of the United States dollar as a global reserve currency.  Refuting such concerns, Paul Krugman asks today in his column for the New York Times whether President Biden should scrap his entire economic agenda merely because the spike in consumer prices as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was bigger than expected.  "OK, I'm being a bit snarky here, but only a bit," Mr. Krugman concedes.  Snarky is hardly the word for the crass deprecations he offers in his concurrent newsletter, wherein he notes "a lot of buzz around how the Fed's wanton abuse of its power to create money will soon lead to runaway inflation." The Nobel laureate dismisses fears of monetary debasement as being anchored in neither fact nor logic but rather attributable to an "infestation of monetary cockroaches."

Stumbling Along:  U.S. Consumer Confidence Crashes 'Unexpectedly'.  It didn't take an economist to predict that keeping several large states' economies closed, the federal government printing money faster than a counterfeiter rolling down the autobahn in a Lamborghini, and Biden deliberately strangling domestic energy producers in the name of his Green New Deal scheme, would bring about inflation.  I'm not an economist.  I anticipated it.  I bet every reader here did too.  What does it take to see this gigantic freight train barreling down the tracks straight at you?  Eyes and common sense.

Consumer Prices Increase 4.2% To The Highest Level Since 2008.  The consumer price index has jumped 4.2% over the last 12 months, the fastest pace of inflation since 2008, according to a Department of Labor report.  The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.8% between March and April, according to the Labor Department report released Wednesday morning.  Economists projected that the CPI increased by 0.2% last month and 3.6% over the 12-month period ending in April, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Battered Biden under siege as crises confound the White House.  Friday [5/7/2021] was supposed to be a glorious day for Biden.  The latest employment numbers were set to be released, and economists were gushing that a million new jobs had likely been created in April by exuberant employers and their newly vaccinated workers.  His team no doubt was prepared to unleash Biden to perform a little victory dance at the White House celebrating the stupendous number.  But the show had to be hastily revamped when the actual tally came in nearly three-quarters-of-a-million jobs lower than expected; just 266,000 jobs created and unemployment unexpectedly rising to 6.1%.  "You might think we should be disappointed," Biden said, which was indeed something people might think.  But the American Rescue Plan he signed into law in March "was designed to help us over the course of a year — not 60 days," he said.  Far from being a disappointment, a jobs report that included 734,000 jobs fewer than expected was good news.  "Today, there is more evidence our economy is moving in the right direction," Biden said.

Biden's Stale Rerun Of That '70s Inflation Show.  Seen inflation lately?  April consumer price inflation surged 4.2% over the last 12 months, four times higher than expected.  Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices for food and energy, posted its biggest monthly increase since 1981, for a gain of 3% over the last year and the biggest annual increase since 1996.  OK, our inflation is bad, but we're not quite at 1970s levels yet.  During that nasty decade the consumer price index averaged 7.25% annual growth.  Because of inflation, the '70s are nothing to wax nostalgic about.  Energy shortages, blocks-long lines at gas stations, soaring prices for homes, groceries, cars, and restaurant meals and everything in between made the decade a miserable one.

BLS and consumer price index:  Inflation is real, and it's spectacular.  "These are staggering numbers," CNBC's Rick Santelli, and while the direction was expected, the amplitude was very much a surprise.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an 0.8% jump in the Consumer Price Index for April, an annualized increase of 4.2%, far above expectations.  As Santelli explains, we're comparing year-on-year from the first full month of COVID-19 shutdowns, so some upward pressure is normal under the circumstances.

Grandpa Knew Best.  My grandpa once told me, "All my grandchildren were born smart.  The longer they go to school, the dumber they get."  I thought he was teasing, but now that I'm his age, I see his point:  You have to have spent a lot of time in school to be as dumb as the experts on everything including economics, energy policy, and even vote fraud. [...] Ask a first grader if he'd do his household chores if he got the same amount of money or even more from just sitting home and playing video games and you'd get the right answer:  No.  This is something that escapes the brain trust running this administration.  It also escapes the ninnies who write for corporate media.  The Jobs Report that came out this week was terrible, making widespread expectations by experts and the media the subject of well-deserved ridicule.

Biden's Jobs Report Was So Bad That CNBC Thought It Was A Typo.  President Joe Biden's most recent job's report was so bad that left-wing CNBC thought it was a typo.  I guess they are used to President Donald Trump's stellar numbers!  "Wow it just came across.  We have the number here.  Just came across.  Sorry about that it came across very quickly here.  It looks like 266,000.  It looks like it was a big disappointment at 266.  But maybe I have that wrong.  Let me double check the bureau website," the host said.

The Biden Economy Begins, And It Doesn't Look Pretty.  The latest jobs report shows that President Joe Biden is already leaving his imprint on the economy.  Job growth was "unexpectedly" slow, and unemployment climbed, despite a massive shortage of workers.  When the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the jobs numbers for April, the press seemed stunned.  Only 266,000 jobs were created, which is 800,000 below forecasts.  The job creation number for March had to be revised down by 146,000.  And unemployment ticked up for the first time since the lockdown.  The New York Times said that "Jobs Report Shows Surprising Slowdown in Hiring."  Another said "New Jobs Report Shocks Experts With Unexpected Hiring Lag."

Profiles in Really Bad Media Headlines:  Pre-April Jobs Report Edition.  The jobs report that was released today [5/7/2021] for the month of April was unquestionably bad, no matter how much of a rosy spin administration officials including President Biden himself tried to put on it.  Though reactions on social media to the report were mixed, with some on the left and in the media also doing their part to spin like tops, the one that pretty much said it all was from the CNBC crew that had the unenviable task of revealing the dismal numbers on live TV as they came in this morning.

Jobs Report Disaster:  Joe Biden Misses Goal of 2 Million Jobs Created in First 100 Days.  The White House prepared to celebrate a jobs-gained milestone of 2 million on Friday [5/7/2021] under President Joe Biden during his first 100 days — but those plans were shattered by the devastating jobs report for April.  Punchbowl News reported Friday morning that senior White House staffers were watching the jobs estimates of created 700,000 jobs, eager to promote the record number of jobs created during Biden's first 100 days.

US added just 266,000 jobs in April, far below 1 million expected.  The US added just 266,000 jobs in April — far below economists' expectations of 1 million — and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.1 percent, the feds said Friday [5/7/2021].  The lower-than-expected data comes on the heels of strong gains in March, which saw 770,000 jobs added, about 150,000 lower than initially estimated, according to revised data published Friday.  "Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers," according to Friday's closely watched jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The US unemployment rate rose slightly from 6 percent reported in March.  It remains far higher than the 50-year low of 3.5 percent reported in February before the pandemic gutted the economy.

April Jobs Report Falls a Stunning 800,000 Short of Expectations.  U.S. job growth for the month of April fell far below what experts had predicted, as data reported Friday showed an increase of 266,000 jobs, versus an estimate of 1 million — the largest miss relative to expectations since at least 1998.  Economists had suggested a positive outlook for the report, with the White House hoping for a gain of at least 700,000 jobs — making Joe Biden the first president ever to hit 2 million new jobs in his first 100 days.  But expectations came crashing back to reality with data showing an overestimation of nearly 800,000 — the worst miss in decades.

Media Misfire Wildly with Headlines Predicting 'Blockbuster Jobs Report'.  Confident that the Biden Administration's policies would produce a robust jobs report for April, liberal media ran headlines and stories promising job growth numbers that proved to exceed reality by more than seven hundred thousand, and as much as 1.7 million.  As reported, Friday's U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report reveals that the unemployment rate increased slightly in April as the ranks of the unemployed grew by 102,000, with the month's job growth failing to reach even half that of recent months.

Biden Bust:  Unemployment Rate Up, Numbers 'Way Worse Than Expected,' Inflation May Be Coming.  With the creation of multiple vaccines in historic time, the COVID-19 pandemic seemed close to being over, paving the way for rapid economic growth.  Unfortunately, the economy appears to be struggling under Joe Biden, based on the latest jobs report released Friday morning [5/7/2021].  The unemployment was expected to fall to 5.8% and the economy was predicted to add 978,000 jobs, but that didn't happen despite mass vaccinations and government stimulus.  Not by a long shot.  "The numbers are out, and on the top line they are way worse than expected," reported Bloomberg.  "Something seems very off:  only 266,000 jobs created in April, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1%, according to the report."

The Editor says...
Of course inflation is coming.  Joe Biden has been giving away money left and right — mostly left — and that money isn't backed by anything like gold or silver, so the inevitable result is inflation.

California reports first yearly population decline in its history, a drop of more than 182K people.  California's population fell by more than 182,000 people in 2020, marking the first year-over-year loss ever recorded for the nation's most populous state.  State officials announced Friday that California's population dipped 0.46% to just under 39.5 million people from January 2020 to January 2021.  The news comes one week after the U.S. Census Bureau announced a paltry population growth for California, resulting in the state losing a congressional seat for the first time because it grew more slowly than other states over the past decade.  But the census numbers reflect the state's population in April 2020.  The new state numbers released Friday reflect the state's population as of January 2021.

New Jobs Report Is the Worst Miss in History as Biden Administration Failures Mount.  The Biden Administration's latest failure has made history.  After economists predicted an addition of around one million new jobs to the economy, the actual number came in at a dismal 266,000.  That makes it the worst miss in history and an absolutely pathetic showing for Joe Biden's "build back better" strategy.

Joe Biden Voters Discover They Voted for Joe Biden.  This morning, the worst miss in the history of jobs reports was released, showing just 266,000 jobs added when over one million were projected to be added to the economy.  That's especially terrible given that we are in the midst of a recovery from an artificial depression.  Jobs are everywhere, and employers are basically begging people to come back to work with decent wages to boot.  But they aren't because the government decided it'd be a brilliant idea to extend the no-questions-asked unemployment benefits that started during the COVID pandemic last year through September.  That's absolutely idiotic given there is no shortage of jobs to fill in this country.

Economy falls far short of expectations with just 266,000 jobs in April, unemployment rate rises to 6.1%.  The economy added far fewer jobs than expected in April, just 266,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday [5/7/2021].  The jobs numbers indicate that the pandemic recovery is not proceeding nearly as fast as was hoped.  Forecasters had anticipated that the economy would add nearly 1 million nonfarm payroll jobs and that the unemployment rate would drop from March's 6% down to 5.8%.  "This might be one of the most disappointing jobs reports of all time," said Nick Bunker, who leads North American economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.  "The labor market needs to gain 8.2 million jobs to put us back where we were pre-pandemic, not accounting for the jobs that would have been created if the pandemic never happened.  Every month job gains don't accelerate puts us further behind."

Biden's 'Morning in America' moment sparks a furious debate.  [Scroll down]  The imminent enactment of Biden's American Rescue Plan comes as the economy is already showing signs of reviving with Covid vaccinations accelerating and states lifting more restrictions.  The economy created a surprisingly high 379,000 jobs in February, with expectations for much higher numbers ahead as bars and restaurants reopen and Americans begin to travel again in far higher numbers.

Biden's COVID-19 'Rescue' Plan Is Based On 5 Big Lies.  Joe Biden went on prime time this week to promote his COVID-19 plans.  For a guy who promises to be honest with the public, he's off to a terrible start.  Since mainstream media fact-checkers are now on their four-year vacation, we'll set the record straight on several key claims he made.  [#1] "You will see it very clearly if you examine what the twin crises of pandemic and this sinking economy have laid bare."  Sinking economy?  Where has Biden been for the past six months?  As the Bureau of Economic Analysis has already reported, the economy grew at a stunning 33.4% in the third quarter of this year — well above anyone's expectations.  The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow pegs growth in the fourth quarter at a very strong 7.4%.

Weekly initial jobless claims surge to 853,000 vs. 730,000 expected.  Initial jobless claims soared to 853,000 last week, as the surge in coronavirus cases pushed more businesses to implement stricter measures on social distancing, forcing more people out of their job.  More than 3,000 Covid-related deaths were recorded across the country Wednesday, according to an NBC News tally.  Economists had predicted the latest weekly jobless claims total would be around 730,000, higher than the prior week's newly revised tally of 716,000, but still more than four times the pre-pandemic average of 200,000.

WTI Slides After Bigger Than Expected Crude Build.  Oil prices ended flat on the day, bouncing back above $41 (after weak retail sales) on the back of OPEC+ headlines:  "All participating countries need to be vigilant, proactive and be prepared to act, when necessary, to the requirements of the market," the panel said in its closing statement after Tuesday's video conference.  Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said he could see a light at the end of the tunnel, but the market had some way to go before getting there (and we worry that is the oncoming train of global lockdowns crushing demand once again).

The U.S. Economy's Remarkable Recovery Continues As Biden Plans To Crush It.  Good news about the economy continued to pour in during Election Week.  Predictably, the nation's establishment press, obsessed with its self-appointed insistence that Joe Biden is the nation's president-elect, virtually ignored it.  On Nov. 6, the government's October jobs report revealed that the nation's unemployment rate dropped a full point to a seasonally adjusted 6.9 percent, while nonfarm payroll employment increased by 638,000.  The reported unemployment rate smashed expectations that it would only drop to 7.6 percent, while the employment increase beat expectations by 58,000.

Unemployment fell from 7.9% to 6.9% in October.  Lost in all the media manipulation of the election was a huge story.  President Donald John Trump once again set an economic record that the press has largely ignored.  In just 6 months, President Trump cut the unemployment rate by more than half.  Covid 19 pushed the unemployment rate from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February to an 80-year high of 14.7% in just 2 months.  A recovery that the experts said would take years or even a decade has taken just 6 months.

U.S. adds 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate drops to 6.9%, report.  The U.S. adds 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate drops to 6.9%, the federal government reported Friday [11/6/2020].  The number exceeded analysts predictions of roughly 530,000 new jobs.  The jobless rate dropped from from 7.9 percent, according the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.  The U.S. and global economies have struggled during the roughly eight months of the coronavirus pandemic.

US private employers add 365,000 jobs in October, missing expectations.  Private employers hired at a slower-than-expected pace in October, indicating the labor market's recovery from the coronavirus crisis is cooling, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday [11/4/2020].  The report showed that companies created 365,000 new jobs last month, sharply missing the 650,000-job increase that economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected.

U.S. Manufacturing At Highest Level Since 2018.  An incredible insight into the powerful and strong gains for U.S. manufacturing has been released by The Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers.  As reported by the Associated Press, the managers "said Monday that its manufacturing index rose by 3.9 percentage points to a reading of 59.3% last month, up from 55.4% in September."  The report claims October gains are "the highest level in two years" even with the coronavirus impeding the country.  "It was the highest level for this closely watched barometer of manufacturing health since September 2018.  Any reading above 50 signals that manufacturing is expanding" writes the AP.

The Results Are in:  Reopening Fuels Record Economic Expansion.  As the economic reopening continues in states and cities across the nation, economic growth last quarter smashed all prior records — growing by 7.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  If this blistering pace continued for an entire year, the economy would swell by 33.1%.  We still have a ways to go.  More than 10 million fewer individuals are employed right now compared to the start of the year.  Nevertheless, the progress is undeniable:  More than 11 million jobs have returned since April.

Yes, [the] Media Are Rigging [the] Election Against Half The Country.  Here's How.  [Scroll down]  Much of Trump's presidency was marked by significant growth of the economy.  Even after the global pandemic, which has wreaked havoc throughout the world, yesterday's explosive gross domestic product (GDP) numbers came in greater than expected.  The media responded by burying the story as much as possible, worried it would help Trump.

US economic growth shatters record at 33.1%, but fails to snap coronavirus recession.  The U.S. economy grew at a record-shattering pace in the third quarter as businesses reopened from the coronavirus shutdown, but the nation remains in a deep hole from the COVID-induced recession.  Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, surged by 33.1% on an annualized basis in the three-month period from July through September, the Commerce Department said in its first reading of the data Thursday.  The previous post-World War II record was a 16.7% increase in 1950.  Refinitiv economists expected the report to show the economy had expanded by 31%.

Economy grows record-shattering 33.1% from July to September — but is still in a deep downturn caused by coronavirus and lockdowns.  The U.S. economy experienced record growth in July, August and September of 33.1 percent, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced Thursday — a figure President Trump immediately touted as 'FANTASTIC!!!'  That was the fastest pace since the government started keeping records in 1947 and followed a historic shrinkage rate of 31.4% in the second quarter.  The record-making growth figure came as Trump was eager to out the economy in the final days of the election — although it follows a period of steep negative growth, with millions of Americans still filing for unemployment.

Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected, Insured Unemployment Craters.  The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell more than expected by 58,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 787,000 for the week ending October 17.  The previous week was revised down significantly by 56,000 to 842,000.  Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 915,000.  The consensus forecast was 865,000.  The 4-week moving average was 811,250, a decrease of 21,500 from the previous week, which was also revised down significantly by 33,500 from 866,250 to 832,750.

Unemployment rate slips to 7.9% in last jobs report before election.  Employers added 661,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate down to 7.9% from 8.4%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its latest employment report.  Friday's [10/2/2020] jobs report is the last one before the November presidential election.

Two October Surprises The Democrats Can't Do Anything About.  Joe Biden wants the public to think the country is falling apart under President Donald Trump.  COVID-19 is running rampant.  The economy is in shambles.  It's all Trump's fault. [...] But Biden will have to confront two major economic reports that both will provide very good news about the economic recovery from the pandemic shutdowns, which has been growing faster than economists had projected.  Both will come as surprises to a public that has been fed a steady diet of Democratic doom-and-gloom talking points.

Exceeding Expectations — ADP Payrolls Increase 749,000 in September — Matches Ground Activity.  The ADP private sector payroll report reflects continued rapid recovery from the regional COVID-19 shutdowns.  The monthly report shows gains of 749,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 650,000 forecast.  One of the key factors is the expiration of the disincentive via the federal COVID unemployment mechanism that provided an additional $600/month beyond normal earnings in the unemployment package.  This has been a topic of many coversations in my travels as working-class businesses have been having a hard time getting people to return to work.

Anyone Notice That The Trump Recovery Is Doing Much Better Than Expected?  A news report out on Monday [9/21/2020] said that 83% of companies in the S&P 500 beat expectations for earnings in the second quarter of the year, the first time that's happened in more than a decade.  That's been a common refrain over the past several months, as the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns has repeatedly outperformed what the "experts" expected.  Here's a sampling of headlines:
  •   "US economy added 1.8m jobs in July, beating expectations"
  •   "Jobs Numbers in July Beat Expectations for Third Straight Month"
  •   "Corporate Earnings Beat Analysts' Lowered Expectations"
  •   "US consumer sentiment hit a 6-month high in September, beating economist forecasts"
  •   "U.S. new home sales beat expectations in July"
In some cases, the difference between what economists were predicting at the start of the pandemic and what's actually occurred is stark.

Optimistic Recovery — Weekly Jobless Claims 860k, Lower Than Expected.  The U.S. Department of Labor has released weekly jobless claims totals showing an employment recovery effort still underway.  While the initial claims are 860,000 they are lower than expectations, highlighting positive job gains in the overall economy.

Media Pushes Unverified Gossip To Hide Trump's Amazing Economic And Foreign Policy Achievements.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced another historic month of job growth as the economy added 1.4 million jobs in August.  It was the fourth-best month of job growth on record dating back to 1939 (and likely ever), beaten out only by the preceding three months.  As a result, the country's unemployment rate dropped to 8.4 percent from its post-pandemic high of 14.7 percent.  Recall that in April the Congressional Budget Office forecast a 16 percent unemployment rate for the third quarter.  By historical measures — by any measure, really — this is a remarkable resurgence.

Number of Job Openings Rose Far More than Expected in July.  The number of job openings rose significantly more than expected in July, up to 6.6 million from an upwardly revised 6.0 million, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.  While hires fell to 5.8 million in July from a historically high level around 7.0 million over the last two months, total separations were largely unchanged at 5.0 million.

Jobs numbers show the 'second wave' hasn't stopped the economy.  When Nancy Pelosi sneaked into a San Francisco salon maskless for an illegal coiffing, it turns out that her actions reflected those of her fellow citizens across the country.  We refer not to the illegality of her actions — most people feel bound by and obey local laws — but to the fact that members of the public, like the speaker, refused to submit to perpetual lockdown.  Instead, regardless of how their state or local governments reacted to the second surge of coronavirus cases, people spent the month of August reopening and getting back to work.  In the end, 1.4 million more people were back on the job last month than in July.  But even more impressive was the unexpected plunge in the unemployment rate back down to the single digits — just 8.4%, down sharply from April's high of 14.7% — shows that nothing can keep this country's spirit down.

Trump's Recovering Economy Beats Expectations Again!.  President Donald Trump's economy has once again beaten expectations, this time with unemployment falling to single digits for the first time since COVID hysteria hit the country.  The U.S. economy also added another 1.37 million jobs in August as the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the first time it has been under ten percent since early this year.  Economists were a bit more dour with their predictions and had forecast a pick up of 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent.  Trump beat both of those predictions.

ABC News downplays good news in latest jobs report.  The latest unemployment report issued by the government was unexpectedly positive, but readers wouldn't know it from the tweet ABC News issued Friday morning [9/4/2020].  [Tweet]  While the tweet correctly noted the number of jobs added last month, it also said that the unemployment rate fell "slightly" to 8.4% from July.  Slightly?  In July ,the government reported that the unemployment rate was 10.2%.  Expectations by economists predicted that the August rate would be in the neighborhood of 9.8% which would qualify as a slight improvement.

Trump economy adds another 3.7 million jobs in August with 13.8 million total jobs recovered since April as rapid recovery continues.  The U.S. economy added another 3.7 million jobs in the month of August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey of Americans reporting they have jobs, bringing the total up to 13.8 million jobs that have been recovered since labor markets bottomed in April, something almost nobody but President Donald Trump was predicting.  The news comes as COVID-19 cases continue to stabilize nationwide, including in Texas, California, Florida and Arizona where cases saw a brief uptick this summer.  At the worst of the coronavirus recession, as many as 25 million jobs were lost by April, and now more thanhalf of those jobs have been regained, as a V-shaped recovery has clearly formed.

Better Than Expected!  U.S. Economy Added 1.37 Million Jobs in August, Unemployment Fell to 8.4%.  The U.S. economy added 1.37 million jobs in August and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, providing reassurance that the labor market has kept up some of its post-lockdown momentum.  Economists had forecast an addition of around 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent from 10.2 percent last week.

Unemployment plunged to 8.4% in August as the economy added 1.4M jobs.  The economy added 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell 1.8 percentage points to 8.4%, the Labor Department reported on Friday [9/4/2020], as hiring has slowed from prior months.  The report beat economists' expectations, which were for about 1.3 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 9.8%, although the job gains were boosted by temporary hiring for the Census.

ADP's Disappointing July Jobs Report Offset by June's Upward Revision.  ADP's National Employment Report was a massive miss.  Most private economists were expecting job growth in July to approach two million, as the economy continues to recover from the COVID shutdown.  Instead, ADP reported just 167,000 new jobs were created in July.  The miss, however, is likely to be offset when the Department of Labor reports on Friday, with expectations that it will show July job growth more in line with expectations of about two million.  ADP's miss was also softened by its revision upward of June's jobs numbers, from the 2.4 million new jobs it reported last month to 4.3 million as more accurate data became available.

U.S. stocks hits record high, ending shortest bear market in history.  Defying the coronavirus pandemic's mounting human and economic toll, stocks closed Tuesday at a record high, bringing an end to the shortest bear market in U.S. history.  After notching three consecutive weeks of gains, the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 3,389, gaining 0.2 percent on the day.  The finish capped a remarkable comeback from the March plunge that slashed 34 percent off the previous record, set Feb. 19, as the pandemic tightened its grip on the country.  Investors Tuesday [8/18/2020] brushed aside worries about the nation's continuing struggle to contain the pandemic, focusing instead on signs of strength in the housing and retail sectors.  Housing starts in July rose 22.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of nearly 1.5 million, the Commerce Department said.  Permits also rose sharply for both single- and multifamily dwellings.

More Good Economic News.  The July jobs report came out today [8/7/2020], and it exceeded Wall Street's expectations with 1.8 million new payroll jobs.  Unemployment dropped to 10.2%.  Together with job gains in May and June, 42% of the jobs that were lost in March and April have now been regained.  Democrats have been hoping that COVID shutdowns would cause enough pessimism about the economy to push them to victory in November.

July Jobs Report — 1.8 Million Jobs Recovered.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July jobs report earlier this morning.  Overall during this phase of the economic recovery the U.S. added 1.8 million jobs in July, with strong recovery in:  Leisure and Hospitality (+592k), Retail Trade (+258k) and professional and business services (+170k).  Strong steady gains continue in manufacturing, construction and transportation as more businesses begin to re-open and provide products and services into an economy with strong underlying demand.  Durable goods inventories are low, those need to be replaced.

U.S. Adds 1.8 Million Jobs, Unemployment Drops to 10.2 Percent.  The U.S. unemployment rate dropped from 11.1 percent to 10.2 percent in July, beating economists' predictions even as many states have paused or reversed their reopenings in light of coronavirus case spikes.  Employers added 1.8 million jobs in July, according to the Labor Department's Friday jobs report, a significant slowing down from the 4.8 million jobs created in June, which was the highest recorded.  While the economy has recovered 42 percent of the 22 million jobs it lost during the pandemic over the past three months, there are still 10.6 million more unemployed Americans today than there were in February.

Wholesale Prices Drop in June; Economists Confounded.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday [7/10/2020] that wholesale prices dropped by 0.2 percent in June.  Economists were expecting an increase of 0.4 percent.  Confounding those economists further, wholesale prices have dropped by nearly one full percentage point over the last year.  Common sense says that when the supply of money and currency increases, price increases are sure to follow.  And the money supply has certainly been increasing.  From the currency creator itself, the Federal Reserve, comes this:  In the last 12 months, from May 2019 through April 2020, the M1 money supply (cash plus checking accounts) has increased by 33.5 percent.

U.S. adds record 4.8 million jobs in June, Labor bureau reports.  The U.S. added 4.8 million jobs during the month of June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday [7/2/2020].  The unemployment rate fell to 11.1%.  The jobs figure exceeds the 3 million estimate from economists.

Republicans must hold firm and reject unemployment extension.  On July 9, weekly jobless claims slowed to 1.3 million.  While still high by historical standards, the number was lower than expected and well below the stunning 6.6 million claims filed in just one week of April.

Five Million Americans Back to Work in June.  Nearly five million Americans returned to work last month, new data released Thursday show, with unemployment numbers outpacing economists' projections for the second month in a row.  The overall unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, with drops in unemployment across all sexes and ethnic groups.

Jobs Not Mobs.  The jobs report released Thursday smashed expectations, with the creation of over 4.8 million new jobs in June.  That welcome news follows 2.5 million jobs added in May as the economy continues to rebound under Trump's leadership post-lockdown.  But that's not all.  After years of negotiations, the president just inked the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Monday, benefitting America's farmers and car manufacturers.  The International Trade Commission estimates it will create up to 589,000 new American jobs.

Jobs Report Shows Nearly Five Million Jobs Added in June.  The U.S. economy, recovering from the government-mandated lockdowns to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus, rebounded sharply in June, exceeding forecasters' expectations and confirming yesterday's report from ADP.  According to the Labor Department, the economy generated nearly five million jobs in June, as those mandates lifted and restaurants and bars reopened.  The unemployment rate dropped to 11 percent, down two percent from May and nearly half what it was in April.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by three million jobs.

Private Sector Employment Gains 2,369,000 Jobs in June, Historic Rebound in May.  The ADP National Employment Report found private sector employment increased by 2,369,000 jobs in June and the prior month was revised to show historic job gains.  The historic gains come after a historic loss in April. [...] While the headline number missed the forecast, a large and expected upward revision to the month prior more than makes up for the miscalculation.

Economy Gained 4.8 Million Jobs in June as Unemployment Rate Declines for Second-Straight Month.  The U.S. economy added nearly 5 million jobs in June, beating expectations for the second straight month as unemployment fell to 11 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday [7/2/2020].  Non-farm payrolls rose by a record 4.8 million for the month, with over 40 percent of that coming in 2.1 million new jobs for the leisure and hospitality industries.  The numbers are nearly double the gains in May, which saw 2.5 million jobs added.

Manufacturing Recovery Was Much Stronger Than Expected in June.  Factory activity in the U.S. surged higher than expected in June, suggesting that the broader economy grew for the second consecutive month after April's contraction.  The Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity jumped 9.5 percentage points to 52.6 in June.  The gauge of new orders rose 24.6 points to 56.4, the largest ever monthly increase.  The production component of the index also rose by more than 24 points to 57.3.

New Home Sales Skyrocket 16.6% Blowing Past Expectations.  New home sales jumped a whopping 16.6% in May, blowing past the estimates of a 2.9% rise.  The May increase in sales is nearly 13 percent higher than the same month one year ago.  Home sales are a key indicator of economic health because purchases of homes requires (1) income, a stable job; and (2) an optimistic financial outlook from the buyer.

Retail Sales Jump Nearly 20% In May, Economy Shows Signs Of Resurgence.  Retail sales had an incredible rebound in May, according to economic experts, charging up 17.7% as stores and other businesses reopened following coronavirus-related lockdowns.  The Trump administration has been touting a possible "v-shaped" economic recovery for weeks as initial unemployment claims have begun to taper off and Americans leave their homes and re-enter society for the first time following months of pandemic-related isolation.  Many key economic indicators are beating expert projections, leading the White House to suggest that the American economy may be swiftly bouncing back from its sudden — but largely unavoidable — recession.

Advance Retail Sales Soar 17.7% in May, Largest Monthly Gain Ever.  The U.S. Census Bureau reported advance retail sales came in at $485.5 billion in May, soaring a record 17.7% (± 0.5%) and recovering more than the loss in April.  While still down 6.1% (± 0.7%) from the year-ago level, it's the largest monthly gain ever on record and far better than economists expected.

New York Manufacturing Index "Unexpectedly" Surges.  The U.S. media are in ideological alignment with blue state governors and congressional democrats to hype COVID-19 panic as a method to keep the economy from reopening.  To advance this narrative the crowds during mass protects they approve of are ignored; but any crowd at an event they do not align with is used to push panic.  Everyone can see this.  The New York manufacturing index shocked everyone earlier today [6/15/2020] showing a strong rebound.  The index "unexpectedly" surged 48 points in June surprising all economic forecasters.

Shocked Reactions to Stupendous May Jobs Report.  There was quite a bit of shock today [6/5/2020] when it was announced that the unemployment rate declined in May despite most economists predicting it would rise to 20%.  Here are a few shocked reactions to the May jobs report.  My favorite reaction is from the angry guy who is whining that the unemployment really rose but that the stats were faked by the Labor Department.  [Video clip]

Signs the economy will escape the worst-case pandemic scenario.  The economy won't suffer the worst-case scenario following the pandemic, if the most recent signs are predictive.  Employers added 2.5 million jobs in May, the Labor Department reported Friday [6/5/2020] in a report that shocked forecasters, who expected millions more in job losses.  The details of the report suggest that workers who were laid off as social distancing began are beginning to get rehired and that aspects of the government effort to keep them connected to their old jobs are working.

Unemployment Falls to 13.3% and Economy Adds 2.5 million Jobs.  The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent and payrolls unexpectedly rose by 2.5 million workers as the easing of restrictions on business activity and government aid led to new hiring in May.  The U.S. unemployment rate fell below last month's record-high 14.7 percent, which was the highest on record in data going back to 1948. [...] Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to nearly 20 percent and the economy to shed an additional 8 million jobs.

May's unemployment report was stunning — here's what happened, and why economists got it wrong.  Most economists expected May's jobs report to be a disaster, possibly even the worst on record.  Instead, the Labor Department reported Friday morning that employers actually added 2.5 million jobs last month — easily the most ever created in a one-month period — and the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 percent. [...] What happened, and why did economists get it so wrong?

The Trump recovery is ahead of schedule.  President Trump claimed vindication Friday as a surprise positive jobs report previewed what he called the "greatest comeback in American history" for a coronavirus-crippled economy — and perhaps for his own reelection campaign.  Unemployment dropped to 13.3% in May as the economy added 2.5 million jobs, the Department of Labor reported.  Forecasters had expected a loss of 8 million jobs and an unemployment rate of 20%.  Trump himself might not have been expecting such success so soon.

Best news yet of 2020: Signs America's bouncing back fast.  Just when it felt like the country was completely falling apart comes great news:  surprising, unprecedented job growth along with clear signs that the national pandemic has ebbed far from its peak.  This doesn't resolve the convulsions following the killing of George Floyd, but at least America is finally starting to put the previous crisis behind.  Even as much of the nation has begun to reopen, economists predicted that the May jobs numbers would continue to depress.  Many predicted US unemployment to reach Depression-era levels of around 20 percent.

Donald Trump Celebrates Unexpected Jobs Jump.  President Donald Trump on Friday celebrated a new jobs report showing better-than-expected economic numbers in the month of May. [...] The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May from a record high of 14.7 percent in April and payrolls unexpectedly rose by 2.5 million workers.  Economists estimated the unemployment rate would rise to nearly 20 percent in May and that the economy would shed an additional 8 million jobs.

Unemployment rate falls to 13.3 percent as economy gains surprise 2.5 million jobs despite coronavirus.  The U.S. economy gained 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3 percent.  That's down from 14.7 percent in April, according to the monthly employment report released Friday [6/5/2020] by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

WaPo Get Blasted for Pre-Writing Doom and Gloom Story About Job Numbers, Busted When Real Numbers Come Out.  Does the media hope that the economy continues to be bad as we start to come out of the pandemic and people are beginning to go back to work in some areas?  It sure seems like they'd rather that we continue to have an issue with the economy.  Probably right up to November.  How do we know?  It appears The Washington Post already had their story pre-written about the expected job numbers that came out today.  Except, of course, being the WaPo, they miscalculated.

Huge Shocker of a Jobs Report Released, Media Experts Got It Incredibly Wrong.  When I say shocker, I mean it here.  The jobs report was released this morning with the expectation being that we'd see a 20% unemployment rate.  The New York Times and Politico were already warming up, putting out tweets predicting doom.  The actual numbers turned out to be so far off their predictions that you have to wonder what good these "experts" are at this point.

Consumer Sentiment Holds Up Better Than Expected.  The coronavirus and stock market turmoil have shaken consumer confidence but not as badly as many feared.  The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell by 5 percent to 95.9 in early March.  Economists had predicted a steeper decline to 95.

Main Street Strong — U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims "Unexpectedly Drop".  The stock market is not the U.S. economy.  The stock market is an investment instrument.  Yes, the downstream consequences from coronavirus mitigation efforts means there is likely going to be temporary, very specific, fluxes within the Main Street economy.  Entertainment, hospitality and leisure are likely to see the strongest initial impacts.  However, as noted by the release of weekly jobless claims the U.S. economy is very strong.

Coronavirus By The Numbers.  Stoking fear over quarantines and supply chain disruptions have sent the stock market on a downward roller coaster ride.  One of President Trump's major achievements is the roaring economy.  Taking the stock market down 25% or more may help the Democrats.  But by the numbers, the economy is still roaring, bolstered by the February jobs report of 273,000 added jobs, more than expected, and record low 3.5% unemployment.

Democrats Aren't Going to Like Trump's New Job Growth and Unemployment Numbers.  America's strong job growth is surprising even the experts.  They predicted that there would be 175,000 new jobs in February.  Instead, the economy created 273,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent.  What's more, December and January's job numbers were adjusted upward by 243,000.

Anyone Notice That Trump's Economy Keeps Beating Expectations?  February's jobs report "smashed expectations."  That's how one news site described the latest monthly employment numbers out of the Commerce Department, which showed the economy created 273,000 jobs last month.  Smashing expectations has become a regular feature of the Trump economy.  Anyone care to guess why?  Based on the consensus forecast of economists, the first two months of this year should have seen a total of 335,000 jobs created.  The actual number was 63% higher:  546,000.  For the past four months, job growth has averaged 248,000, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised several previous months' gains sharply upward.  In the best year under President Barack Obama, job growth averaged 250,000 a month.

Another Phenomenal Jobs Report:  "Experts," Corrupt Media Hardest Hit.  Another month, another incredible jobs report that blasts through the projections by all the "experts." — The Labor Department's monthly jobs report is out. [...] February jobs gains in the Trump economy amounted 273,000, beating "expert" projections by a whopping 98,000 jobs.  This during a month in which the Democrats and their corrupt media toadies did everything they could to depress economic growth by whipping up irrational hysteria over the coronavirus.

February Jobs Report: 273,000 Added, Unemployment At 3.5%.  Job numbers in February smashed predictions from economists, who warned that jobs might take a hit due to increasing illness and anxieties stemming from the coronavirus.  Nevertheless, they predicted 175,000 new jobs would be added and that the unemployment rate would remain at 3.6%, according to CNN.

Trump administration touts policy wins in annual report.  The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations across a number of areas, according to the annual Economic Report of the President.  That report along with details from the Council of Economic Advisers shows growth in output, employment, and employee compensation all exceeding pre-2017 forecasts.

The Facts About Trump That Are Deadly For Democrats.  Trump laid out a long list of his economic achievements in his State of the Union address, yet there's actually more.  As we noted here Tuesday, four days after the speech the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us the economy created 225,000 more jobs than expected in January.  The BLS also announced average hourly wages grew 3.1% over a year ago, another mark that beat expectations.  It was also the 18th straight month in which wages increased by at least 3%.

ADP Says 291,000 New Jobs in January; It's More Like 336,000.  The jobs report from ADP on Wednesday [2/5/2020] understated job growth in January.  Based on its own payrolls, the growth of private employment in the United States wasn't 291,000.  It was actually 336,100 when new jobs created by franchises were included.  The new jobs appeared in every sector of the economy, from small businesses to large and from goods-producing to service-providing.  Small businesses added 94,000 new jobs; medium sized companies added 128,000 while large companies (500 employees and up) added 69,000.  Those running franchise operations hired 45,100 new people in January.  Construction and manufacturing added 55,000 jobs, while professional and business services hired 49,000.  Education added 70,000, while the leisure and hospitality sector brought on 96,000 new people.

63.4%: Labor Force Participation at Trump-Era High As Labor Force Grows by 574,000.  President Donald Trump never misses an opportunity to plug the strong employment picture for which he takes credit, and today he earned more bragging rights:  The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy created 225,000 in January, well above estimates.

225,000 Jobs Added in January, and Still No Media-Predicted Recession.  The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report found that the Trump economy is continuing to pump jobs into the market.  And yet, still no evidence of the recession the liberal media have been howling about.  The most recent jobs report found that the U.S. economy added 225,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the month of January, destroying economists' expectations of 158,000 jobs.

U.S. Jobs Top Estimates With 225,000 Gain, Wages Accelerate.  U.S. employers ramped up hiring in January and wage gains rebounded, providing fresh evidence of a durable jobs market that backs the Federal Reserve's decision to stop cutting interest rates and hands President Donald Trump an early election-year boost.  Payrolls increased by 225,000 after an upwardly revised 147,000 gain in December, according to a Labor Department data Friday that topped all estimates of economists.

Private sector job growth blows past Wall Street's expectations in January with 291,000 added.  Private employers added 291,000 jobs in January, soaring past economists' expectations for the best monthly gain in more than five years, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report.  The total far exceeded the 156,000 jobs that economists surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting.  "Mild winter weather provided a significant boost to the January employment gain," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement.  "The leisure and hospitality and construction industries in particular experienced an outsized increase in jobs."

U.S. Housing Starts Jump 16.9% in December, 1.608 Million Units.  The Commerce Department announces U.S. housing starts in December jumped a whopping 16.9 percent in December with 1.608 million units.  Blowing away forecast expectation of 1.375 million units; with the largest gain since 2006.

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop 10,000 to 204,000.  The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week.  Jobless claims fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ended January 10.  Economists had expected a small rise from 214,000 to 215,000.

ADP Payroll Release:  December Employment Jumps +202,000.  A new ADP Payroll Report shows job gains of 202,000 from November to December 2019 far surpassing expectations.  The increase was the largest gain since April '19: "largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services.  Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by mid-sized companies."

Where's the stock market collapse after big, bad Iran threatened to destroy the world?  Stock markets love global stability, because no matter where there is instability, chances are good there are funds invested in the region.  So it made sense — somewhat — that oil prices rose following President Donald Trump's decision to send Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani to hell with a Hellfire missile.  But you'd have thought that the entire financial world was going to collapse.  After the strike, "WorldWar3" was trending all over social media despite the fact that the Iranian regime and military would not last 48 hours under a withering U.S. assault.

One Trillion Dollars Repatriated So Far, Reports Commerce Department.  According to the U.S. Department of Commerce American companies have repatriated more than a trillion dollars of their overseas profits since Trump's "tax holiday" was announced in 2017.  As part of his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act corporate profits held overseas would enjoy a one-time levy of just 15.5 percent tax on profits held overseas instead of the punishing 35 percent rate that existed prior.  As Walter Wriston, former chairman and CEO of Citicorp, famously said, "Capital will always go where it's welcome and stay where it's well treated."  But forecasters at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania weren't impressed.  They predicted "that TCJA (Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) will raise [just] $254 billion in revenue over the next ten years."  Instead, Trump's tax law raised four times that amount in just two years.

Impeachment Aside, Trump Just Had A Great Week.  [Scroll down]  The past week has also seen a string of still more good economic news, which suddenly caused mainstream economists to put aside their dire warnings of a recession next year.  Now they are forecasting steady, if modest, growth in 2020.

Trump's Unexpected Jobs Boom Leaves Dems Incoherent.  Job growth in November came in 79,000 higher than economists had expected, something that has become a regular occurrence under President Trump, where the economy has repeatedly defied what the "experts" forecast. [...] How about unemployment?  The CBO figured the unemployment rate would be 4.7% by now, and climbing.  Instead, it's now down to 3.5% — the lowest since December 1969.

Strong jobs report is a disaster for doomsayers and Democrats.  Friday's November jobs numbers offered another example of why [the Democrats] cannot discuss the issue with any credibility — and also why their challenge to Trump is an uphill climb.  The November jobs report showed that the U.S. economy remains strong, even as the rest of the world slows down.  Not only were an astounding 266,000 net jobs added to the economy last month — far above expectations — but the previous two months were revised upward as well for a combined gain of an additional 35,000 jobs.  Unemployment, already at a level below what economists once thought to be full employment, ticked downward again to 3.5%.  And for Democrats, this is a disaster.

How a Strong Job Market Has Proved the Experts Wrong.  There are a lot of good things to say, and few bad things to say, about the November employment numbers that were published Friday morning [12/6/2019].  Employers added 266,000 jobs, a blockbuster number even after accounting for the one-time boost of about 41,000 striking General Motors workers who returned to the job.  Revisions to previous months' job counts were positive.  The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching its lowest level since 1969.

America Created 266,000 Jobs in November.  The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs for the month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching the lowest level in 50 years.  Economists had expected the economy to add 180,000 jobs and for unemployment to remain unchanged at 3.6 percent, according to Econoday.  Adding to the picture of strength for the labor market, previous jobs numbers were revised up.  September's figure was revised up by 13,000 to 193,000.  October was revised up by 28,000 to 156,000.  Together, that adds 41,000 more jobs than previously reported.

Democrats are running into Trump's economic buzzsaw.  For the past couple of years, the potential for an economic downturn has kept jittery Democrats from getting too nervous about the 2020 presidential election.  Even if Robert Mueller and his Russia investigation didn't get President Trump — and now the Ukraine impeachment investigation — then the American economy surely would.  There was no way four years of Trump's trade wars and general incompetence wouldn't result in a nasty recession and a one-term Trump presidency, right?  Now it's looking more and more like the back-up plan might need a back-up plan.  Wall Street economists and forecasting models don't see more than a one-in-three chance of an economic downturn next year.  There's even a reasonable scenario of an economic upturn.

U.S. adds better-than-expected 128,000 jobs in October as economy holds strong.  The U.S. created 128,000 new jobs in October and hiring was stronger at the end of summer than previously reported, suggesting the economy is still holding up better than expected despite trade turbulence and a slowdown in global growth.  The increase in hiring last month easily topped the 75,000 forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.  Wall Street had expected a six-week GM GM, +1.53% strike to result in a much smaller increase in employment last month.

US adds surprisingly strong 128,000 jobs in October amid GM strike.  The US labor market took a hit in October from an extended strike at General Motors but the economy kept adding jobs at a solid pace, the government reported Friday [11/1/2019].  The steady hiring showed demand for workers remained resilient despite President Donald Trump's protracted trade war with China, which has chilled investment and slowed the economy.

US economy added 128K jobs in October, beating estimates.  The U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%, according to new data released Friday [11/1/2019], overcoming the drag from a monthlong General Motors strike that ended last week.  The monthly employment report from the Labor Department far exceeded expectations from forecasters, who predicted 75,000 jobs would be created in October, a sharp dip from 136,000 in September.  Unemployment was expected to increase slightly to 3.6% from 3.5% last month when the country saw a 50-year low.

It's The Economy, Stupid.  A little more than three years ago, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicted that a Trump presidency would cause the economy to spiral into a recession.  This week, Zandi is predicting that the strong economy could all but assure a Trump reelection.  No wonder Democrats avoid the topic like the plague.  "It's pretty clear that everyone would end up in a pretty bad place," is how Zandi described life under President Donald Trump in June 2016.  That was assuming Congress enacted Trump's agenda, which Zandi said was highly unlikely.  Zandi wasn't alone, of course.  He is, in fact, the epitome of conventional economists.

Trump's Economy: 1.6 Million More Jobs Than The 'Experts' Predicted.  The economy created 136,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of businesses.  The separate household survey, which is used to track unemployment, showed that the number of unemployed dropped by 275,000.  Not only did the job market pull 275,000 off the unemployment line last month, it pulled more than 100,000 who had dropped out of the labor force back into the job market.  This is good news, but it continues to confound mainstream economists, who solemnly predicted at the start of Trump's administration that we faced a "secular stagnation."  Any talk of strong economic growth was a fantasy.  When the economy started to outperform expectations, liberals shrugged it off by claiming that the upturn in growth was all baked in the cake when President Obama was president.  That is false.

Amid Too Much Good MAGAnomic Data, Bloomberg Cancels the Recession.  Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor Department's report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels.  Also last week, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007.  Then came the Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue to expand.  And if that wasn't too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was double expectations.

Consumer Sentiment Rebounds More Than Expected, Dousing Recession Fears.  After plunging in August, U.S. consumer rebounded by more than expected in the first weeks in September, according to data released Friday [9/13/2019] by the University of Michigan.  Consumers felt better about both current conditions and their expectations for the future, according to the preliminary September survey.  Economists had expected the University of Michigan's gauge to bounce to 91 after the August decline to 88.  On Friday, however, the reading was 92.

Retail Sales Jump Higher as Car Sales Shift to Higher Gear and Online Purchases Climb.  Americans boosted their spending on cars and online purchases in August, supporting economic growth and pushing retail sales higher than economists had expected.  Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in August from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday.  The figures include sales at department stores, restaurants, car dealerships, gas stations, and online shops.

Retail Sales Show "Unexpected" Growth in August -AND- Despite Tariffs, Import Prices Drop.  The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.  The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted.  The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.  These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

August Private Sector Payroll Results Exceed Expectations.  ADP Payroll analysis for August reflects continued strong gains in the jobs market beating all expectations from the financial pundits.  The official government stats will be released tomorrow (private and public sector); in the interim the ADP payroll of private sector job creation shows that Main Street continues to be very strong.

US job growth stumbles in August with 130,000 added.  U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in August, missing Wall Street's expectations, as trade uncertainty and slowing global growth darkened the economic outlook.  The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7 percent, near a 50-year low, while the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.2 percent.  Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose 3.2 percent over the past year to $28.11.  That was slightly higher than projections of 3.1 percent.

The Only Reason For Recession? The Prospect Of Trump Ever Leaving Office.  If wishing for a recession could make it so, then the economy would be headed over a steep cliff.  The hate-Trump left's drumbeat for a hoped-for R word has been growing louder and more persistent with every passing day.  They point to polls of economists predicting a 2020 recession and never mind that this is the same crowd of academics who told us that Trump election would cause a "global economic calamity."  These are the people who said the economy was overdue for a recession three years ago.  These are the very same prophets who said the Trump tax cut wouldn't work to create jobs and higher wages.  These were the academic whiz kids who said the economy couldn't grow faster than 2 percent ("the new normal") and who said that manufacturing and mining jobs weren't coming back.

MAGAnomics — Consumer Confidence Index Beats Expectations.  The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing.  The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position.  Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations.

Consumer Spending Beats Expectations.  If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results.  July spending more than doubled expectations.  July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent.  Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy.  Doesn't exactly sound like Main Street is on the precipice of a recession.

US payrolls add 164,000 new workers in July.  U.S. employers hired 164,000 workers in July, bolstering an erratic labor market whose growth remains significantly slower than in 2018.

The Editor says...
Slower growth is still growth.

Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge to 209,000.  The number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market has continued to strengthen following a brief stumble in May.  Initial claims dropped by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended July 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday [7/11/2019].  Economists had expected claims to rise to 223,000.

Jobs, growth, and higher wages leave Democratic contenders searching for excuses.  Friday's [7/5/2019] June jobs report, with its expectations-shattering gain of 224,000 net jobs (including 17,000 manufacturing jobs) and its 4% unemployment rate (effectively full employment), reinforces what was already popularly understood about the Trump-era economy.  Unemployment is historically low.  Job creation is historically strong.  Wages continue rising under Trump after a long period of stagnation under predecessors of both parties.

Four weird things the left is doing in response to the mighty Trump economy.  The economy is roaring as today's non-farm payrolls report shows.  June job gains showed a greater-than-expected 224,000 gain.  The unemployment rate "nudged" higher to 3.7%, solely because 335,000 discouraged workers are finally reentering the workforce. [...] It follows on from Wednesday's news that U.S. stocks hit an all-time high, with the DJIA ending at just under 27,000. Nasdaq and S&P hit all-time highs, too.  And don't forget the record low black, Latino, female, handicapped, and even ex-con unemployment rates.  We've never seen anything like this before.

Boom! America Created 224,000 Jobs in June!  Job creation reignited in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising 224,000 and unemployment ticking up to 3.7 percent.  The June number will be closely watched after a surprisingly poor showing in May, when the U.S. economy was initially reported to have added just 75,000 jobs.

Record 157,005,000 Employed; 19th Record of Trump Era.  After the Fourth of July fireworks, the fifth of July brings another reason for Americans to celebrate.  A record 157,005,000 people were employed in June, the most since February and the 19th record of Trump's presidency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday [7/5/2019].  And the economy added a strong 224,000 jobs in June, well above the estimate of 160,000.  The unemployment rate, the lowest in 50 years, ticked up a tenth of a point to 3.7 percent.

Strong job growth is back: Payrolls jump in June well above expectations.  Payroll growth rebounded sharply in June as the U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs amid concerns that both the employment picture and overall growth picture were beginning to weaken.  The unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% as labor force participation rose, according to the Labor Department.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 165,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%.

Wall Street Wrong Again — Import Prices Decline During Full Year of Import Tariffs.  The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality.  In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping.

U.S. Job Growth Exceeds Estimates: 275,000 New Jobs Created in April.  Economists polled by MarketWatch expected just 177,000 new jobs to have been created by the U.S. economy in April, once again applying rear-view-mirror thinking to their forecasts.  Instead, not only did the economy generate 275,000 new jobs (according to payroll giant ADP with some help from Moody's), but the gains were across every sector and size of business.

Experts predicted economic Armageddon under Trump — where are they now?  The economy is strong, unemployment is low and wages are rising, according to the latest economic data released Friday, which is in stark contrast to what the vast majority of elite economic opinion predicted just a few years ago from a Trump presidency.  The latest unemployment report has joblessness at 3.6 percent.  Where is the Trump Armageddon Squad now?

263k New Jobs:  The Trump Economy Continues To Defy the 'Experts'.  Even before President Trump took office, then Fed chair Janet Yellen was warning that the economy was dangerously close to "maximum employment." Strong job growth going forward, she said in early January, could spark inflation.  In May of that year — almost exactly two years ago today, in fact — the media's favorite economist, Mark Zandi at Moody's, declared that:  "With the economy at full employment and seeming destined to blow past it, the current expansion is likely entering its later stages.  An overheating economy, where tight labor markets result in significant wage and price pressures, has been a necessary condition for all past recessions."  Oops.  The economy created about 5 million new jobs after Zandi made that statement.  The expansion gained strength.  And inflation is nowhere to be seen.

Unemployment Drops To 3.6%, Payrolls Up 263,000, Showing Economy Remains Strong.  U.S. employers added a better-than-expected 263,000 jobs in April, as the nearly decade-old economic expansion shows no signs of slowing.  And the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% — the lowest in nearly 50 years.  In March, the jobless rate was 3.8%.  A monthly snapshot from the Labor Department showed solid hiring in services, construction and health care.

US job growth surges in April, beating expectations with 263,000 added.  The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April, soaring past Wall Street's expectations for an increase of 185,000 jobs, while unemployment fell to the lowest rate since 1969.  The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent, beating analysts' expectations of 3.8 percent.  The labor force participation rate, meanwhile, was little changed at 62.8 percent, from 63 percent the month prior.  Average hourly earnings — which investors were closely watching for signs of inflation — rose by 6 cents to $27.77.  Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by about 3.2 percent, slightly missing expectations of 3.3 percent.

Unemployment hits 49-year low as US employers step up hiring.  Hiring accelerated and pay rose at a solid pace in April, setting the stage for healthy U.S. economic growth to endure despite fears of a slowdown earlier this year.

Private payrolls surge by 275,000 in April, blowing past estimates in biggest gain since July.  Private payrolls grew by 275,000 last month, the biggest increase since July, when they expanded by 284,000.  Economists polled by Dow Jones expected private payrolls growth of 177,000.  Services-providing jobs increased by 223,000 in April, led by a gain of 59,000 positions in professional and business services.  Education and health services companies added 54,000 jobs while employment within the leisure and hospitality industry expanded by 53,000.

312,000 Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning [4/26/2019], showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than analysts expected.  The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain.  With the December jobs number, President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.

US economic growth rebounds at 3.2 percent pace in first quarter.  The U.S. economy grew more quickly than most economists expected during the first quarter of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.  During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts' expectations of 2.5 percent. [...] Stocks rose on the better-than-expected results in pre-market trading.

U.S. economy hit the gas in the first quarter.  The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter, sprinting past analysts' growth forecasts of 2.3 percent.

US economy grew at 3.2 percent in first quarter, exceeding expectations.  Economic growth in the U.S. blew past expectations in the first quarter of 2019, easing fears of an impending slowdown that kicked off the year [...] Economists had expected U.S. GDP to grow roughly 2.5 percent between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019, typically one of the weaker periods for the American economy.

America Created 196,000 Jobs in March, Beating Expectations for 170,000.  The American economy added 196,000 jobs in March.  The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent, the government said Friday [4/5/2019].  Economists had expected 170,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

Are Experts Who Are Always Wrong Really "Experts" At All?  Why are all the "experts" always so [very] shocked by the jobs reports?  So, the U.S. economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, shocking all the eminent high muckety-muck economists, who predicted from their high towers that the number would be more like 180,000.  Of course, it wasn't just these mysterious "expert" economists who were flummoxed by the wonderful report — the fake news media that has been doing its best to tank the U.S. economy since January 20, 2017 was also in a state of shock about it all.  Here's a sampling of the headlines this morning: [...] The hilarious thing about this is that all these same "experts" were also shocked at every jobs report during the Obama years, but they were invariably shocked because the actual numbers were so low when compared to their pie-in-the-sky expectations.

U.S. Job Growth Surged in December With 312,000 Payrolls Added.  U.S. employers added the most workers in 10 months as wage gains accelerated and labor-force participation jumped, reflecting a robust job market that nevertheless faces mounting risks in 2019.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 312,000 in December, easily topping all forecasts, after an upwardly revised 176,000 gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed Friday [1/4/2019].  Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% from a year earlier, more than projected and matching the fastest pace since 2009.  Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose from a five-decade low to 3.9%, reflecting more people actively seeking work.

312,000 Jobs Added In December, Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning, showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than analysts expected.  The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain.  With the December jobs number, President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama.

Hiring surged in December, employers added 312,000 jobs.  US employers added 312,000 jobs in December, well above what economists expected and underlining that the American economy remains strong despite recent market turbulence.  The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as more people were looking for work.  It had been at a 50-year low of 3.7% for two of the last three months.  Employers added 2.6 million jobs in 2018, compared to 2.2 million in 2017.  Revisions to the October and November estimates added an additional 58,000 jobs to the 2018 total.

The Editor says...
Notice the quietly revised numbers from previous months.

December Jobs Report Smashed Expectations With 312,000 Jobs.  Economists predicted we'd only see around 176,000 new jobs in December 2018, but the jobs report showed employers added 312,000 jobs instead.  2018 also went out with a bang by averaging 220,000 new jobs every month, which is the best average since 2015.  Unemployment rate went from 3.7% to 3.9%, but that's because labor force participation increased to 63.1%.

Jobs Report Blows Away All Expectations!  The jobs numbers released Friday [1/4/2019] exceeded expectations of economists and are through the roof!  The economy is soaring despite the Democrats efforts to damage it.  How will they spin this?  U.S. jobs increased by 312,000, far better than the predicted 176,000 jobs.  That's nearly double the amount expected!  Wages also grew 3.2% year-over-year vs. an estimated 3%.

Too high or too low.  Why are the expectations always wrong?
Job growth falls short of expectations in November: 155,000 payrolls created vs 198,000 estimate.  Job growth slowed in November amid fears that economic growth is losing steam.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 for the month while the unemployment rate again held at 3.7 percent, its lowest since 1969, the Labor Department reported Friday.  Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of 198,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady.  Average hourly earnings, a closely watched sign of whether inflation pressures are building, again rose at a 3.1 percent pace from a year ago.  The monthly earnings gain of 0.2 percent fell short of estimates for a 0.3 percent increase.  The average work week edged lower by 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.

The US economy added better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October.  The US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding expectations, the government announced Friday [11/2/2018].  The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, a 49-year low.  Hispanic unemployment reached its lowest rate ever, at 4.4%.  Wages grew 3.1%, relatively robust growth after years of stagnant paychecks.

Wages up 3.1 per cent, 250,000 new jobs and 50-year low unemployment.  U.S. employers added a stellar 250,000 jobs last month and raised average pay by the most in nearly a decade — in a dose of good news for President Trump as he barnstorms the country to try to preserve unified Republican control of national power.  The Labor Department's monthly jobs report, the last major economic data before Tuesday's congressional elections, also showed that the unemployment rate remained at a five-decade low of 3.7 percent.  On a key metric that affects voters, average hourly earnings also increased.  They rose by 0.2 percent from September, an annualized gain of 3.1 percent.  And unemployment remained at a 48 year low.

The Economy Created 250,000 Jobs in October, Wages Rise More Than 3% for First Time Since Recession.  The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, according to Labor Department figures released Friday [11/2/2018].  Economists had predicted the economy would add 190,000 jobs and the unemployment rate would to hold steady at 3.7 percent, the lowest level of joblessness in 49-years.  Friday's data shows that hiring bounced back after an unusually weak September when employers added just 118,000 jobs — the smallest monthly increase in a year.  Over the past 12 months, employers added an average of 211,000 jobs each month.

ADP September Payrolls Grew by 230,000 in September.  Hold on to your MAGA caps there's a winner wonderland ahead.  According to the latest ADP private payroll release today [10/3/2018], private sector payrolls grew by a stunning 230,000 jobs in September.  [They were anticipating 185k]  Massive jobs gains amid small, medium and large sized companies.  This comes on the heels of the latest stats on paychecks which show *average* wage gains around 2.6% over last year.  Key word "average".  There are multiple job sectors with wage increases of four to seven percent; well above the rate of consumer price inflation.

America's GDP advances by 4.2% in 2Q.  America's economy extended its strong momentum in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at a 4.2 percent rate, according to the final revision.  The prior, first revision pegged second-quarter GDP at a 4.2 percent annual rate, above the originally reported 4.1 percent.

Pay No Attention To That 'Unexpected' Good Economic News Over There.  The past week saw more signs that the growing economy is benefiting middle class households, including another jump in household income.  Not that you'd know it from the coverage, which is wall-to-wall Brett Kavanaugh.

Consumer confidence hits 138.4 in September, vs. 132 estimate.  Consumer confidence rose in September, notching its highest level in about 18 years.  The Conference Board's index rose to 138.4 this month from 134.7 in August.  Economists polled by Reuters expected consumer confidence to dip to 132.  "Consumers' assessment of current conditions remains extremely favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth," said said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.  "These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season."  Franco added September's index print is near the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.

The Economy Is Beating The Last Administration's Low Expectations.  Americans are now seeing more jobs, higher wages, and greater investment.  The president of the New York Fed remarked that the economy was neither growing too quickly nor too slowly, describing it as a "Goldilocks economy."  Business optimism has been surging since the last election and the latest National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) survey of small business optimism hit a record high.

Nancy Pelosi Trashes Jobs Report Analysts Call 'Greatest of All Time'.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who would likely become Speaker of the House if Democrats win the midterm elections in November, trashed Friday's [9/7/2018] jobs report — even though Blackrock called it "the greatest of all time."  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 201,000 new jobs in August — more than the 190,000 expected — and unemployment stayed at 3.9%.  Moreover, wages grew 2.9% year-on-year.

US payrolls top growth projections with 201,000 new jobs in August.  The economy gained a better-than-expected 201,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday [9/7/2018].  Economists had predicted 189,000 new jobs, and the report should further solidify the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates amid what officials previously labeled a "strong" U.S. economy.  Experts say job growth should continue into the second half of 2018, fueled partly by last year's tax cuts.

U.S. Wage Gains Pick Up to 2.9% While Payrolls Rise 201,000.  American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.

Higher than Expected Job Growth and Wage Gains in August Signal Economic Strength.  The American economy added 201,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent.  Economists had forecast 191,100 new jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent.  Average hourly earnings increased 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized basis, according to a Department of Labor report released Friday.  That also beat expectations for 2.7 percent wage growth.  In dollar terms, average hourly earnings increased 10 cents from the previous month to $27.16.  Private sector payrolls rose by 204,000.  Mining added 6,000 new jobs.  Construction added 23,000, bringing its total to over 300,000 for the year.

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Plunge to New Post-1969 Record.  Jobless claims fell last week even further to a new post-1969 record of 203,000.  This is the lowest level for initial claims for state unemployment benefits since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000.  The 4-week moving average, considered a better gauge of the labor market because it smooths out week-to-week volatility, fell to 209,500 from 212,250.  This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

There's That Word Again.  Remember during the dark days of the Obungler administration when the Fake News Media always had "unexpected" news about the economy?  Every summer was "recovery summer" but the bad economic news was always "unexpected".  I mean we had the "light bringer", the "almost a god", the Obamessiah in the White House.  What could go wrong?  I had a friend back in St. Louis who voted for Obumbler in 2012 because he "saved us from a depression".  I was shocked when he told me that.  He obviously got his news from the Fake News Media.  I don't believe the myth about the Oblunder recovery.  I maintain that we were in a recession during most of Obongo's term of office.  We were certainly in a jobs recession. [...] Remember, the labor participation during the those disastrous 8 years was very very low.  Under Trump the U6 has been consistently falling and now stands at 7.5%.  Yep!  We are finally in a recovery.  And retail sales are up.  Of course, this was "unexpected".

Economists Think U.S. Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low.  Economists expect the low U.S. unemployment rate to go even lower over the next year, reaching levels not seen in a half-century.  Private-sector economic forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal on average saw the jobless rate — 4% in June after touching 3.8% in May — falling to 3.7% by the end of 2018 and 3.6% by mid-2019.

Nancy Pelosi freaks out over strong jobs report.  The Labor Department announced Friday that June's job report beat expectations.  The U.S. economy added 231,000 new jobs, and over 600,000 new workers entered the workforce as optimism about our nation's future grows.  That's great news to everyone, except House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Jobless claims rise to 231,000, but are still running at historic lows.  New claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose 3,000 to 231,000 to end June, the Department of Labor reported Thursday [7/5/2018], but the report contained good news overall.  The small increase in jobless claims defied forecasters' expectations for claims to drop by 4,000 to 223,000.

Payrolls rise better than expected 213,000 but unemployment rate back at 4%.  The employment part of the economy continued to power forward in June, adding another 213,000 jobs though the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent, according to a government report Friday.  Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a nonfarm payrolls gain of 195,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.8 percent, which had been tied for the lowest since 1969.

Jobs report could signal a 'stampede' back into the workforce.  The better-than-expected June jobs report, which saw the addition of 213,000 new positions to the U.S. economy and an increased labor force participation rate, is evidence of an economy that's returning to work, according to the Council of Economic Advisers chairman.  "What we want to do is reconnect people who were discouraged by the bad economy that President Trump inherited, and we want to bring them back into society and get them back to work," Kevin Hassett said during a FOX Business interview with Charles Payne on Friday.  "It's clear that this is the real message of work, almost the stampede back into the labor department."

Nancy Pelosi Trashes June Jobs Report, Warns of 'Brewing Storm' of Wealth and Opportunity.  Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) trashed the June jobs report — even though it showed rapid job growth, rising wages, and low unemployment.  The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that employers created 213,000 new jobs in June — 22,000 more than economists had expected.  Manufacturing jobs in particular rose by 36,000.  The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.8% to 4.0% — but that was partly because so many people are entering (or re-entering) the labor force.

June jobs growth jumps with 213K jobs added while unemployment rises.  The U.S. economy added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in June, with 213,000 positions created versus analysts' expectations for 195,000.  The unemployment rate moved higher, off an 18-year low, to 4% from May's 3.8%. Economists say the slight move higher is a positive as it reflects more workers entering the workforce after sitting on the sidelines, drawn by the plethora of jobs.  In June, 601,000 Americans entered the labor force, and not all found jobs.

The Editor says...
This is because so many people abandoned the prospect of finding a job while Obama was president, and the workforce participation rate dropped like a stone.  Now that some of those workers are re-entering the job market, it's inevitable that some won't be able to find a job immediately.

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall.  U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May as consumers bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods even as they paid more for gasoline, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly.  Weekly jobless claims continue to fall as the labor market flourishes.  Last week's fall was unexpected as 1,000 fewer Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits than the week before even though economists had predicted an increase.

U.S. Economy Adds 223,000 Jobs In May.  The U.S. added 223,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent, according to Labor Department figures published on Friday [6/1/2018].  Economists forecasted 190,000 additional nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9 percent.  Manufacturing performed strongly, adding 18,000 jobs.  Construction grew by 25,000 new positions.  The Mining sector expanded by 6,000.  Service providers added 171,000 jobs, with an increase in retail of 31,100.

May jobs report surprises to the upside.  The U.S. added a higher-than-expected number of jobs in May — with the Labor Department reporting that 223,000 jobs were added, more than the 188,000 jobs analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting.  Job creation was also above the average 190,000 jobs created each month after the past year.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from April's 3.9%.  The unemployment rate is now at an 18-year low.

April was best month in history for U.S. budget, according to CBO figures.  The federal government took in a record tax haul in April en route to its biggest-ever monthly budget surplus, the Congressional Budget Office said, as a surging economy left Americans with more money in their paychecks — and this more to pay to Uncle Sam.  All told the government collected $515 billion and spent $297 billion, for a total monthly surplus of $218 billion.  That swamped the previous monthly record of $190 billion, set in 2001.  CBO analysts were surprised by the surplus, which was some $40 billion more than they'd guessed at less than a month ago.

Unemployment Falls to Lowest Rate Since 2000 Despite Smaller than Expected Jobs Gains in April.  The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in April and unemployment ticked down to 3.9 percent, the lowest since before the bursting of the tech bubble at the end of the last century.  Economists had forecast nonfarm payrolls to grow by 192,000 and unemployment to tick down from 4.1 percent to 4.0 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.  The unemployment rate had been stuck at 4.1 percent for sixth months.

Nonfarm payrolls increase by 103,000 in March, vs 193,000 jobs expected.  Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in March while the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, falling well short of Wall Street expectations during a month where weather caused havoc on the jobs market, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday.  Economists had been expecting a payrolls gain of 193,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent.  The monthly reading was a huge slip from the 326,000 reported in February.

The Editor says...
Wait a couple of weeks for the "revised" numbers to come out.

U.S. economy adds 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations.  In February, nonfarm payrolls grew by 313,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Over the last three months, job gains have now averaged 242,000 per month.  February's payrolls gain was the largest since July 2016.  February marks the fifth-straight month the unemployment rate has been at 4.1%, which is the lowest level since December 2000.  Economists had expected the report to show nonfarm payrolls grew by 205,000 during the second month of the year with the unemployment rate falling to 4%.

Dow jumps 441 points, Nasdaq hits record as February job growth blows past estimates.  Stocks posted sharp gains Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a record high, as investors reacted to stronger February job growth than expected.

Non-farm payrolls increase by 313,000 in February vs. 200,000 est.  The economy added 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent, according to a Labor Department report Friday [3/9/2018] that could help quell inflation fears.  Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting nonfarm payroll growth of 200,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4 percent.  An increase in the labor force participation rate to its highest level since September helped keep the headline unemployment number steady, as the number of those counted as not in the workforce tumbled by 653,000 to just over 95 million.

Private-sector jobs grow by 235,000 in February, vs 195,000 expected:  ADP/Moody's Analytics.  Job creation saw another powerful month in February, with companies adding 235,000 positions, ADP and Moody's Analytics reported Wednesday [2/7/2018].  The total again defied Wall Street expectations, as economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting payrolls to grow by 195,000.  Growth actually decelerated slightly, as January posted an upwardly revised 244,000 from the initially reported 234,000.

Economy Adds 200,000 Jobs in January, Beating Expectations.  Nonfarm payrolls rose by 2oo,000 in January while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [2/2/2018].  Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to grow by 180,000.

Atlanta Fed Sees GDP Rocketing to 5.4% in First Quarter.  The American economy is on track to grow at a 5.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Monday [1/29/2018].  The regional Fed's forecast rose from last week's 4.2 percent growth following a report on manufacturing that showed more expansion than expected.  The forecast of real consumer spending growth rose from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent, while the forecast of investment growth soared from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent.

Has Anyone Noticed That Trump's Economy Keeps Beating Expectations?  The number of people filing for unemployment benefits last week came in "unexpectedly" low.  Instead of 240,000 claims, there were 236,000, which marked the third week in a row this number has dropped.  That's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.  It's just one measure, after all, and the differences aren't huge.  Except it adds to a pile of "unexpectedly" good economic reports that have been coming out these days.

Small Business Optimism Beats Forecast, Hiring Strongest Since 1999.  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index rose to 105.2, fueled by significant gains in hiring.  The headline number beat the 103.2 consensus forecast.  A seasonally adjusted net 19% said they plan to create new jobs, a gain of 4 points to the highest level since December 1999.  Among the 10 components making up the Small Business Optimism Index, 7 improved, 2 declined and 1 was unchanged.

Now let's look at the unexpectedly bad news under Obama:

Related topic:  Obama's Destruction of America's Economy.

Unemployment Rises To 5 Percent In September; 94,184,000 Out of Labor Force.  The national unemployment rate in September rose to five percent, as the United States economy added only about 156,000 jobs, according to statistics released by the Labor Department on Friday [10/7/2016].  That number is lower than analyst expectations, who predicted a 175,000 boost in jobs.

Job growth in May worst in 5 years.  The unemployment report for May is an absolute disaster.  "Unexpectedly," after economists predicted that 164,000 new jobs would be created, only 38,000 nrew jobs were counted.  While the "official" unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the reason for the drop was familiar:  more people became discouraged about looking for work and dropped out of the labor force entirely.  In fact, that broader measure of joblessness was more than twice the "official" rate:  9.7%.

White House says May jobless report is 'disappointing'.  The White House acknowledged Friday [6/3/2016] that the economy grew at a "disappointingly low" rate in May, blaming a strike by Verizon workers in part for the sluggish performance.  Jason Furman, the top economic adviser to President Obama, said the telecommunications strike and "volatility in monthly data" contributed to job growth that was "considerably below" expectations.  Employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, the lowest gain in five years.

US Retail Sales Fell Unexpectedly In March As Americans Cut Back On Buying Cars.  U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in March as households cut back on purchases of automobiles, further evidence that economic growth stumbled in the first quarter.  The Commerce Department said Wednesday [4/13/2016] that retail sales declined 0.3 percent last month after being unchanged in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1 percent last month.  Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services ticked up 0.1 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February.

Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department said on Thursday [4/2/2015].

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Four-Month High.  More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating companies let go of seasonal workers following the holidays.  Jobless claims climbed by 19,000 to 316,000 in the week ended Jan. 10, the most since early September, from a revised 297,000 in the prior period, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.  The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 290,000.

Thanks, Obama! 1st Quarter GDP Was Actually a Disastrous -2.9%.  So basically it was three times as bad as first reported, but let's all pretend things will improve in the second quarter.  This is all so unexpected.

US economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1.  The first-quarter contraction reported Wednesday [6/25/2014] by the Commerce Department was even more severe than the 1 percent annual decline it had estimated a month ago.

Yellen surprised by jobs report.  In January, the US added just 113,000 new jobs, up from an even more disappointing 75,000 in December.  Both figures were well below economists' forecasts.  Last year, the economy added an average of 194,000 jobs per month.  "I was surprised that the jobs reports in December and January, the pace of job creation, was running under what I had anticipated.  But we have to be very careful not to jump to conclusions in interpreting what those reports mean," she said.

Jobs: The Report, the Spin, and the Fear.  The monthly employment numbers are out and even the New York Times is dismayed.  The economy added 113,000 jobs in January, which was (all together now) unexpectedly short of the 180,000 economists were predicting.

Jobless claims rise more than expected.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday [1/30/2014].  Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Unexpectedly! 4th quarter GDP cratered after Obama reelected.  C'mon now, what did anyone really expect when they re-elected the guy whose ecomomic policy is "destroy America."  The Food Stamp president and his magic unicorns still haven't fixed our economy.  In fact, it's gone into a nosedive.  And it doesn't look like he's in any kind of hurry to change course either.

Dem leader Reid: 'We are in a recovery'.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Thursday said the American economy is "in a recovery" despite the decline in the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).  Reid made the remark after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blamed the White House for the unexpected contraction in the economy.

In the Obama years, bad news has always surprised the media.
Expect the 'Unexpectedly'.  Certainly, a media that wanted to paint a more dire portrait of the economy would have no shortage of material to work with.  There's considerable evidence that America's problems in job creation are much worse than the most widely cited numbers would indicate.

In the age of unexpectedly.  It is, of course, as with all historical periods, difficult to pinpoint exactly when it began.  Perhaps the earliest sign was a Reuters story dated May 19, 2009, which reported that "new U.S. housing starts and permits unexpectedly fell to record lows in April ... denting hopes that stability in the housing market was imminent."

Great Expectations, Disappointing Results.  The media breathlessly report an "unexpectedly" large increase in unemployment applications with inflation rising "faster than expected."  Given the wasteful spending spree we've been on, what do they expect?

What Do You Expect with Obama?  It's funny how the media almost always use the word "unexpectedly" whenever they report this country's state of affairs under the Obama administration.

Obama Double Standard Disease  [is] an affliction that causes the media to ignore, rationalize or trivialize in order to defend, support and advance the tax-the-rich, spread-the-wealth, expand-the-government agenda of President Obama and his party. ... [For example,] When the economy recovered under President George W. Bush, the major news media pronounced it a "jobless recovery."  Now, despite unemployment stalled at 9.7 percent for several months, the same media call it a "surprising" or "unexpected" recovery.

These days, it's best to expect the 'unexpected'.  The national economy is in the tank — unexpectedly.  At least it's "unexpected" by the mainstream media, and professional economists.  After all these months, these pampered pukes remain flummoxed by how clueless their hero Barack Obama has shown himself to be on economic (and other) issues.

The cost of progressivist worship.  Why is it that one government report after another "unexpectedly" bears more bad news about jobs?  Last week, according to Bloomberg, "The number of unemployment claims unexpectedly shot up."  Before that, Reuters reported, "Employers unexpectedly cut jobs."  This "unexpectedly" bit has been going on for quite a while, suggesting that journalists continue to be surprised that President Obama's progressive agenda has failed to revive private-sector job creation.  One might as well say, "Monday unexpectedly will come next week."

For example...
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Unexpectedly Declines.  Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped to a one-year low in September, indicating the biggest part of the economy is being handcuffed by a struggling labor market.

Daffy Ducks.  "In a surprising setback, the nation's unemployment rate climbed to 9.8 percent in November, a seven-month high, as hiring slowed across the economy," the Associated Press reports.  Another surprising setback!

Jobs Don't Matter To the EPA.  The EPA doesn't look at the impact on jobs at all when they issue regulations.  They don't consider jobs to be part of a "detailed economic analysis."  That goes a long way toward explaining why President Obama keeps talking about his "economic recovery" when every week seems to bring fresh "unexpected" news about the shrinking U.S. workforce.

Pro-Obama media always shocked by bad economic news.  Unexpectedly!  As megablogger Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundit, has noted with amusement, the word "unexpectedly" or variants thereon keep cropping up in mainstream media stories about the economy.

Here's an example:
Jobs Data is 'Last Nail in the Coffin' of Economic Recovery.  April's gain was revised downward to 232,000.  The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 9.1 percent in May from 9 percent a month earlier.  Clearly the labor market is in a precarious state.

Obama tunes out, and business goes on hiring strike.  Last week I noted that various forms of the word "unexpected" almost inevitably appeared in news stories about unfavorable economic developments.  You can find them again in stories about Friday's shocking news, that only 54,000 net new jobs were created in the month of May and that unemployment rose to 9.1 percent.  But with news that bad, maybe bad economic numbers will no longer be "unexpected."

Reuters headline: 'New Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise'.  When will bad economic news be "expected?"  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid unexpectedly edged higher last week, stoking fears of a stalled economic recovery even as a separate report showed record U.S. exports in April.

"Unexpectedly bad" ends up being "much worse".  There's little doubt that journalists are getting a bit touchy about using "the U-word," especially since, far more often than not during the past several years, it has meant "unexpectedly bad."  On Tuesday, in the wake of yet another downward slide in consumer confidence after "experts" had predicted improvement, both Bloomberg and the Associated Press let the U-word slip into their initial reports but purged it in later revisions.

U.S. Payrolls Grow at Slowest Pace in 9 Months.  American employers added jobs at the slowest pace in nine months in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent, sending global stocks sliding on concern the world's biggest economy is faltering.

Liberalism: Out of a Job.  Robert Samuelson at the Washington Post provides details of the jobs report.  First of all, few expected the numbers to be this bad.  The job numbers "unexpectedly" fell.  The analysts expected a net gain of 140,000 jobs.  The actual was 18,000 — far below the number needed to keep pace with new entrants.  That was shocking in an of itself.

Completely Expectable 'Unexpectedness'.  Last Friday [7/8/2011], Americans revisited two of the most depressingly recurring themes they have been forced to endure for almost three years.  First, $3 trillion of debt-bloating, economy-killing, spread-the-poverty around Keynesian economics once again proved itself to be a colossal failure.  Second, economists who use the word "unexpected" to describe that which is painfully obvious to everyone else have once again proven they are unrelentingly clueless.  The unemployment rate?  "Unexpectedly" up to 9.2 percent.  Job creation?  18,000, "uber-unexpectedly" below the prediction of 90,000.

Jobless claims rise above expectations.  Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region rebounded in July, but stubbornly high new filings for jobless benefits suggested an expected pick-up in economic growth in the second half of 2011 would be modest.

More unexpectedly bad news:
U.S. Employers Added No New Jobs In August.  Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs last month, down from 117,000 in July.  The unemployment rate stayed, as expected, at 9.1 percent.  The fact that no net new jobs were added in August was yet another dose of bad news for the economy. ... Another disappointing sign was a drop in the average workweek to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours.  Average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent when economists were expecting an increase of 0.2 percent. ... A more accurate portrait of jobless America may be 16 percent to 20 percent, according to some experts.

The Editor says...
This is ABC doubletalk at its finest.  "Economists had been expecting 93,000 new jobs", but there were zero new jobs, just as they expected.  If that makes sense to you, keep watching ABC News.

Retail Sales Stall on Lack of Job Growth.  Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the economy will stall.

U.S. Consumer Prices, Jobless Claims Exceed Forecasts.  The cost of living in the U.S. climbed more than forecast and unemployment claims rose, battering the confidence of Americans squeezed by stagnant wages and higher prices of food, housing and energy.

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise to Highest Level Since June.  Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since the end of June, underscoring the risk of further weakness in the labor market.  Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 that included the Labor Day holiday, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington.

We're Sinking Under Obama's Policies.  Hardly a day goes by without some bit of bad news the media calls "unexpected."  But investors have noticed.

Chevy Volt sales don't have expected spark.  General Motors insists it will sell 10,000 Chevrolet Volts in the U.S. by the end of this year, but as of now, the numbers don't look good.

What Does 99 Weeks of Unemployment Buy?  Every Thursday, the financial markets wait with bated breath for the weekly jobless claims report.  The pundits claim any number below 400,000 is reason for optimism. ... In addition to the magical Thursday number are the always expected words "revised from an initial estimate."  Somehow, the BLS always understates the initial number and then always revises it upward.  Is it even statistically possible to have that happen week after week after week?

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise in Holiday-Shortened Week.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits during the holiday-shortened week, signaling limited recovery in the labor market.  Jobless claims climbed by 6,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Nov. 26 that included the Thanksgiving holiday, Labor Department figures showed today [12/1/2011] in Washington.

Nearly 1 Million Workers Vanished Under Obama.  Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 24,000 last week to 399,000 as more workers lost their jobs, the Labor Department said Thursday [1/12/2012].  At the same time, the economy continues to lose workers.  In the 30 months since the recession officially ended, nearly 1 million people have dropped out of the labor force — they aren't working, and they aren't looking — according to data from Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.  In the past two months, the labor force shrank by 170,000.
[Emphasis added.]

GM laying off 1300 due to low Volt sales.  General Motors Co. announced the temporary suspension of Chevrolet Volt production and the layoffs of 1300 employees, as the company is cutting Volt manufacturing to meet lower-than-expected demand for the electric cars.

US Adds 120,000 Jobs; Unemployment Falls to 8.2%.  Employers added 120,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the smallest increase since October.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm employment to increase 203,000 and the unemployment rate [cnbc explains] to hold at 8.3 percent.

More Americans Than Projected Filed Jobless Claims Last Week.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week and consumer confidence declined by the most in a year, signaling that a cooling labor market may restrain household spending.  Jobless claims fell to 388,000 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures showed today [4/26/2012] in Washington.  The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 35.8 from minus 31.4 the previous week.

Economy in U.S. Expands at 2.2% Annual Rate, Less Than Forecast.  The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the first quarter as a smaller contribution from inventories overshadowed the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than a year.  Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate, Commerce Department figures showed today [4/27/2012] in Washington.

Sitting Out Obama.  We recently saw lots of sit-down strikes and demonstrations — the various efforts in Wisconsin, the Occupy movements, and student efforts to oppose tuition hikes.  None of them mattered much or changed anything.  There is a sit-down strike, however, that has paralyzed the country and has been largely ignored by the media.  Most economists since 2009 have been completely wrong in their forecasts, reminding us that their supposedly data-driven discipline is more an art than a science.

Private Sector Adds Just 119,000 Jobs in April: ADP.  Private-sector employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP that puts a dent into the notion that the jobs market is on the path to a solid recovery.  The report was well below forecasts of 170,000 and comes after a string of stronger numbers.

Job news bad for Obama.  A 25 percent drop in the number of jobs added nationwide from March to April could spell trouble for President Barack Obama's re-election hopes as the economy now struggles to recover at a slower-than-expected pace, local experts said yesterday [5/4/2012].

Obama's weakly job numbers.  The Labor Department reported Thursday [4/26/2012] that initial unemployment claims for the previous week had fallen by 1,000.  This was the sixth reported decline in the last eight weeks.  The overall impression is that the situation is improving, slowly but surely.  Over that same period, however, the actual number of new jobless per week has increased by almost 40,000.  The Obama administration is managing perceptions by revising the weekly numbers upward after the fact.  Every week for at least the last eight weeks, the initial jobless number has been raised after it was released, sometimes significantly.  So while the combined initial figures over that period show a 13,000 new jobless decline, this is only because 49,000 jobless were not included in the initial reports.

The Obama Jobs Disaster Worsens.  April's payroll job creation news was even worse than expected, as hiring slowed to only 115,000 jobs, well below the consensus expectation.  This marks the third consecutive year in which hiring has collapsed in the spring after showing some signs of life in the winter.  Interestingly, not all news outlets are willing to continue covering for the Obama administration.

The awful April jobs report.  Any way you slice or dice it, the April jobs report was terrible — and terribly disappointing.  Employers added just 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, way below the 180,000 Wall Street economists were expecting.

Jobs report a trainwreck.  The U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, well below expectations of 150,000 job gains, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Not only did BLS report terrible numbers for May, but it made downward revisions to previous months job growth numbers, which were already considered weak.

A No Confidence Vote For Obamanomics.  Analysts had predicted the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would climb to 70 in May.  Instead it dropped more than four points to 64.9, the biggest drop since last fall.  It's the latest in another round of disappointing numbers.  Just a few weeks ago, new jobs came in "unexpectedly" low.  And before that, GDP data disappointed.  Underperforming economic indicators have been so common under Obama that the only mystery is why the experts keep getting caught off guard.

Does Anyone Still Like Obama?  In another blow to Obama's reelection bid, consumer confidence, which has been low throughout Obama's presidency, stumbled badly last month after economists initially predicted confidence would go up.

Message from the flight deck.  [Scroll down]  Well, last Friday [6/1/2012] the cockpit warning lights for our economy lit up.  The Labor Department reported that the number of jobs produced in May was a dismal 69,000 — well below predictions.  Additionally, the job creation numbers for March and April were revised significantly downward and, overall, the unemployment rate edged up from 8.1% to 8.2%.

Jobless claims on the rise.  The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits climbed last week, indicating continued trouble for the labor market.  The Labor Department reported Thursday that 386,000 people filed new jobless claims in the week ended June 9, up 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure.  That was 11,000 more than expected.

More Americans Than Forecast File for Jobless Benefits.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the labor market continues to struggle.

Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction.  All 70 economists polled by Bloomberg came in on the high side.  Collapses are never expected.

June Jobs Report Unexpectedly Worse Than Lowered Expectations.  The experts who constantly guess wrong thought we'd create 90,000 jobs in June.  We created 80,000.  Unemployment rate holds at 8.2%.

Next Month's Job Growth Could Be Even Lower.  The Labor Department released jobs numbers for June today [6/8/2012] and the results were disappointing.  Estimates were that non-farm payroll would add around 100K jobs last month.  Instead they added just 80K, which is just over half the number needed to keep up with population growth.

U.S. Corn-Crop Forecast Cut as Drought Dims Supply Outlook.  The U.S. cut its corn-harvest estimate 12 percent and said inventories next year will be smaller than forecast in June as the worst Midwest drought since 1988 erodes prospects for a record crop.  Farmers will harvest 12.97 billion bushels (329.45 million metric tons), down from a June prediction of 14.79 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report.  Analysts expected 13.534 billion, based on the average of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

U.S. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Shrinks for Second Month.  American manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in July for a second month, reflecting a drop in orders that threatens to undercut a mainstay of the recovery.  The Institute for Supply Management's factory index was 49.8 last month, little changed from a three-year low of 49.7 reached in June, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today [8/1/2012].  Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a reading of 50.2, according to the median estimate, just above the 50 mark that separates expansions and contractions.

Jobless claims hold steady.  The number of people filing for their first week of unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, following three straight weeks of increases, the government said Thursday [8/30/2012].  The Labor Department said 374,000 people filed first-time jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 25.  That was slightly more than the forecasts of economists surveyed by  The previous week's reading was raised from the initially reported 372,000.

Weak jobs report fuels QE3 hopes.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% from 8.3%, but only as a result of a significant drop in the number of people looking for jobs.  Economists were expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.3%.

August Jobs Miss Expectations: 96k Jobs Added, Rate at 8.1%.  The Department of Labor released its initial report on August non-farm payrolls this morning [9/7/2012].  Job growth in August was a sub-par 96k jobs created.  The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% though, as more people left the workforce.  Consensus on Wall Street had been for a 125,000 increase in the number of jobs last month.  That number is slightly below the number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth.

Weekly Jobless Claims Jump.  The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, with several states reporting an increase related to Tropical Storm Isaac.

Jobless claims rise more than expected.  Initial claims for unemployment benefit rose more than expected last week, hitting 382,000 compared with a forecast of 370,000 in a Reuters poll and up from 367,000 the previous week.

Jobless Claims to U.S. Leading Index Add to Weakness.  More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits and an index of leading indicators declined for second time in three months, adding to signs of weakness in the world's largest economy.  Jobless claims decreased by 3,000 in the week ended Sept. 15 to 382,000, Labor Department figures showed today [9/20/2012] in Washington.  The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 375,000.  The New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months fell 0.1 percent after a 0.5 percent increase in July.

Durable goods drop worst since recession.  The Commerce Department said on Thursday [9/27/2012] durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession.  Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported 4.1 percent gain.

Business Activity in U.S. Shrinks for First Time Since 2009.  Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in September for the first time in three years, adding to signs manufacturing will contribute less to the economic recovery.

Jobless Claims Hit Four-Month High.  For the third straight week, the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits rose.  Thursday's [4/4/2013] increase was quite dramatic.  Though economists expected new claims to fall to 350,000, claims actually rose to 385,000 — the highest number since November.  The four-week rolling average also increased to 354,250.

Hiring in U.S. Tapers Off as Economy Fails to Gain Speed.  American employers increased their payrolls by 88,000 last month, compared with 268,000 in February, according to a Labor Department report released Friday [4/5/2013].  It was the slowest pace of growth since last June, and less than half of what economists had expected.

The 'New' Economy Takes Shape.  It is amazing just how wrong economists were in their predictions for the number of jobs that were to be created in March.  The "consensus" figure was 200,000 — a far cry from the actual number created which was 88,000.  Totally "unexpected," as usual.

Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery.  The unexpectedly large number of American workers who piled into the Social Security Administration's disability program during the recession and its aftermath threatens to cost the economy tens of billions a year in lost wages and diminished tax revenues.

Economist: Weaker-Than-Expected GDP Might Fuel Slow-Growth Fears.  The economy regained speed in the first quarter, but not as much as expected, heightening fears it could struggle to cope with deep government spending cuts and higher taxes.  Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, after growth nearly stalled in the fourth quarter.  Economists had expected a 3.0 percent growth pace.

Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery.  Anyone hoping for signs of a healthy economic recovery was disappointed by lower-than-expected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2013 — a mere 2.5%, far short of the forecast 3.2%.

GDP grows 1.8% in Q1, below estimates.  The economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the government reported Wednesday [6/26/2013], well below previous estimates of 2.4% growth and missing forecasts.

U.S. Economy Adds 195,000 Jobs in June.  The U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and more than May's figure, perhaps alleviating some concerns that the labor market is stuck in neutral and not contributing enough to the economic recovery.  The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%.  Economists had predicted an increase of 165,000 jobs and that the rate would drop to 7.5% from a month earlier.

Economy added a disappointing 162,000 jobs in July.  July was supposed to mark the starting point for an amped-up economy.  Instead, data on Friday [8/2/2013] showed the recovery remains stuck in second gear.  The Labor Department said that the economy added 162,000 jobs in July — enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 7.4 percent, but short of analysts' expectations.

Canadian Job Creation Triples Forecasts in August.  Canadian employment rose faster than economists forecast in August, gaining for the first time in three months led by part-time work and service industries. [...] Canada's dollar jumped as the gain contrasted with a U.S. report that showed payrolls rose by less than was forecast.

2013 ends with weakest job growth in years.  The job market suddenly looks a lot weaker than economists' had thought. Hiring slumped sharply in December, as the economy added only 74,000 jobs, according to the government.  This was the weakest month for job growth since January 2011 and came as a huge surprise to economists, who were expecting an addition of 193,000 jobs.

All Your Health Are Belong to Us.  "Expect the unexpected" has been good advice for anyone following American economic news since 2009.  That news has usually been bad, and almost always "unexpectedly" so. [...] A cynical observer might suggest that there is an element of deliberate spin involved, with reporters hoping to keep readers' expectations afloat until next month's report.

Warmer Temperatures Lift US Economy.  Economists had expected growth to accelerate in 2014 after two years of slow and steady improvement.  But an unusually bitter winter sent factories, hiring and consumer spending into hibernation.

'Recovering' U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks by 1 Percent.  We know that... err... certain things shrink on contact with the cold, and the winter is among the factors being blamed for an unexpected 1 percent contraction in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  After healthy growth in the fourth quarter of 2013, a slight slowdown was expected at the beginning of 2014, but the downturn caught economists by surprise.  The last economic contraction was during the first quarter of 2011.

More Americans than forecast file jobless claims.  The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to a two-month high, interrupting a steady decrease to the lowest level since before the last recession.  Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 315,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, which included the Labor Day holiday, a Labor Department report showed Thursday [9/11/2014].  It was the highest reading since June 28 and exceeded the Bloomberg survey median forecast of 300,000.  The data are difficult to adjust during holiday periods, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released.

Jobless claims surge to 11-week high.  The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits in the week before Thanksgiving jumped to an 11-week high and topped the 300,000 mark for the first time since early September, fresh government data showed Wednesday [11/26/2014].  Initial jobless claims leaped by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the Labor Department said.  Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast claims to total a seasonally adjusted 288,000.

Hiring surges as U.S. unemployment stays steady at 5.8 percent.  The U.S. economy added a whopping 321,000 jobs in November — far more than analysts had expected — although the national jobless rate remained stuck at 5.8 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday [12/5/2014].  The November number of new jobs was nearly 50 percent higher than the consensus economist forecast, and sparked an early rally on world stock markets.  The Labor Department also revised September's report up by 15,000 to 271,000 jobs, and revised October up by 29,000 jobs to 243,000.

U.S. Adds 142,00 Jobs in September, Badly Missing Expectations.  The U.S. added 142,000 new jobs in September, a disappointing figure that fell well below expectations. [...] The headline unemployment rate held steady 5.1%, according to figures released by the U.S. Labor Department, but the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 62.4% from the prior month, another ominous sign that usually suggests discouraged job seekers are no longer even looking for work.  Economists had forecast 203,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate would remain at 5.1%.

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Updated July 13, 2024.

©2024 by Andrew K. Dart